Food prices may fall slightly month-on-month; institutions forecast July CPI at 2.3%

According to the arrangements of the National Bureau of Statistics, important macroeconomic data including the July CPI (Consumer Price Index) will be released on August 9. As of August 6, multiple institutions had already published forecast reports for the July CPI, with institutions forecasting July CPI at 2.3%.

The Bank of Communications Financial Research Center stated that, on a comprehensive assessment, July food prices will fall slightly month-on-month compared with June; the year-on-year increase in July non-food prices will be basically flat with June.

Taking into account the carryover effect, the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center believes that the year-on-year increase in July CPI may be around 2.1%-2.4%, with a median value of 2.3%. It is expected that starting from August, as the carryover effect declines, the year-on-year CPI will also show a trend change.

⟦NL> First Capital Securities stated that since 2013 the year-on-year CPI has fluctuated between 1.8%-3.0%, but there is no inflationary pressure. First Capital forecasts that the full-year 2014 year-on-year CPI level will be 2.2%-2.3%, far below the 2.6%-2.7% level of the previous two years.