Poultry and Egg Farming Profit Analysis and Early Warning: Read This One Article to Understand It All
I. Important Monitoringand Early WarningIndicators
EachStageNational Average Price
1. Broiler breeder egg price:
As of May 26, the broiler breeder egg price was 0.60 yuan/egg, up 0.11 yuan/egg month-on-month.
2. Broiler chick price:
As of May 26, the broiler chick price was 0.84 yuan/bird, up 0.21 yuan/bird month-on-month.
3. Broiler chicken price:
As of May 26, the broiler chicken price was 3.19 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan/jin month-on-month.
1. Dressed chicken price:
As of May 26, the dressed chicken price was 12.08 yuan/kg, down 0.87 yuan/kg month-on-month.
2. Commercial layer chick price:
As of May 17, the commercial layer chick price was 2.79 yuan/bird, down 0.08 yuan/bird month-on-month.
3. Egg price:
As of May 26, the egg price was 2.06 yuan/jin, unchanged from the end of last week month-on-month.
4. Culled hen price:
As of May 26, the culled hen price was 2.08 yuan, up 0.06 yuan/jin month-on-month.
Henan Prices
1. Broiler breeder egg price:
As of May 26, the broiler breeder egg price was 0.55 yuan/egg, up 0.10 yuan/egg month-on-month.
2. Broiler chick price:
As of May 26, the broiler chick price was 0.85 yuan/bird, up 0.20 yuan/bird month-on-month.
3. Broiler chicken price:
As of May 26, the broiler chicken price was 3.12 yuan/jin, up 0.15 yuan/jin month-on-month.
4. Egg price:
As of May 26, the egg price was 1.92 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan/jin month-on-month.
5. Culled hen price:
As of May 26, the culled hen price was 2.05 yuan, up 0.07 yuan/jin month-on-month.
Inventory
1. Monthly layer inventory:
Data from relevant institutions show that in April 2017, the national total layer inventory was 1.341 billion birds, up 1.41% from March and down 11.29% year-on-year; the inventory of layers in production was 1.135 billion birds, up 1.07% from March and down 9.83% from the same period last year; the inventory of replacement pullets was 206 million birds, up 3.30% from March and down sharply by 18.52% year-on-year; the number of pullets added to flocks was up 9.67% from March and down sharply by 29.24% year-on-year; the inventory of young chickens was down 7.73% from March. Data on flock age structure released over the same period show that in April 2017, the proportion of pullets rebounded sharply from 5.23% the previous month to 7.46%, the proportion of young chickens fell sharply from 12.68% the previous month to 10.51%, the proportion of main laying hens fell from 74.28% the previous month to 73.4%, and the proportion of hens about to be culled rebounded from 7.83% the previous month to 8.65%.
FarmingProfits, Profits at Each Stage
1. Broiler breeding and hatching profit
As of May 26, the theoretical broiler breeding and hatching profit was -0.04 yuan/bird, up 0.21 yuan/bird month-on-month.
2. Poultry farming profit:
As of May 26, the theoretical broiler farming profit was -0.67 yuan/bird, up 0.37 yuan/bird month-on-month.
3. Layer farming profit:
As of May 26, the theoretical layer farming profit was -14.84 yuan/100 birds, up 0.03 yuan/100 birds month-on-month.
II. Important Event Monitoring and Early Warning
1. Domestic developments:
On May 19, the Shaanxi Province Animal Husbandry Association submitted a document to the Shaanxi Provincial Department of Agriculture, calling on the government to help rebuild public confidence in poultry product consumption and to provide financial support to poultry enterprises, rescuing the poultry industry that is in dire straits.
On May 13, the veterinary department of Wuqing District, Tianjin, discovered during monitoring that layers raised at a farm showed suspected avian influenza symptoms, with 10,000 birds affected and 6,000 dead. On May 24, the National Avian Influenza Reference Laboratory confirmed that the outbreak was an H7N9 influenza outbreak. At present, the outbreak has been effectively controlled.
2. Weather:
Affected by a low-vortex shear system, from May 31 to June 2, the eastern part of the Southwest region, Jiangnan, South China and other areas will experience a relatively strong rainfall process from west to east. Among them, parts of southeastern Chongqing, northeastern Guizhou, central and northern Hunan, most of Jiangxi, southern Zhejiang, most of Fujian, and northern and eastern Guangdong will have torrential rain (50-80 mm); southeastern Chongqing, central and northern Hunan, central Jiangxi, and northeastern Fujian and Guangdong will have local heavy torrential rain (100-180 mm); some of the above areas will also be accompanied by short-duration intense precipitation, with hourly rainfall intensity reaching 30-50 mm and a maximum of 60-80 mm, and parts of southern Jiangnan and northern South China will be accompanied by thunderstorms, strong winds or hail. For this reason, the National Meteorological Center issued a blue rainstorm warning at 06:00 on May 31.
3. International poultry and eggs:
According to South Korean media reports, in order to stabilize egg prices, the South Korean government will supply 4 million to 5 million eggs through the National Agricultural Cooperative Federation early next month at prices lower than market retail prices. In addition, to stabilize chicken prices, the South Korean government began releasing 2,100 tons of government reserve supplies on May 24.
III. MarketOutlook andStrategic Recommendations
Broiler
At the end of this week, the broiler chicken price rose 0.09 yuan/jin compared with last week. Because there were many broiler diseases in the earlier period, farmers sold birds early, and recent broiler marketings have decreased, supporting broiler prices. However, terminal demand has not shown obvious improvement, and at the same time egg prices have continued to remain low and culled hens have increased, so the price increase for broiler chickens is expected to be limited.
Eggs
This week, spot egg prices stabilized after a slight decline. Recently, as temperatures rose, the laying rate decreased while the shelf life of eggs shortened, and the oversupply situation improved. At the same time, the industry is currently in an overall loss, so there is limited room for spot egg prices to fall, and in the short term prices may be boosted by the Dragon Boat Festival. Looking ahead to July-September, egg prices are expected to run above 3.0 yuan/jin, and farmers can cull some older hens with severe losses according to actual conditions.
Author: Agricultural Investment Small-Time Player