2014 autumn grain season off to a good start, with a heavy disaster-prevention task ahead
As the farming proverb says, “the 15th day of the seventh lunar month decides drought or flood, and the 15th day of the eighth lunar month decides the harvest”. Right now, there is less than a month to go before drought or flood is decided, and two months before the autumn grain matures. At present, the foundation for autumn grain production is sound, but compared with previous years, an El Nino event of at least moderate intensity is very likely this year, and major migratory and epidemic pests and diseases are showing a trend of severe recurrence, both posing severe challenges to agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation.
A good start for autumn grain
This year, the national autumn grain area has increased steadily, with an expected increase of more than 6 million mu, and the growth of autumn grain in most regions is better than last year, especially dryland crops such as corn, potatoes and soybeans, which are generally growing well.
On the vast black soil, corn is jointing. Chen Mingwen, a villager of Zhongxin Village, Huayuan Town, Lindian County, Heilongjiang Province, planted 50 mu of corn this year using the drip irrigation under film technique, and he checks the corn's growth in the field every day. Now the corn has thick stalks and strong roots, already more than a person's height, and is growing beautifully.
Lindian County has 1.9 million mu of corn, mostly sown by direct seeding in the field or by film-mulched cultivation. Wang Shenghua, deputy director of the county agricultural technology extension center, said the corn is growing well mainly because farmers planted varieties with a relatively long growth period together with film-mulched cultivation technology, which can recover 150 to 200 degrees Celsius of accumulated temperature and extend the growth period by 7 to 10 days; at the same time, topdressing was relatively timely.
Heilongjiang is China's largest grain-producing province, and this year the planted area of high-yield crops rice and corn has increased somewhat across the province. Right now, some of the province's film-mulched corn has already headed and formed ears; thanks to high temperatures, ample rain and scientific field management, it is growing better than in previous years.
Zeng Yande, director of the Planting Industry Department of the Ministry of Agriculture, said this year's national autumn grain production situation is good. Two points support this judgment: first, the area has increased steadily. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's agricultural situation monitoring, the national autumn grain area is expected to increase by more than 6 million mu this year. This is the most important foundation for securing a bumper autumn grain harvest. Second, growth is generally good. During this year's spring sowing, meteorological conditions were good, soil moisture was good, and with key technologies implemented in place this year, sowing quality was high and seedlings emerged evenly. After spring sowing, light, temperature and water matched well in most parts of the country, and autumn grain growth in most regions is better than last year, especially dryland crops such as corn, potatoes and soybeans, which are generally growing well.
Data from Henan Province, China's second-largest grain-producing province, show that this year's autumn grain sown area has increased steadily. The autumn grain sown area this year is expected to be 71.2 million mu, an increase of nearly 900,000 mu over last year. Widespread rainfall occurred in the province in early June, and all localities seized the favorable moment of good soil moisture during summer sowing to sow in good time; in most areas, corn sowing was 2 to 3 days earlier than last year, and all was sown at the proper time. At present, Henan's summer corn is growing well. Summer corn in the southeast has about 10 leaves and is close to the large trumpet stage, with the growth period 2 to 3 days earlier than usual. Interplanted corn in the north has 10 to 11 leaves and is at the large trumpet stage; directly sown corn has 8 to 9 leaves, with the growth period 4 to 5 days earlier than usual.
Wei Mengguan, deputy director of the Henan Provincial Department of Agriculture, introduced that this year the area under good varieties and good methods is large. Leading corn varieties such as Zhengdan 958, Xianyu 335 and Yuhe 988 account for about half of the province's corn area. Key technologies such as simultaneous sowing of corn seed and fertilizer in separate positions, stubble-clearing and stubble-free sowing, and comprehensive mechanization have been promoted more vigorously. Corn planting density is mostly above 4,000 plants per mu, and the mechanical sowing rate of corn has reached 89%, 3% higher than last year.
A heavy disaster-prevention task
In the next two months, close attention must be paid to meteorological disasters: low-temperature rain may occur in the south, autumn drought may occur in the north, and the first frost in the northeast may come earlier. At the same time, close attention must be paid to major migratory and epidemic pests and diseases such as the rice “two migrations” pests, rice blast, corn borer and armyworm.
“There are still 2 months to go before the large-scale autumn grain harvest, and we still have to pass many hurdles such as floods, summer-autumn drought, high-temperature heat damage, early frost in the northeast and cold dew wind in the south. Even more, we must see the adverse effects brought by this year's El Nino event.” Mei Xurong, head of the Ministry of Agriculture's disaster prevention and mitigation expert group, said two points require close attention. First, meteorological disasters. The El Nino event will induce extreme and abnormal climate. This autumn, low-temperature rain may occur in the south, autumn drought may occur in the north, and the first frost in the northeast may come earlier. This increases the probability of summer-autumn drought, high-temperature heat damage, early frost in the northeast and cold dew wind in the south occurring together, seriously threatening autumn grain production. Second, pests and diseases. High temperature and high humidity in summer and autumn are inherently a peak period for pests and diseases. The El Nino event will induce frequent fluctuations of the western Pacific subtropical high, making typhoons likely, which will cause major migratory and epidemic pests and diseases such as the rice “two migrations” pests, rice blast, corn borer and armyworm.
In fact, since the start of summer, precipitation has been above normal in most parts of the country, making pest and disease damage likely. According to monitoring by the national crop pest and disease forecasting network, the number of immigration peaks and the immigration volume of rice planthopper and rice leaf roller in southern rice areas have recently been significantly greater than in the same period last year; rice blast is showing an epidemic trend in the northeast, southwest and Jiangnan areas; the proportion of female armyworm moths is significantly higher than usual; and the epidemic risk of potato late blight is high. At the same time, affected by the El Nino phenomenon, drought has already emerged in southern North China; although not yet serious, drought is very likely in midsummer and autumn.
Luo Lizhi, a researcher at the Migratory Pest Laboratory of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, said China's prevention and control technology for the vast majority of pests and diseases is already very mature, and pest and disease control technology, agricultural machinery and specialized control organizations have developed well in all localities, providing a guarantee for prevention and control; the key lies in monitoring and forecasting, with the emphasis on timely spraying. The national regional monitoring and forecasting system for major crop pests and diseases is increasingly complete, and all localities have ample experience in promoting specialized unified prevention and control, inter-regional joint prevention and control, and emergency prevention and control. This year's goal is to achieve a 100% prevention and control handling rate in severely affected areas, and the overall loss from pest and disease damage is expected to be kept within 5%.
Technology is the key
Autumn grain production must, on the basis of securing the area, emphasize technology being in place, with the focus on doing a good job in high-yield creation and yield-increasing model research, promoting balanced yield increases over large areas, and striving to turn the good momentum of autumn grain production into the reality of another bumper harvest to the greatest extent possible.
Autumn grain accounts for more than 70% of the year's grain output. How should autumn grain production be handled? Zeng Yande believes that, on the basis of securing the area, technology being in place must be emphasized. First, the word “seize” must be emphasized to ensure the area is secured. The bulk of the autumn grain area has been settled, and less than 10% remains as double-season late rice. All localities must be guided to speed up the early rice harvest, free up the fields and transplant in good time, so that late rice is transplanted at the proper time and time is won for safe full heading; at the same time, the word “manage” must be emphasized to strive to raise per-unit yield. In addition to routinely organizing experts to formulate technical plans by region, crop and season and providing guidance services, the focus is on doing a good job in high-yield creation and yield-increasing model research to promote balanced yield increases over large areas.
In addition, the word “resist” must be emphasized to promote safe maturation. The focus is on two regions: one is the northeast, where preventing autumn drought and early frost must be emphasized, with the focus on “seizing accumulated temperature and promoting early maturation”, promoting early emergence and rapid growth, speeding up the growth process and ensuring safe maturation. The other is the southern rice region, where preventing high-temperature heat damage, low-temperature rain and cold dew wind must be emphasized, scientifically regulating fertilizer and water, promoting normal growth and development and ensuring safe full heading; the word “prevent” must be emphasized to achieve “snatching grain from the mouths of insects”. The key is to grasp two links: one is pest and disease monitoring and early warning, intensifying monitoring of pests and diseases and releasing early warning information in a timely manner. The other is carrying out unified prevention and control, while for key areas carrying out joint prevention and control and mass prevention and mass control, to curb outbreaks and epidemics of pests and diseases.
Experts say China has a typical monsoon climate, and such features as high climate variability, frequent and severe disasters, and alternating dry and wet conditions between winter and summer and between north and south are normal monsoon climate patterns; grain production often faces disasters such as drought, floods and freezing. China has worked out a series of technical routes for disaster prevention and mitigation: to prevent early frost in the northeast, “more hoeing and more harrowing + timely topdressing + comprehensive prevention and control”; to prevent cold dew wind in the south, “reasonably selecting varieties + promoting early growth with fertilizer + regulating temperature with water”; to prevent pests and diseases, “pest and disease monitoring + unified prevention and control + green prevention and control”, and so on. Whether these key technologies can play a role, and how great a role they can play, depends on whether they can reach the villages and whether they can get into the fields.
To this end, the Ministry of Agriculture has organized and launched the “Campaign to Win a Bumper Autumn Grain Harvest”, striving to turn the good momentum of autumn grain production into the reality of another bumper harvest to the greatest extent possible. The “Autumn Grain Harvest Campaign” will aim to strive to reduce disaster losses and preserve production, and to minimize disaster losses to the greatest extent possible; its technical path will be the “two promotions and four preventions” of promoting growth, promoting early maturation, preventing drought and floods, preventing high-temperature heat damage, preventing low-temperature cold damage and preventing pests and diseases; it will highlight key areas, major crops and key links, do a good job in implementing disaster prevention and mitigation measures, and win the initiative for a bumper autumn grain harvest.