-
Soybean imports hit record highs repeatedly, why is domestic soybean mired in difficulty?
In recent months, China's soybean imports have repeatedly hit record highs. The high foreign dependence of soybeans has left domestic soybeans mired ever deeper in difficulty. In the first 8 months of this year, China imported a cumulative 52.39 million tons of soybeans, once again setting a record for the same period in history, of which soybeans from Brazil accounted for
-
Soybean Imports Under Pressure: Cost Rises by 3 Million Yuan per Vessel
On August 11, news that Russia would lower tariffs on related agricultural products roiled the commodities market. Coincidentally, the People's Bank of China's sharp downward revision of the RMB central parity rate during the same period also gave some agricultural products a different performance. Zhuochuang Information told a Securities Daily reporter that, affected by the RMB depreciation, Chicago soybean futures surged 3.5% on Monday before plunging 2.6% on Tuesday. Apart from the impact on the futures market, soybean imports are also expected to be "badly hurt" later on. As the world's largest buyer of soybeans, China has had an import dependence rate for soybeans above 50% over the past 15 years; especially in the past six years, China's foreign dependence on soybeans has exceeded 80%, and in 2014 the foreign dependence rate was around 86%. Without considering foreign exchange arbitrage, if domestic soybean traders import soybeans at the latest exchange rate, the cost per vessel increases by about 3 million yuan. Although importing enterprises can use foreign exchange arbitrage tools to reduce exchange losses, if the RMB continues to depreciate, enterprises' import costs will face the risk of a sharp rise. <p> </p> <p> On August 11, news that Russia would lower tariffs on related agricultural products roiled the commodities market.</p> <p> Coincidentally, the People's Bank of China's sharp downward revision of the RMB central parity rate during the same period also gave some agricultural products a different performance. Zhuochuang Information told a Securities Daily reporter that, affected by the RMB depreciation, Chicago soybean futures surged 3.5% on Monday before plunging 2.6% on Tuesday. Apart from the impact on the futures market, soybean imports are also expected to be “badly hurt” later on. As the world's largest buyer of soybeans, China has had an import dependence rate for soybeans above 50% over the past 15 years; especially in the past six years, China's foreign dependence on soybeans has exceeded 80%, and in 2014 the foreign dependence rate was around 86%. Without considering foreign exchange arbitrage, if domestic soybean traders import soybeans at the latest exchange rate, the cost per vessel increases by about 3 million yuan. Although importing enterprises can use foreign exchange arbitrage tools to reduce exchange losses, if the RMB continues to depreciate, enterprises' import costs will face the risk of a sharp rise.</p> <p> Soybean imports remain at a high level</p> <p> A Securities Daily reporter learned from Zhuochuang Information that Russia has stated that, in order to honor its commitments to the World Trade Organization (WTO), it will continue to gradually lower export tariffs on major oilseeds, starting from September 1, 2015. The soybean export tariff will drop to zero, and the rapeseed export tariff will drop to 6.5%, but no lower than 11.4 euros per ton. The sunflower seed export tariff will drop to 9.88%, but no lower than 14.81 euros per ton.</p> <p> In this regard, Zhuochuang Information believes this may change the pattern of China's sources for imported soybeans.</p> <p> A Securities Daily reporter checked data from the General Administration of Customs. Looking at import volume data, soybean imports showed a surge in July. The data shows that 9.5 million tons of soybeans were imported in July, while from January to July cumulative imports reached 44.66 million tons, with import volume up 7.1% year on year and value down 19.7% year on year.</p> <p> Checking data from other months so far this year shows that although soybean import data fluctuated repeatedly in the first half of this year, with differing degrees of year-on-year increases and decreases, the July import volume increased noticeably when the data are ranked.</p> <p> Separately, media reports said the surge in soybean imports was mainly because South American soybeans were cheap, stimulating increased purchasing demand from Chinese buyers. The China National Grain and Oils Information Center forecasts that soybean imports in August and September will total 13 million tons, higher than 11.06 million tons in the same period last year.</p> <p> Corresponding to the surge in imports is the continuous shrinking of the domestic soybean market. The China National Grain and Oils Information Center expects China's soybean output next year to fall to 11 million tons, below this year's 12.15 million tons.</p> <p> While news of Russia's tariff cut is still echoing, the RMB depreciation has added another layer of meaning to soybean import and export business. “The RMB has depreciated continuously for two days by a relatively large margin, which is a major positive for foreign trade enterprises. In recent years, the RMB has kept appreciating, while international market demand has been sluggish, dealing a relatively large blow to China's exports. In July this year, exports fell 8.3% year on year. After the RMB depreciation, the price advantage of China's exported goods will be somewhat strengthened, which is conducive to improving the performance of foreign trade enterprises. In fact, the main purpose of this central bank-led RMB depreciation is to promote exports.” Guo Fanli, research director at China Venture Consulting, explained to Securities Daily. Specifically for agricultural enterprises, Guo Fanli believes enterprises should actively raise the added value of their products and develop mid- to high-end business. This RMB depreciation is a good opportunity for China's agricultural processing import and export enterprises to rebuild their brand image. Agricultural processing import and export enterprises can export some mid- to high-end products, and because of the RMB depreciation, these mid- to high-end products are expected to be welcomed by the market for their relatively high cost-performance ratio. Once foreign markets have relatively high recognition of China's exported mid- to high-end products, even if the RMB appreciates in the future, it will not have a relatively large impact on agricultural processing import and export business.</p> <p> Some agricultural analysts also explained in interviews with Securities Daily that the current agricultural production model determines that domestic soybeans regaining market share will not happen overnight.</p> <p> The phenomenon of “concentrated arrival at ports” will continue</p> <p> Changes in the soybean market structure have also given the current market clear characteristics. A research report from Guotai Junan shows that China's soybean imports continue to show the phenomenon of “concentrated arrival at ports”; therefore, China's soybean imports are expected to fall month on month in August, but in absolute terms they are still expected to remain in a high range.</p> <p> Because China's soybean imports surged in July, setting the highest monthly import volume ever recorded. Guotai Junan believes that in the first seven months of 2015, there were some keywords to follow in global soybean trade: China's soybean imports will fall month on month in August, with import volume estimated at around 8 million to 8.5 million tons; China's soybean import volume once again set a record high for the same period in history, and China's soybean imports are expected to gradually decline in August.</p> <p> Now, with changes in Russia's soybean export tariff policy, the market structure may also change. Zhuochuang Information believes that China's main soybean importing countries are currently the United States, Brazil and Argentina. Looking at import data from the first half of the year, the three countries accounted for 97% of import volume, while Russia accounted for only 0.72%. However, affected by Russia's soybean exports soon facing zero tariffs, “plus the fact that in recent years farmers in Northeast China have tended to go to Russia to grow soybeans, it is expected that China's soybean imports from Russia will increase somewhat later on.”</p> <p> </p>
-
Soybean target price policy trial-tested for the first time, mechanism still needs improvement
Soybeans are closely tied to people's daily lives and offer considerable economic benefits. Since joining the WTO, China, once a major soybean producer, has become a fertile market for foreign soybeans, especially American ones, and some foreign companies have gained de facto pricing power over soybean purchases. And
-
Rapeseed Production Halved, China May Repeat the Soybean Industry's Mistakes
Anhui is a major rapeseed-producing region in China, and Hefei, Chuzhou and Lu'an in central Anhui are key rapeseed-growing areas. Zhang Yongwen, a large-scale farmer in the area, told reporters that few people there now grow rapeseed, with wheat and rice being the main crops.
-
Northeast China's soybean industry in crisis: can the direct subsidy policy save it?
Soybean planting area continues its overall downward trend. During on-the-ground research, reporters learned that compared with last year, Heilongjiang's soybean planting area is still declining this year. However, affected by the sustained low-temperature and humid weather earlier in the season, some low-lying areas have not yet sown corn and can only switch to soybeans later.
-
Wheat market purchasing and sales will become more active, while soybean prices in producing areas will continue to rise
Wheat market purchasing and sales will become more active. As the main-body role of market-supporting enterprise purchasing in the market gradually becomes evident. After market-supporting purchasing in various regions enters normal operation, since enterprises with market-supporting purchasing qualifications have strong financial backing, they will become the main purchasers in the later market, and other
-
Soybean farmers hope for a higher soybean target price
According to a sample survey of 5 counties (cities) in Heilongjiang Province, the grain-planting intentions of surveyed households showed a "two increases and one decrease" trend, namely an increase in rice, an increase in corn, and a decrease in soybeans, with soybeans down 13.9% among surveyed households. The reasons include the following aspects: First, rice and corn still have an efficiency advantage.
-
Soybean procurement progress in main producing areas as of April 30 is far below the same period last year
According to statistics, as of April 30, grain enterprises of various types in 14 main mid-to-late indica rice producing areas including Hubei and Anhui had purchased a cumulative total of 28.21 million tons of newly harvested mid-to-late indica rice, a decrease of 1.52 million tons from the same period the previous year; grain enterprises of various types in 7 main japonica rice producing areas including Heilongjiang and Jiangsu had purchased a cumulative total of newly harvested
-
Soybean meal market remains sluggish, still a long way from emerging from the cold winter
Since January, due to the favorable bumper harvest prospects in South American soybean producing regions, global soybean supply pressure has increased significantly. In mid-January, the main US soybean contract fell below the 1000 cents/bushel integer mark and continued to decline. It is expected that US soybeans will continue to test the 900 cents/bushel support level in the future. With US soybeans remaining weak, Dalian soybean meal can hardly stay unaffected and will continue to follow US soybeans downward.
-
China's soybean industry suffers an irreparable disaster
It is not an easy thing for China to feed itself: because China has 21% of the world's population but only 9% of the world's arable land. China's most fertile land depends on irrigation and is therefore vulnerable to water pollution, floods or drought. China's water resources are quite scarce
条件筛选