Southern japonica rice prices under pressure, limited room for further gains

By the end of December, the japonica rice harvest in the south was basically complete, enterprises accelerated their intake into storage, and purchasing entered its late stage. Market prices trended upward steadily, but the gains were limited. As New Year's Day and the Spring Festival approach, grain purchasing and selling, processing enterprises and traders have successively entered the market to purchase, demand has expanded, the japonica rice market has seen a recovery in purchasing and sales, and prices have risen slightly. At the same time, the implementation of the state purchasing policy not only effectively alleviated the difficulty farmers face in selling grain, but also effectively accelerated the circulation of market grain sources, helping japonica rice prices move closer to the minimum purchase price.

Although japonica rice prices have risen steadily, constrained by the long-standing pattern of "strong rice, weak milled rice," grain processing enterprises have reduced their willingness to hold inventory, which to a certain extent suppresses the room for japonica rice prices to rise. In the short term, the room for price increases in the southern japonica rice market is limited.

According to price monitoring by the Anhui Provincial Grain Bureau, last week (December 16 to 22), the average purchase price of japonica rice in the Anhui region was 147.5 yuan per 100 jin, and the out-of-warehouse price was 151.2 yuan per 100 jin, up 0.3% and 0.2% respectively from the previous week; the wholesale price of japonica milled rice was 222.0 yuan per 100 jin, down 1.0% from the previous week, and the retail price was 258.8 yuan per 100 jin, flat with the previous week; japonica rice prices rose slightly while japonica milled rice prices fell slightly, with a price gap of 3-5 yuan per 100 jin between ordinary japonica rice and high-quality japonica rice; because this year's japonica rice from different production areas differs greatly in milling yield, impurity content and moisture content, the purchase prices of japonica rice vary widely. Among them: the purchase price of japonica rice in the Wuhu area was 148 yuan per 100 jin, down 0.6% from the previous week; the purchase price of japonica glutinous rice was 163 yuan per jin, down 0.5% from the previous week; the wholesale price of standard No. 1 japonica milled rice was 224 yuan per 100 jin, and the retail price was 254 yuan per 100 jin, both flat with the increase; the wholesale price of japonica glutinous milled rice was 257 yuan per 100 jin, down 0.7% from the previous week. In the Hefei market, the purchase price of japonica rice was 146 yuan per 100 jin, flat with the previous week; the out-of-warehouse price was 152 yuan per 100 jin, flat with the previous week; the wholesale price of first-grade japonica milled rice was 227 yuan per jin, down 0.09% from the previous week; the retail price was 253 yuan per 100 jin, down 0.08% compared with the previous week. In the Ma'anshan area, the wholesale price of locally produced japonica milled rice was 230 yuan per 100 jin, and the retail price was 260 yuan per 100 jin, flat with the previous week; the wholesale price of Northeast japonica milled rice was 236 yuan per 100 jin, and the retail price was 280 yuan per 100 jin, flat with the previous week; the wholesale price of Northeast-produced long-grain fragrant japonica milled rice was 300 yuan per 100 jin, and the retail price was 360 yuan per 100 jin, flat with the previous week.

It is also understood that recently the japonica rice market price in the Jiangsu region has generally operated steadily, with slight rises and falls. According to monitoring on December 20, the average purchase price of japonica rice in the Jiangsu region was 149 yuan per 100 jin, up 1 yuan per 100 jin year-on-year from the previous week, and the average ex-factory price of japonica milled rice was 205 yuan per 100 jin; the trends of japonica rice and milled rice in different areas within the province differed slightly. By region: rice prices in southern Jiangsu and central Jiangsu fell slightly, while the rice market in northern Jiangsu remained stable. Among them: the purchase price of japonica rice in Nanjing was 145 yuan per 100 jin, and the wholesale price of high-quality japonica milled rice was 225 yuan per 100 jin, flat year-on-year with the previous week. The purchase price of late japonica rice in Wuxi was 154 yuan per 100 jin, and the wholesale price of ordinary japonica milled rice was 213 yuan per jin, both 1 yuan per 100 jin lower year-on-year than the previous week. The purchase price of japonica rice in the Nantong area was 150 yuan per 100 jin, 1 yuan per 100 jin lower than the previous week. The purchase price of japonica rice in the Yangzhou area was 149 yuan per 100 jin, down 2 yuan per jin from the previous week's average price, and the average wholesale price of japonica milled rice was 211 yuan per 100 jin, flat year-on-year with the previous week. The purchase price of ordinary japonica rice in the Xuzhou area was 145 yuan per 100 jin, flat year-on-year with the previous period. The purchase price of high-quality japonica rice in the Lianyungang area was 145 yuan per 100 jin, 1 yuan per jin higher year-on-year than the previous week. The purchase price of japonica rice in Yancheng was 155 yuan per jin, flat with the previous week. The purchase price of japonica rice in Suqian was 135 yuan per jin, flat year-on-year with the previous week.

As the japonica rice harvest in southern production areas ends, the supply of new-season japonica rice in the market continues to expand, and with the concentrated listing of new-season mid-to-late indica rice and large quantities of cheap imported rice, southern market japonica rice supply and prices face pressure. In some areas, japonica rice market prices have shown a declining trend, grain processing enterprises' profits have fallen, and their purchasing enthusiasm has declined. At the same time, because the moisture content of the later japonica rice harvest was good, generally around 18%, which can meet farmers' short-term storage conditions, some farmers have begun to hold back grain and be reluctant to sell. It is expected that in the short term the japonica rice market will continue to face pressure, with prices mainly fluctuating within a range, and the magnitude limited.