Severe Drought Hits Many Parts of China, Grain Production Faces Challenges

According to Xinhua News Agency, as an important national commercial grain base, several major grain-producing counties in Jilin Province are currently suffering severe drought, among which 10 major grain-producing counties including Changling, Nong'an and Gongzhuling have seen the least precipitation since 1951, with some plots even yielding no harvest at all.

Yang Xueyan, chief of the Jilin Provincial Meteorological Observatory, said that from July 1 to now, the province's average precipitation has been 113.1 mm, 48% less than the same period in a normal year, ranking second lowest in history for the same period. Data from the Jilin Provincial Government show that the province's current drought-affected dry farmland area has reached 6.29 million mu, among which the main grain-producing areas of Baicheng, Songyuan and Siping are suffering moderate to severe drought. It is expected that in the next 10 days, the province's average precipitation will be around 10 mm, significantly less than the 42.4 mm of the same period in a normal year, and the drought-affected area will further expand while the severity of the drought continues to worsen.

Liu Zhenjun, a large-scale grain grower in Nong'an County, said with great anxiety:

The corn fields, which are at the grain-filling stage, should be all green, but due to drought and little rain, as far as the eye can see they look more like golden October, with the corn leaves across the entire field all withered and yellow.

Liu Shujun, a farmer from Dongbangchai Village in Fulongquan Town, planted 10 hectares of corn this year. Since the beginning of summer the drought has been severe, and on some plots, because they could not be irrigated, the corn ears did not even grow. He said:

If the drought continues to worsen, this year's output will be reduced by at least half or more.

Yang Xueyan said that because precipitation in mid-August is expected to be significantly low, the drought-affected area will further expand and the severity of the drought will continue to worsen. At present, Jilin Province is strengthening drought monitoring, forecasting and early warning, while localities are stepping up drought relief by activating anti-drought wells and carrying out artificial rainfall.

And according to a report by China National Radio's "CNR News", Henan, a major grain province in central China, has also seen widespread drought across most of the province, with the drought-affected crop area already exceeding 23 million mu. According to the Office of the Henan Provincial Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters, most of Henan will continue to experience high-temperature “barbecue” weather this week, with no large-scale precipitation, and the province's drought will further intensify.

Precipitation across Henan is 60% less than the average of the same period in previous years, the lowest year since 1951. Since entering July, the province has experienced large-scale sustained high temperatures. At present, Henan's total reservoir water storage is 2.838 billion cubic meters, 1.35 billion cubic meters less than in previous years; 35% of the province's small reservoirs are basically dried up; apart from Xinyang and Zhumadian, other cities no longer have water for agricultural irrigation; and more than 50% of medium and small rivers have stopped flowing. Six cities, namely Pingdingshan, Xuchang, Dengfeng, Zhenping, Luanchuan and Xinmi, lack landmark water supply sources and have already activated backup groundwater sources or adopted water diversion measures. The province's groundwater level has dropped 1.8 meters compared with the same period last year. 245,000 people and more than 80,000 head of large livestock are experiencing temporary drinking water difficulties. By the 27th, the province's drought-affected area exceeded 23.1 million mu, with 6.1 million mu under severe drought.

The ever-expanding “drought map” poses a challenge to agricultural production. Agricultural experts say that during the drought period, most corn in China's Huang-Huai, North China and Northwest regions is at the bell-mouth stage, and rice is at the booting stage, growing and developing rapidly and requiring large amounts of water. The current drought has already hindered the crop growth process in some areas.

According to meteorological trend analysis, in early August, drought-affected areas such as North China, Huang-Huai and Jianghan will continue to see mostly high temperatures and little rain. The drought is unfavorable to the growth and development of autumn crops such as summer corn and cotton, and autumn crop yields may therefore decline, while a reduction in autumn crop yields will also drive up demand for wheat.

Some market participants believe that, based on concerns about reduced autumn grain output in the future, this will in turn stimulate wheat market demand in drought-affected areas, and wheat prices are expected to rise.

The Wall Street Journal website previously mentioned that data from the General Administration of Customs of China show that in the first 7 months of this year China imported a cumulative total of 11.34 million tons of grains and grain flour, surging 80.7% compared with the same period last year, triggering concerns about food security.

Since the beginning of this year, China's grain imports, especially wheat imports, have clearly accelerated. According to data provided by the Ministry of Agriculture, in the first half of the year China's wheat import growth rate exceeded 80%. By comparison, for the whole of last year China's wheat imports rose by less than 5%.

According to Xinhua News Agency, although “foreign grain” imports account for less than 5% of domestic output, the rebound in the growth rate of “foreign grain” imports has still sparked heated public discussion about food security.