Four major favorable factors exist in the autumn compound fertilizer market
Along with the start of wheat fertilizer preparation, the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises has risen somewhat, especially in wheat-growing regions such as Shandong, Henan, Hebei and Anhui, where the overall operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises has risen to around 50%. At present, the autumn fertilizer prices of most enterprises have still not been announced, and basically maintain the previous ex-factory quotes. The national ex-factory quotes for 45% (15:15:15) chlorine-based compound fertilizer are mostly 1750-1900 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory quotes for 45% (15:15:15) sulfur-based compound fertilizer are mostly 2150-2350 yuan/ton.
Overall, there are four favorable factors in this year's autumn compound fertilizer market, so one can be cautiously optimistic.
⟦NL> First, fertilizer prices are low this year. Compared with last year, prices have generally fallen by more than 300 yuan/ton, making this the lowest year in recent years. This lowers farmers' planting costs and helps stimulate farmers' enthusiasm for using fertilizer.
Second, winter wheat accounts for the bulk of autumn fertilizer, and wheat prices have risen this year, which is good news for autumn fertilizer. According to the Hebei Provincial Grain Bureau, since the summer grain purchase opened in late June, both purchase volume and prices in the wheat market have opened high and moved higher. According to monitoring, at the end of June the average purchase price of wheat across the province was 1.23 yuan/jin. At present, the highest purchase price in Langfang and Tangshan is 1.25 yuan/jin, the purchase price in Shijiazhuang and Baoding is 1.24 yuan/jin, the price in Xingtai is 1.23 yuan/jin, and the lowest price in Cangzhou, Hengshui and Handan is 1.22 yuan/jin. Wheat market purchase prices across Hebei Province are all higher than the state minimum purchase price (1.18 yuan/jin), so that the state market-support purchase policy does not need to be activated.
Third, inventory is not large. Because fertilizer prices have continued to fall since last year, dealers generally have not dared to stock fertilizer, resulting in empty social inventories, which lays the foundation for the future launch of the market.
Fourth, raw material prices provide support. Recently, international sulfur prices have been stable with some increase, and phosphate ammonium exports have been relatively good, driving a slight rise in monoammonium phosphate. At present, the domestic ex-factory quote for 55% powdered monoammonium phosphate is 1800-1950 yuan/ton, the ex-factory quote for 55% granular is 1900-2050 yuan/ton, and 58% powdered monoammonium phosphate is around 1950-2050 yuan/ton; this is an increase of about 50-100 yuan/ton from the earlier low point. The rise in monoammonium phosphate prices provides support for the prices of high-phosphorus compound fertilizer for wheat.
At present, some enterprises have already begun to deploy for the autumn fertilizer market. For example, Jiangxi Liuguo Chemical has arranged fertilizer preparation for the North China autumn market one week earlier than in previous years. In early July, Jiangxi Liuguo Chemical Co., Ltd. issued its North China autumn marketing strategy, and dealers' enthusiasm for taking goods increased significantly.