The big harvest test is here. Can we withstand the test?
The joy of the summer grain harvest has not yet faded, and farmers are once again busy with the autumn grain in the fields. Whether the whole year's grain harvest can be a success still depends mainly on the autumn grain. And whether the autumn grain can be secured depends on many things: whether the planted area can remain stable with some increase, whether the various support policies can be implemented in place, whether it can withstand the test of erratic climate and frequent outbreaks of pests and diseases, and so on. Among these, whether it can withstand the test of a good harvest is an even more severe test for us.
Signs of complacency and numbness brought on by the “11 consecutive increases” in summer grain have already appeared in some places. Can China's food security really be free from all worry? Why, against the backdrop of consecutive years of grain harvests in our country, does the central government still repeatedly stress the need to ensure the national food security strategy and stress that the rice bowl of the Chinese people must be firmly held in our own hands at all times?
Such repeated emphasis is by no means excessive, because historical lessons have repeatedly proven that after a good harvest it is easy for people to relax their thinking, and once thinking relaxes, grain output is certain to slide.
Not to mention the distant past; just take the more than 30 years of reform and opening up. Grain output has slid more than once, and even after entering the new century there have been slides. The reason the central government issued the No. 1 document in 2004 with the theme locked on “agriculture, rural areas and farmers” was that before that China's grain output had been declining for consecutive years, farmers' income growth had been hovering at a low speed, and stabilizing agriculture and stabilizing grain production were major issues affecting the overall situation. That year's No. 1 document locked onto increasing farmers' income and introduced 3 unprecedented policies benefiting farmers: direct subsidies to grain-growing farmers, reduction of the burden of agricultural taxes and fees, and a minimum purchase price system for key agricultural products. This greatly mobilized farmers' enthusiasm for growing grain, and that year grain output increased by more than 70 billion jin.
Since 2004, the central government has issued 11 consecutive No. 1 documents with “agriculture, rural areas and farmers” as the theme, playing an extremely important role in ensuring agricultural and rural development and ensuring food security. The No. 1 document issued this year is the 11th consecutive No. 1 document since the beginning of the new century. The 11 central No. 1 documents have brought 10 consecutive years of bumper harvests and this year's “11 consecutive increases” in summer grain.
Our consecutive bumper harvests have forcefully rebutted the pessimistic argument that once appeared internationally: “Who will feed China?” But we must see that the internal and external environment and conditions for agricultural and rural development are undergoing profound changes, various contradictions and deep-seated constraints are more prominent, and we have reached a stage where sustained development is difficult without deepening reform.
In the past two years, under complex domestic and international circumstances, we have innovated the methods of macroeconomic regulation and achieved steady improvement in economic operation, and the grain harvest has played an indispensable role. This is because food accounts for more than 1/3 of the statistical composition of China's consumer price index, and among the factors driving the rise in consumer prices in recent years, food price increases have accounted for 60% to 70%. This year, the pressure of price increases may be somewhat greater than last year. To achieve the expected goals of economic development, especially to keep the increase in consumer prices at around 3.5%, the key lies in ensuring the supply of grain and other major agricultural products. And after the “11 consecutive increases” in summer grain, the supporting factors for agricultural production are already stretched very tight: constraints on freshwater resources are increasing, production costs are rising, ecological and environmental constraints are tightening, the difficulty of increasing output is growing, and with the slightest relaxation there is a risk of a slide.
Moreover, at present China's grain supply and demand are in a state of tight balance. In the future, as the total population increases, the proportion of urban population rises, and residents' income levels improve, total grain demand will continue to grow, and the demand structure will undergo even more profound changes. This tight balance will intensify further. If grain output falls by a relatively large amount, supply and demand will become unbalanced, bringing serious effects on economic and social development.
Some people will say, we can simply rely on imports. Importing some grain appropriately is beneficial for adjusting and supplementing domestic supply and easing pressure on resources and the environment, and it is also economically worthwhile. But the capacity of the international grain market is, after all, limited. Importing too much also carries great risks and costs. For a country with a large population like ours, once a major problem arises with grain, no one can save us. Even if we have more money and offer high prices, we may not necessarily be able to buy from the international market, or buy enough grain to meet our needs. The 1.3 billion Chinese people cannot count on buying grain to feed themselves. Holding our own rice bowl firmly is a reality the Chinese people must face.
The grain issue cannot be viewed only from an economic perspective; it must be viewed from a political and strategic perspective. This is precisely why the new Party Central Committee places ensuring national food security in a more prominent position and stresses the important significance of adhering to solving the problem of feeding ourselves mainly by relying on our own strength.
When we stress ensuring food security, we do not mean returning to the old path of “taking grain as the key link and cutting everything else down.” Ensuring food security fundamentally still requires advancing agricultural modernization, basing ourselves on China's national conditions and agricultural conditions, following the laws of modernization, relying on scientific and technological support and innovation-driven development, raising land output, resource utilization rates, and labor productivity, and striving to blaze a path of new-type agricultural modernization with Chinese characteristics featuring advanced production technology, moderately scaled operations, strong market competitiveness, and sustainable ecological environment.
China has more than 1.3 billion mouths to feed. Of all matters, this is the greatest. Remember: grain security means security for all under heaven!