2018 Sunflower Planting Area and Second-Half Price Trend Forecast

Because the domestic sunflower seed market has remained sluggish over the past two years, most farmers growing sunflower seeds have been operating at a loss. So how large is the 2018 sunflower planting area? Will sunflower prices rise in the second half of the year?

In 2017, the national edible sunflower planting area was nearly 8 million mu;

It was mainly distributed across Inner Mongolia (about 5.7 million mu——in Bayannur and Yikezhao, the commercial crop was mainly export-grade common goods; in Ulanqab, Tongliao and Chifeng, the commercial crop was mainly high-end goods);

** (1.2 million mu——in the three eastern counties, the commercial crop was mainly common goods; in Beitun, Emin and Wenquan, the commercial crop was mainly high-end goods);

Northeast China (500,000 mu——the commercial crop was mainly high-end goods);

Gansu (300,000 mu—in Minqin, Shandan, Yumen and Guazhou, the commercial crop was mainly common goods) and other regions.

Among these, the high-end goods planting area was about 3.2 million mu, accounting for 40% of the planting area.

The common goods planting area was about 4.8 million mu, accounting for 60% of the planting area.

In 2018, the national edible sunflower planting area fell back to about 6.5-7 million mu. In high-end edible sunflower growing areas, land was switched to crops such as corn and soybeans, and the area was also constrained by soil-borne diseases from continuous cropping, so the reduction was relatively large;

The reduction in common edible sunflower growing areas was relatively small.

Affected by factors such as planting returns in 2016 and 2017, market demand, price fluctuations, consumption upgrading and the climate environment, China's edible sunflower planting area this year is expected to decrease to about 6.5-7 million mu, national sunflower seed output is expected to reach 1.35 million tons, and export volume is expected to be about 410,000 tons.

Let us look at this year's planting area in the main sunflower-producing regions across the country:

1. Gansu:

Guazhou: This year's sunflower planting area is about half or more less than last year.

Yongchang County, Jinchang City: This year's sunflower planting area in the region is about 70%-80% less than last year.

Jingtai County:

In the Jingtai area, the oil sunflower area is expected to decrease by 20% this year, mostly with varieties for oil pressing. The oil sunflower planting area is expected to be about 32,000 mu, and the edible sunflower planting area is expected to be about 400 mu.

Huining and Jingyuan Counties:

Last year, the sunflower planting area in Huining and Jingyuan Counties was about 60,000 mu. According to preliminary statistics, the sunflower planting area will decrease this year; combined, the two areas will have about 10,000 mu of sunflower planting area, and the oil sunflower planting area in Jingyuan County will be about 7,000-8,000 mu.

Shandan and Ganzhou areas of Zhangye: According to preliminary statistics, the planting area in these areas is relatively small this year.

Jinta area of Jiuquan: This year's planting area is expected to decrease by about 50%.

Quanshan Town, Minqin: Due to factors such as low returns and soil quality (crop rotation), most farmers switched to other crops.

In summary, the sunflower area in most areas of Gansu has decreased this year, mostly due to factors such as land transfer, generally low returns in 2016 and 2017, and soil quality (crop rotation). The most widely planted crops are corn and wheat. In other areas, due to differences in land and climate, crops such as fennel and naked pumpkin are grown.

2. Broomrape has appeared in some areas of Inner Mongolia.

The local sunflowers in Inner Mongolia are growing well, but the broomrape problem is relatively serious in some areas, affecting about 30% of the local sunflower area. Broomrape problems have been found in Siziwang Banner and Chayouzhong Banner. Please see the detailed planting areas below:

Shangdu area, Inner Mongolia:

Last year, the sunflower planting area was about 200,000 mu; this year it is about 100,000 mu, a decrease by half. Most farmers switched to other crops such as sugar beet and potatoes.

Urad Middle Banner, Inner Mongolia:

Last year, the sunflower planting area was about 150,000-160,000 mu. This year's planting area is expected to be about 100,000 mu, a decrease of 40% from last year. Most farmers switched to corn, pumpkin seeds, etc.

Yindingtu area of Wuyuan, Inner Mongolia:

Last year, the sunflower planting area was 170,000-180,000 mu. In 2018, the local sunflower planting area is about 130,000-140,000 mu, a decrease of 20% from last year.

Xixiaozhao Town, Urad Front Banner, Bayannur City:

This year's planting area is expected to decrease by about one third.

Shulinzi Village, Xin'an Town, Urad Front Banner, Bayannur City:

According to preliminary statistics, the sunflower planting area is expected to decrease by half compared with last year. In addition, because corn has subsidies this year, growing corn brings higher returns and is less troublesome than sunflowers, so many farmers switched to corn and pumpkins.

In the above areas, because farmers' earlier returns were not high and because of the broomrape problem this year, their willingness to plant was low, leading to a decline in planting area.

Preliminary statistics on planting in some areas of Ulanqab:

Xinghe County:

Preliminarily estimated to decrease by about 30%-40% from last year.

Siziwang Banner:

Preliminarily estimated to decrease by about 30% from last year, with many farmers switching to crops such as potatoes and wheat.

Chayouzhong Banner:

Preliminarily estimated to decrease by about 20%-30% from last year, with most farmers switching mainly to corn.

Shangdu County:

Preliminarily estimated to decrease by about 20% from last year, with many farmers switching to crops such as corn and sugar beet.

The preliminary statistics for the above areas all show a decrease compared with previous years, mainly because land problems make planting impossible.

Chifeng area:

The overall planting area in Chifeng is about 30% less than in 2017.

This was mainly affected by last year's market conditions. Some farmers were not very motivated to plant. Due to crop rotation problems, sunflowers could not be planted, and government policies did not allow sunflowers to be planted on riverbank land and forest land, so the land area decreased. Most farmers switched to crops such as sugar beet and sorghum.

Chabugatumu, Beizhen, Jarud Banner, Tongliao:

Last year, the planting area was about 40,000 mu; this year it is about less than 10,000 mu, a decrease of more than 70%.

This was mainly because last year's overall sunflower market conditions made farmers less motivated to plant, combined with the national land rectification issue. In previous years, the policy of returning farmland to forest resulted in a large amount of forest land in this area. This year, the state prohibited the planting of tall crops on forest land, which reduced the available land area and made planting impossible.

3. Now let us look at the situation in the ** region:

The total planting area in the ** Altay region did not decrease much compared with 2017. The planting area in the Bole region increased significantly compared with previous years, while the area in the Tacheng region decreased. Near Changji, Wujiaqu, 103 and Fukang, the edible sunflower planting area this year is about 10,000 mu, while the area of seed melon and pumpkin seeds increased.

The sunflower planting area in the Altay region this year is about 700,000 mu.

Jimusar County, Changji:

This year's planting area is about two thirds less than last year. This was mainly because local weather conditions in recent years affected the overall quality of sunflowers, with small seeds and low prices, which reduced farmers' willingness to plant and led most of them to switch to other crops.

Tacheng region:

Because last year's returns were not high, the planting area also decreased. In the Karamay region, almost no one grows sunflowers; the planting area of seed melon seeds and pumpkin seeds is not large, and this year cotton is mainly grown.

Karamay:

Last year, the sunflower planting area was about 600,000 mu. Last year farmers' returns were not high, and this year the climate was unsuitable, so farmers' willingness to plant was low. The planting area decreased by 50% from last year. This year, the edible sunflower planting area is expected to be about 300,000 mu, and most of the remaining land was switched to cotton.

Beitun, Altay:

This year, the edible sunflower area is about 120,000 mu, a decrease of 20% from last year. Many farmers switched to corn, seed melon, pumpkin, wheat, etc.

Qitai County, Changji: This year, the edible sunflower planting area is about 150,000 mu, a decrease of 25% from last year, with many farmers switching to corn, wheat, etc.

Last year, the oil sunflower planting area was about 30,000-40,000 mu. This year it is preliminarily expected to decrease by about 30%. This is mainly because the state restricts water use, some land cannot be used to grow oil sunflowers, and last year's oil sunflower market was average, so some farmers had low returns and were not highly motivated to plant this year, leading to the decrease.

Fangcaohu Farm, Hutubi County:

Last year, the farm's sunflower planting area was about 2,000 mu; this year it is about 1,000 mu, half of last year's. Due to yield problems, most farmers switched to cotton this year.

Due to rectification issues, the sunflower planting area has decreased in most areas, but there are still areas where the sunflower planting area has increased.

Wenquan County, Bole City:

Last year, the local planting area was about 260,000 mu. This year, large growers from other parts of the country came to the area to contract land for sunflower planting, so the local edible sunflower area increased. The total edible sunflower area in the Wenquan area is expected to be about 360,000 mu, an increase of about 50% from last year.

Emin County, Tacheng region:

Last year, the edible sunflower planting area was about 100,000 mu. Last year the local climate was suitable and the harvest was good, so farmers were more motivated to plant this year. The sunflower planting area in the Emin area is expected to increase to about 120,000 mu this year.

Wenquan County, Bole City:

Last year, the local planting area was about 260,000 mu. The local soil quality is excellent, and many large domestic growers contract land in Wenquan to grow sunflowers. This year, the edible sunflower planting area has increased, and the total edible sunflower area in the Wenquan area is expected to increase to about 360,000 mu, an increase of 50% from last year.

In the Tacheng and Emin areas, the 168th Regiment had a local planting area of 90,000 mu last year. Farmers' returns were relatively high, and this year the sunflower planting area increased to 120,000-130,000 mu.

So will this year's planting area cause sunflower prices to rise in the second half of the year?

From the above data, the sunflower planting area in Inner Mongolia decreased considerably. Last year, the sunflower planting area in Inner Mongolia was about 5.69 million mu, accounting for 75% of the national planting area; it is the largest main producing region for sunflowers.

Affected by the planting area, output is expected to decrease somewhat in the second half of the year. Under normal circumstances, when the sunflower volume is small, the market tends to be stronger;

But this year, 80% of the varieties planted in the Bayannur area are high-yield varieties. If they are not greatly affected by the climate, output will not be too low;

Furthermore, in the first half of this year, domestic food roasting and snack enterprises were not highly active in purchasing, and surplus goods were not consumed quickly. In the first half of 2018, most surplus sunflower goods went to export;

However, domestic trading is about to end recently, and the market is finishing in a stable-to-strong state.

Domestic surplus goods are about to be used up, while new goods are about to come onto the market, so there is a relatively loud call in China for sunflower prices to rise;

But from the current stage, domestic sales inventories are sufficient, sales volume is small, and restocking demand is low. Therefore, it is difficult to predict the rise or fall of sunflower prices in the second half of the year in the short term.