El Niño May Adversely Affect Autumn Grain Production, Ministry of Agriculture Issues Warning

    Xinhua News Agency, Chengdu, July 27 (Reporter Wang Yu) Vice Minister of Agriculture Yu Xinrong, speaking at the national on-site meeting on combating disasters and striving for a bumper autumn grain harvest held here, said that the current period is the critical time for “flood control and drought relief during late July and early August,” and also a critical period for the growth and development of autumn grain and for disaster prevention and reduction, and that close attention must be paid to and scientific assessment made of the adverse effects brought by El Niño events to autumn grain production.

    According to monitoring by the China Meteorological Administration, a moderate or stronger El Niño event may occur this year. The occurrence of an El Niño event will cause changes in atmospheric circulation and bring extreme and abnormal climate conditions; in autumn, low temperatures and continuous rain may occur in the south, autumn drought may occur in the north, and the timing of the first frost in the northeast may come earlier.

    “If a moderate-intensity or stronger El Niño event occurs, then as far as agricultural production is concerned, it will increase the probability of the combined occurrence of autumn-to-late-summer drought, high-temperature heat damage, early frost in the northeast, and cold dew wind in the south, seriously threatening autumn grain production.” said Mao Liuxi, a researcher at the National Meteorological Center.

    Yu Xinrong said that the northeast region should focus on guarding against autumn drought and early frost, with emphasis on “capturing accumulated temperature and promoting early maturity” to ensure safe maturity; the southern region should focus on guarding against low temperatures and continuous rain and the “cold dew wind” to ensure safe full heading; the Huang-Huai-Hai summer corn production area should focus on guarding against summer and autumn drought to ensure safe maturity; and the northwest and southwest regions should focus on guarding against drought and low temperatures with continuous rain, preserving soil moisture and protecting seedlings, and raising temperatures to promote strong growth.

    The reporter learned from the Ministry of Agriculture that, as of now, the foundation for China's autumn grain production is relatively good; the autumn grain area is expected to increase by more than 6 million mu, and together with the increase in the area of high-yield crops, a rough estimate is that this alone can increase production by about 5 billion jin.