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Is a Banana Shortage Coming? China's Market May Face a Banana Shortage in the Future
Bananas are undisputedly the staple commodity of the fruit industry. Due to declining supply from major domestic production areas and climate change, the persistently high "bull market" of 2014 brought far-reaching structural changes to the entire industry. Although supply and demand in the domestic market have returned to stability this year, industry insiders
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Summer bird flu threat resurfaces, vaccine company stock prices rise in response
Last weekend, rumors of a bird flu threat once again circulated in the poultry farming market: according to some media reports, Fogang County in Qingyuan City recently reported an outbreak of highly pathogenic H5N6 avian influenza; all 38,110 birds at 13 poultry farms within the epidemic zone were culled.
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China's grain output, imports and stocks all rising at once: what new problems does this pose?
In 2014, China's annual grain output achieved an 11th consecutive increase, basically remaining above 600 million tons, and at the same time, China's grain imports also grew rapidly. The reporter learned that over the whole of last year, China's grain imports exceeded 100 million tons for the first time, while according to data released by the General Administration of Customs on the 8th
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Internet finance is actively moving into villages, but development challenges must be faced
Under the "Internet Plus" boom, more and more Internet companies are beginning to test the waters in rural finance. Facing a market potential of one trillion, rural Internet finance currently faces many challenges in areas such as information symmetry and risk control. Reaching villages and households is just getting started. This online lending is very good,
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The city already owes the countryside too much; the urban-rural gap urgently needs to be faced squarely
People condemn the parents, hoping to hold them accountable for failing to fulfil their responsibilities; people say that companionship is love, and that companionship matters more than earning money. In urban society, such criticism and reproach are unproblematic; but, face to face with rural migrant workers, I cannot bring myself to say it. Migrant children, left-behind
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After twelve consecutive years of bumper grain harvests, new challenges still need to be faced squarely
The development of agriculture has once again reached a moment for reflection. In the first half of the year, as the national economy faced sustained pressure from slowing growth, good news came once again from agricultural and rural development: China's summer grain production reached a total national summer grain output of 141.066 million tons (282.13 billion jin), an increase of
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How to develop cultural agriculture and enhance agricultural benefits?
In the face of a complex and ever-changing domestic and international environment, and increasingly fierce competition in international trade of agricultural products, choosing the development path of cultural agriculture can powerfully advance the development of modern agriculture, enhance the cultural connotation of regional agriculture, and promote economic and social development. The scientific connotation and characteristics of cultural agriculture
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What opportunities and challenges does agriculture going global face?
The theme of my speech at this year's annual conference is that Chinese agriculture should go global. Why should Chinese agriculture go global? Let me start with the reasons. Everyone knows that our country's agriculture has been growing for more than ten years, and none of you here feel that our country's grain supply will be a problem.
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Soybean meal market faces pullback pressure after weather-driven speculation
Over the past two months, soybean meal futures contracts have seen a sharp decline followed by a rapid rebound, and the current price is already close to the high at the start of the decline. Does this mean the soybean meal market has already reversed? First, let us analyze the reasons for the earlier decline in soybean meal: First, sluggish domestic demand for soybean meal led to price declines. Weak demand in the livestock and aquaculture industry constrained soybean meal consumption. China's hog inventory and breeding sow inventory fell sharply year on year; prices of meat, eggs and poultry were sluggish, and farming losses were severe; demand in aquaculture slowed, constraining demand for protein meal. Second, soybean meal supply increased substantially, spot prices fell sharply, some basis contracts faced default risk, and selling off occurred.</P><P> Now let us look at the reasons for the rapid rise in soybean meal. The author believes that the rise in soybean meal came partly from a return of prices after the earlier excessive decline; on the other hand, it came from speculation driven by heavy rain in the main U.S. soybean producing areas, which caused market concern about U.S. soybean planted area and good-to-excellent ratings. The planted area data and weekly soybean good-to-excellent ratings data released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on June 30 both confirmed the market's concerns about U.S. soybean planting. These data will, in the short term, still support U.S. soybean futures in maintaining high-level oscillation, which will substantially raise the cost of China's imported soybeans, forcing crushing plants to passively raise the prices of soybean meal and soybean oil.</P><P> But in the short term, speculation over the impact of severe weather on planting may cool somewhat, and the loose fundamentals will bring great pressure on soybean meal prices.</P><P> From the perspective of soybean meal supply, global soybean supply is ample. After U.S. soybeans hit a record high last year, soybean output in Argentina and Brazil also hit record highs, which will suppress legume prices over the medium and long term. Domestically, China's soybean imports in June may reach 8.53 million tons and in July reach 8 million tons, so soybean sources are very abundant; at present, the operating rate of domestic crushing plants remains at an extremely high level of about 54%, and soybean meal supply has recently remained high. The volume of domestic rapeseed meal and imported DDGS remains high, suppressing plant protein prices.</P><P> On the demand side, although the hog farming industry currently shows restocking demand, truly driving soybean meal consumption may still require waiting for hog inventory data to stop falling and rebound before it can be confirmed. The meat, egg and poultry farming industry remains sluggish. Due to oversupply, prices of meat poultry and eggs fell sharply earlier, severely dampening the enthusiasm of farming enterprises to restock. In aquaculture, because oversupply last year led to sharp price declines, pond stock levels in the south are relatively high this year, constraining the release of fry. Recently, rainfall has been excessive, feed placement in ponds has decreased, which is bearish for meal consumption. Later, as large quantities of stocked fish are sold, demand for protein meal from newly released fry may decline substantially, so demand for protein meal from aquaculture later is also worrying.</P><P> Based on the information on both supply and demand, the author believes that soybean meal supply and demand will remain loose, and after the bullish U.S. heavy rain weather factor is fully priced in, soybean meal prices will return to fundamentals in the short term, with the possibility of oscillating pullbacks.</P></p>
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Specialty breeding leverages the Internet Plus to reach consumers directly
A university student used e-commerce to sell pheasants and earned 100,000 yuan in half a year; an old man in Chongqing sold pheasants online and sold 300 per month. Once traditional specialty breeding catches the Internet, it is like a kite riding the wind, unstoppable. The integration of the commercial trade sector with the Internet has a relatively long history, and e-
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