Why China cannot massively import meat in the future

Recently, some media published an article claiming that China's surging meat demand will change the global feed grain trade pattern and set off a “global tsunami”. The report pointed out that due to the rapid increase in China's meat consumption, by 2050 China's meat imports will soar 35-fold, which will trigger many problems such as resource depletion and environmental pollution, bring serious impacts on the international grain market, and even have a major impact on farmers, public health and the environment worldwide. Market early-warning experts from the Ministry of Agriculture, taking into comprehensive account multiple factors such as domestic production, consumption, policy, science and technology, pointed out that this view is unscientific, and that China cannot massively import meat in the future.

Does China need to massively import meat? —— With the improvement of meat production capacity and the slowing of consumption growth, China's meat imports cannot increase substantially in the future

Market early-warning experts from the Ministry of Agriculture said that over the past 10 years China's meat production has grown rapidly, and in the future China's meat production will continue to grow rapidly. Meat consumption will continue to increase, but the growth rate of consumption will gradually slow. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2013 China's total meat output was 83.73 million tons. Looking at the average annual growth rate of meat, over the past 10 years pork was 2.7%, poultry was 3.8%, beef was 2.2%, and mutton was 2.7%. In the future, although it will be constrained by ecological resource conditions and the level of industrial development, maintaining the same rate of increase will not be difficult. With the gradual advancement of urbanization and the steady increase in residents' incomes, the meat demand of Chinese residents will continue to increase. However, because the meat consumption of Chinese residents has already reached a relatively high level, the sensitivity of meat consumption to income increases is gradually declining. As the concepts of a balanced diet and healthy consumption take root in people's hearts, meat consumption cannot continue to grow as rapidly as in the past, and meat demand may shift toward eggs, milk, aquatic products and so on.

At present, China's meat imports are mainly for variety and structural adjustment. For example, the vast majority of China's pork product imports are pork offal, and poultry product imports are also mainly by-products such as chicken feet and chicken offal. The increase in China's meat imports is mainly in beef and mutton imports.

According to comprehensive analysis by experts, China's meat production is growing faster than consumption, and imports are generally controllable. Taking pork as an example, pork has always been the largest meat consumed in China. Experts predict that by 2050 China's per capita pork consumption will remain at around 53 kg, and total pork consumption will be 79 million tons. With the improvement of China's hog breeding efficiency, by 2050 the number of breeding sows on hand will be 48 million head, which is fully capable of meeting future pork consumption demand, and the proportion of pork imports will be around 1%. In short, with the improvement of meat production capacity and the slowing of consumption growth, China's meat imports cannot increase substantially in the future. In particular, pork and poultry consumption will mainly be supplied domestically, while beef and mutton will require a small amount of imports to fill domestic demand.

Is China's meat production not environmentally friendly?

—— Actively promote cleaner production, reduce the consumption of land and water resources by large-scale farming, and prevent pollution of the environment caused by livestock and poultry breeding waste

At present, China's livestock and poultry breeding industry faces pressures such as rising costs, disease, and environmental protection. The Chinese government attaches great importance to the development of ecologically and environmentally friendly animal husbandry, and has successively issued the “Twelfth Five-Year” Development Plan for National Animal Husbandry, the National Beef and Mutton Production Development Plan (2013-2020), the National Grain-Saving Animal Husbandry Development Plan (2011-2020), the Regulations on the Prevention and Control of Pollution from Large-Scale Livestock and Poultry Breeding, as well as genetic improvement plans for livestock and poultry breeds such as dairy cattle, hogs, beef cattle and broilers. The purpose is to enhance meat self-sufficiency through multiple channels such as breed breeding, feeding technology and scientific management, ease the contradiction between grain supply and demand, ensure the effective supply of livestock products, and further promote the sustained and healthy development of grain-saving animal husbandry.

At the same time, the government has intensified efforts to develop and utilize forage resources such as pasture grass and straw, vigorously developed grain-saving animal husbandry, and achieved the goal that “the development of grain-saving animal husbandry does not compete with people for grain or with grain for land”; it pays attention to ecological and environmental protection, vigorously promotes ecological breeding methods combining farming and animal husbandry, actively promotes cleaner production, and promotes the sustained and healthy development of ecological animal husbandry; it reduces the consumption of land and water resources by large-scale farming, strengthens supervision and guidance on environmental protection in the process of developing large-scale farming, and prevents pollution of the environment caused by livestock and poultry breeding waste.

Do Chinese enterprises acquire foreign companies merely to satisfy domestic demand?

—— Rationally allocate resources in a market economy, improve resource use efficiency, and better open up the international market

In recent years, with the rapid development of China's economy, the overall strength of Chinese enterprises has risen rapidly. Overseas mergers and acquisitions by Chinese-funded enterprises are the result of rationally allocating resources in a market economy, giving play to China's advantages in capital, technology and management, driving the development of related enterprises in other countries, and playing a role in improving resource use efficiency, as well as better opening up the international market.

The foreign-funded Yum! Brands restaurant group acquired Chinese catering enterprises such as Little Sheep, and no one said that the foreign party made the acquisition because it could not satisfy its own country's demand. Shuanghui International's acquisition of Smithfield Foods is an inevitable act of an enterprise, after developing to a certain stage, participating in global competition and expanding the global market. This is a realistic choice that conforms to the internationalization trend of China's agricultural development. In the future, as the strength of Chinese enterprises improves, such mergers and acquisitions will show a growth trend.

Will the growth of China's meat demand set off a “global tsunami”?

—— In the future China's grain output is expected to continue growing, and with the transformation and development of animal husbandry, the growth rate of feed grain demand will slow markedly

China's food security strategy is to ensure absolute security of staple food and allow some imports of feed grain. The vast majority of imported feed grain is soybeans, and soybeans are not included in the internationally accepted scope of grain. At present, China still implements quota management for corn imports, with high tariffs levied outside the quota, and it is impossible to import corn in large quantities.

With the support of national policy and science and technology, China's grain output is expected to continue growing, and the grain gap requiring imports is not large. Moreover, with the continuous advancement of science and technology, the feed conversion rate of livestock and poultry has been further improved, and the growth rate of feed grain demand will slow markedly. From the current situation, China's animal husbandry development has entered a period of transformation, with the slowdown of production expansion and the slowing growth of residents' consumption of livestock and poultry products. Therefore, the consumer demand for feed grain cannot grow too rapidly in the future. China's population accounts for 20% of the world's total. Judging from the current global grain (cereal) trade volume, China's grain imports account for only a 4% share of the world. The impact of China's imports on the world has been inappropriately magnified by a small number of people. It should be said that China's huge consumer market has contributed to stimulating foreign agricultural production and exports and increasing farmers' incomes, rather than competing with the world for grain and land.