Fertilizer, Seed and Pesticide Market Analysis and Price Trends
Summary of Fertilizer Industry Chain Product Prices
Urea Market Analysis:Today, the domestic urea market continued to be mainly stable, but the overall market atmosphere was weak, so in terms of actual transactions, covert price reductions continued. There is now a little more than a month until the Spring Festival. Based on the trend of previous years, industrial demand will gradually decline later on, and the mentality is to buy on rising prices rather than falling prices, so purchasing enthusiasm has recently been low. On the agricultural side, there is also an expected gap, and there is also demand before the Spring Festival, but sentiment is poor, and at present it is only fertilizer stocking, not yet the fertilizer application season, so purchasing is also relatively cautious. In this way, the overall insufficiency of domestic demand, the lack of confidence, and the behavior of some traders cashing out have put the current market clearly in a weak downward trend. However, at this time news of India's tender has emerged again. Although exports are hopeless, it may affect everyone's expectations and judgment for the later period in terms of sentiment.
Phosphate Fertilizer Market Analysis:As the weekend approaches, the phosphate fertilizer market has shown no obvious changes, with the overall trend mainly stable. New orders for monoammonium phosphate continued to be relatively weak. It is reported that the finished product inventory of some downstream compound fertilizer producers is gradually rising, and raw material monoammonium phosphate stocking is relatively ample, enough to last until February, so enthusiasm for replenishing orders is not high, and market transaction volume is limited. The intention of monoammonium phosphate enterprises to take orders has become evident. Supported by part of the undelivered volume, prices are temporarily holding firm. At present, the mainstream acceptance-bill ex-works price of 55% powder from Hubei enterprises is 2,350-2,400 yuan/tonne, on a one-order-one-price basis; in terms of exports, this week Yuntianhua reached an order with Australia for 60% granular monoammonium phosphate at a FOB price of 400 USD/tonne, which converts to a domestic port arrival price of around 2,520 yuan/tonne. For diammonium phosphate, domestic enterprise operating rates are low, supply is tightening, and prices remain firm. The mainstream ex-works quotation of 64% from Hubei enterprises is 2,700-2,750 yuan/tonne, the mainstream arrival quotation when shipped to Northeast China is 2,850-3,050 yuan/tonne, and the mainstream arrival quotation of Yunnan-Guizhou brands is 2,900-3,100 yuan/tonne, with actual transactions mainly negotiated.
Ammonium Sulphate Market Analysis:Today, domestic ammonium sulphate market prices were stable. Downstream enthusiasm for seeking goods is not high and they are pressuring high prices. During the week, some manufacturers' tender prices were released, mostly declines, which was bearish for market participants' sentiment, leading to a weakening of the overall market negotiation atmosphere. After prices in some areas fell and adjusted, with the weekend arriving they temporarily stabilized as the market waited and watched, executing weekly contract orders. From the current fundamentals, domestic and external demand in the market is weak and it is difficult to find substantial bullish support, and the sulphuric acid price is expected to continue its weak downward trend.
Potash Fertilizer Market Analysis:Today, the domestic potassium chloride market did not continue to rise further. After dealers slightly pushed up quotations earlier, the market gradually moved into a stable digestion phase. At present, the quotation to the market by large distributors for imported 60% red powder potassium at ports is 2,060 yuan/tonne, and the quotation for 62% Russian white powder is 2,250 yuan/tonne, but it is reported that this price has not yet been supported by actual concluded transactions. Domestic potassium remains temporarily stable, with insufficient operating rates, tight supply, and prices holding firm.
The domestic potassium sulphate market remains weak and temporarily stable. Downstream compound fertilizer plants have limited procurement of potassium sulphate as a raw material, and sulphur-based fertilizer prices are relatively high, so plant production is not active. At present, sales pressure on potassium sulphate manufacturers has increased somewhat. Recently, market transactions have been relatively few, and prices have temporarily maintained previous quotations without major adjustments. At present, the ex-works quotation of Mannheim 50% powder is mostly 2,900-2,950 yuan/tonne, and the price of granular and 52% powder is mostly 100-150 yuan/tonne higher.
Compound Fertilizer Market Analysis:As the weekend approaches, the compound fertilizer market is mainly stable, with trading becoming quiet. Raw material urea, due to poor demand, has a weak and soft market, and some enterprises' prices have shown stable quotations with covert declines; phosphate fertilizer, under the influence of costs and low operating rates, is mainly running firm and stable; potassium chloride, due to tight supply, tended toward stability after a slight price increase; potassium sulphate, due to poor downstream demand, is mainly weakly stable. Although some raw materials have weakened somewhat, the impact on the compound fertilizer market is not great. In addition, due to environmental protection and other reasons, compound fertilizer operating rates are not good, and compound fertilizer prices are mainly stable at high levels. However, downstream dealers are mostly clearly taking a wait-and-see attitude toward current prices, and market transactions have not improved much compared with earlier, mainly remaining light. In the short term, the compound fertilizer market will mainly consolidate and wait and see, with more attention paid to upstream product dynamics. At present, the mainstream manufacturer quotations for 45% S (3*15) in East China are mostly referenced at 2,350-2,500 yuan/tonne.