After twelve consecutive years of bumper grain harvests, new challenges still need to be faced squarely
The development of agriculture has once again reached a moment for reflection.
In the first half of the year, as the national economy faced sustained pressure from slowing growth, good news came once again from agricultural and rural development: China's summer grain production reached a total national summer grain output of 141.066 million tons (282.13 billion jin), an increase of 4.470 million tons (8.94 billion jin) over 2014, up 3.3%, achieving the outstanding result of “twelve consecutive years of bumper harvests.”
The accelerated advancement of China's modern agriculture has brought agricultural and rural economic development into its best historical period, but current agricultural and rural development still faces a series of deep-seated contradictions and challenges. We need to stand at a new historical starting point and persistently promote sustainable agricultural development. At no time can we neglect agriculture, forget farmers, or be indifferent to rural areas.
Grain output climbing at a high level
The summer grain “twelve consecutive years of bumper harvests” did not come easily.
From an industry perspective, the 2015 summer grain increase benefited from both expanded area and higher yields per unit. In 2015, the national summer grain sown area was 27.6923 million hectares (415.384 million mu), an increase of 110,700 hectares (1.661 million mu) over 2014, up 0.4%; the increase in sown area added 548,000 tons (1.10 billion jin) to output, contributing 12.3% to the increase. In 2015, the national summer grain yield per hectare reached 5094.0 kilograms (339.6 kilograms/mu), an increase of 141.6 kilograms per hectare (9.4 kilograms/mu) over the previous year, up 2.9%; the increase in yield per unit added 3.922 million tons (7.84 billion jin) to output, contributing 87.7% to the increase.
From the external conditions of the industry, first, the state continued to implement the minimum purchase price policy in major wheat-producing areas, and formulated and announced the 2015 minimum purchase price for wheat in the autumn of 2014, which played an important role in stabilizing the wheat sown area. Second, the central government continued to increase support for strengthening agriculture and benefiting farmers, and promptly allocated various subsidy funds for 2015, including direct grain subsidies and improved seed subsidies. Third, the sown area structure was adjusted considerably. The main change was that major summer grain-producing areas reduced cotton and summer-harvested rapeseed planting areas and increased wheat and other summer grain planting.
The summer grain “twelve consecutive years of bumper harvests” laid an important foundation for a bumper grain harvest for the whole year. Looking back over the past 12 years, China's grain production has broken the cyclical pattern of “two good years, one flat year, and one poor year.” The reasons for the steady increase in grain output, in plain terms, are “good policies, strong science and technology, hard work by the people, and favorable weather.”
The continuous climbing of grain output at a high level in recent years is an important sign that the level of agricultural productivity has reached a new stage. In the process of climbing at a high level, every bit of growth in grain output is extremely difficult. This shows how precious this year's 3.3% summer grain increase is.
Farmers' incomes continue to grow
Another important sign of the positive agricultural and rural situation in the first half of the year is that farmers' real incomes grew by 8.3%.
According to National Bureau of Statistics data, in the first half of the year, the per capita disposable income of rural residents was 5554 yuan, a nominal year-on-year increase of 9.5%, and a real increase of 8.3% after deducting price factors. This growth rate was 1.3 percentage points higher than GDP growth in the same period.
What is gratifying is that the real income increase of farmers was 1.6 percentage points higher than the real income growth of urban residents in the same period. Previously, the income growth rate of farmers had been higher than that of urban residents for five consecutive years. In the first half of this year, the per capita income ratio between urban and rural residents was 2.83, 0.04 lower than the same period of the previous year.
“Whether it is a moderately prosperous society or not still depends on the folks in the countryside.” In terms of policy, the state has made it clear that it is necessary to accelerate the establishment of a long-term mechanism for sustained increases in farmers' incomes, ensure that per capita rural income doubles by 2020 compared with 2010, and keep the growth rate higher than that of GDP and urban residents' income.
Increasing farmers' incomes is an extremely arduous task. First, every possible means must be used to increase income channels and continuously narrow the income gap between urban and rural residents. In addition to obtaining stable income from crop farming and livestock breeding, working in cities is a major source of income for farmers. In the first half of the year, the average monthly income of migrant workers was 3002 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%. However, there is still a huge difference in the absolute value of urban and rural residents' incomes. As of 2014, the urban-rural income ratio narrowed from 3.33:1 the previous year to 2.92:1, but the absolute gap was still 18952 yuan. Overall, China's economy shows uneven development between rural and urban areas. As far as rural areas are concerned, development is also uneven across regions. By the end of last year, China's rural areas still had 70.17 million poor people, accounting for 5.1% of the total rural population. To build a moderately prosperous society in all respects, great efforts must be made to reduce the poor population.
Poverty alleviation policies are being advanced with unprecedented intensity. The central government recently allocated 13.89 billion yuan in poverty alleviation funds to support poverty alleviation and development in poor rural areas. The Ministry of Finance stated that in 2015, the central government, in implementing the spirit of the China Rural Poverty Alleviation and Development Outline (2011—2020), budgeted 46.09 billion yuan in poverty alleviation funds for local areas, an increase of 8% over the previous year.
Fundamentally speaking, to increase farmers' incomes, it is still necessary to vigorously develop modern agriculture, vigorously develop high-yield, efficient, high-quality, ecological and safe modern agriculture, make agricultural operations profitable, make agriculture an industry with prospects, and drive farmers' income growth through industrial efficiency improvement. This is the long-term solution.
The development model urgently needs to change
In the first half of the year, the agricultural and rural development situation was encouraging. Both the added value of the primary industry and the intensity of investment made people feel the weight of the encouraging rural situation. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics show that in the first half of the year, the added value of the primary industry was 2025.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%. In terms of investment intensity, investment in the primary industry in the first half of the year was 615.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.8%.
It should also be noted that the challenges and contradictions facing China's agricultural development have accumulated and concentrated, forcing agriculture to change its development model and take the path of sustainable development. The most prominent challenge and contradiction is the intensification of resource constraints, with the ecological environment showing red warning lights. When visiting at the grassroots level, rural cadres often use a common saying when talking about this issue: “Green mountains and clear waters but the people are not refined; birds sing and flowers are fragrant but the food is not fragrant.”
From a macro perspective, China uses 10% of the world's arable land and 6% of its freshwater resources to feed 20% of the world's population. Under intensifying resource constraints, each of the 1.3 billion Chinese people has an annual per capita share of 440 kilograms of grain, 65 kilograms of meat, 550 kilograms of vegetables, 30 kilograms of milk and 20 kilograms of poultry eggs. While the achievements are enormous, they also make people feel the pressure on resources and the environment all the more.
To make national food security sustainable, to make farmers' income growth sustainable, and to make the carrying capacity of resources and the environment sustainable, agricultural development must shift mainly from relying on increased input of resource factors to relying mainly on scientific and technological progress. To advance the transformation of the agricultural development model, greater attention must be paid to innovating agricultural management methods and building a modern agricultural management system. Greater attention must be paid to optimizing and adjusting the agricultural industrial structure and building a modern agricultural industrial system. Greater attention must be paid to the quality and safety of agricultural products and building a modern agricultural safety system. Greater attention must be paid to agricultural scientific and technological innovation and enhancing comprehensive agricultural production capacity. At the same time, greater attention must be paid to coordinating the use of both domestic and international markets and both domestic and international resources, ensuring domestic supply while also protecting industrial development and farmers' interests.
If we continue along this path, the day of “green mountains and clear waters and refined people too; birds sing and flowers are fragrant and the food is fragrant too” will not be far away.