In October, surface soil moisture was poor across most of the northern wheat region, unfavorable for wheat sowing

Since September, temperatures across most of the northern winter wheat region have been close to slightly above the same period in normal years, with ample sunshine, and the maturity period of autumn-harvested crops has been close to normal or slightly earlier; at present, deep soil moisture is relatively good across most of the northern winter wheat region, laying a good foundation of subsoil moisture for winter wheat sowing and emergence; however, over the past 10 days, precipitation in southern North China and most of the Huang-Huai region has been more than 50% below normal, and moisture in the 10 cm layer has declined rapidly. At present, surface soil moisture is poor across most of the wheat region, which is unfavorable for wheat sowing. It is expected that in October, temperatures across most of the northern winter wheat region will be above normal, favoring winter wheat sowing and emergence; however, precipitation will be below normal across most areas, with precipitation in western North China and northeastern Northwest China 20-50% below normal, and soil moisture will continue to decline, which is unfavorable for wheat sowing and emergence. It is recommended that all localities seize the fine weather to harvest and clear the fields in a timely manner and prepare the land for planting; during the suitable sowing period for winter wheat, according to changes in weather and soil moisture, seize precipitation opportunities as much as possible and sow winter wheat while moisture is available; wheat regions with persistently below-normal precipitation need to carry out drought-relief work in advance to ensure autumn sowing.

I. The maturity period of autumn-harvested crops in most of the northern winter wheat region was normal to slightly early, allowing timely field clearing

Since September, temperatures in the northern winter wheat region have been close to normal, with ample sunshine, and multiple significant precipitation events occurred in North China and the eastern part of Northwest China; meteorological conditions favored full grain filling and maturity of autumn-harvested crops. At present, the main preceding crops in the northern wheat region, such as spring maize, summer maize, and soybean, are in the maturity and harvest period. In most areas, crop development stages are close to normal or earlier, and harvest progress is close to normal or slightly slower, but field clearing can basically be completed before the suitable sowing period for winter wheat.

II. Deep soil moisture storage was relatively good across most of the northern winter wheat region, but surface moisture has declined rapidly recently

In August, precipitation across most of the northern winter wheat region was 50-100 mm, with precipitation of 100-250 mm in parts of central Hebei, central and eastern Shandong, and central Henan, and soil moisture storage in most farmland was relatively sufficient. Since September, precipitation in the eastern part of Northwest China and central and northern North China has been 50-100 mm, above the same period in normal years, further replenishing farmland soil moisture and laying a good moisture foundation for wheat sowing; however, precipitation in most of the Huang-Huai region was less than 25 mm, 30-80% below normal, and especially in the past 10 days, precipitation in the Huang-Huai region and southern North China was less than 10 mm, with moisture in the 10 cm layer declining rapidly. At present, surface soil moisture is on the poor side across most areas.

Soil moisture measurements on September 30 show that soil moisture in the 20-50 cm layer is relatively good across most of the northern winter wheat region, providing relatively good subsoil moisture for winter wheat sowing and emergence; however, the area with insufficient soil moisture in the 10 cm layer is relatively large. In parts of central and northern Shaanxi, southern Shanxi, northern and eastern Henan, southern Hebei, southwestern Shandong and the Shandong Peninsula, and northern Anhui, surface soil moisture is on the poor side, which is unfavorable for winter wheat sowing and emergence. Soil moisture in 2015 was poorer than the same period in 2014 and also poorer than the same period in 2013.

III. In October, temperatures will be above normal and soil moisture will decline across most of the northern winter wheat region, unfavorable for wheat sowing

It is expected that temperatures in October will be above normal, favoring autumn harvest and field clearing and land preparation. At present, winter wheat sowing has already begun in Xinjiang, Gansu, Shaanxi, and Shanxi. It is expected that in October, temperatures across most of the northern winter wheat region will be above the same period in normal years, with western North China, northwestern Huang-Huai, and the eastern part of Northwest China 1-2°C above normal. Heat conditions will be good, with many fine days, favoring autumn harvest and field clearing and land preparation.

During the wheat sowing period, surface soil moisture will be relatively poor across most of the northern winter wheat region, unfavorable for winter wheat sowing and emergence. It is expected that in October, precipitation across the northern winter wheat region will be below the same period in normal years. In western North China, northeastern Northwest China, and northwestern Huang-Huai, October precipitation will be 10-50% below the same period in normal years, soil moisture in the northern winter wheat region may continue to decline, and the area with poor soil moisture will expand, unfavorable for winter wheat sowing and emergence.

According to changes in weather and soil moisture, winter wheat in the north should be sown at the suitable time while moisture is available during the suitable sowing period. Based on a comprehensive analysis of factors such as field clearing of autumn-harvested crops, soil moisture, and future weather and climate trends, it is expected that this year's suitable sowing period for winter wheat in the north will mainly be concentrated in early to mid-October. Among these, the suitable sowing period for most of Northwest China and North China and northern Huang-Huai will be from late September to early October, while sowing in southeastern Northwest China and southern Huang-Huai will take place in mid-October. It is expected that temperatures in the northern winter wheat region will be above normal in October. To avoid excessive growth of wheat before winter, all localities can, during the suitable sowing period and according to actual local production conditions, seize future precipitation opportunities to improve soil moisture and sow at the suitable time while moisture is available.

IV. Agricultural production recommendations

First, the northern winter wheat region should seize the fine weather to harvest mature crops in a timely manner, clear fields and prepare land in a timely manner, and do a good job in preparing for wheat sowing.

Second, in October, most of the northern winter wheat region will have high temperatures and little rain, and all localities should do a good job in moisture conservation and drought relief; especially in areas currently with poor soil moisture, they should seize precipitation opportunities to sow while moisture is available or promptly create moisture for sowing, so as to ensure smooth sowing and emergence of winter wheat.