Increased grain imports have little to do with the current drought

At present, some of China's major grain-producing areas are suffering from severe drought, which has affected the growth of autumn grain in some localities. Data recently released by the General Administration of Customs show that in the first seven months of this year, China imported a cumulative 11.34 million tons of cereals and cereal flour, an increase of 80.7% over the same period last year. Some people have raised the question: will the drought lead to an increase in grain imports? In response, a reporter from the Economic Daily conducted an investigation and interview——

In Xiangliu Village, Qiaoling Town, Pucheng County, Shaanxi Province, the land of farmer Sun Gongli did not get watered and has already suffered a total crop failure, but in the farmland water-saving demonstration area of Qiaoling Town not far away, the corn is growing well. Dang Gaobing, director of the Pucheng County Agricultural Technology Center, said that the demonstration area uses drip irrigation under plastic film, which can save two-thirds of the water. Even with this year's drought, drip irrigation can still use the limited water sources to meet the growth needs of corn. According to statistics from the Shaanxi Provincial Department of Agriculture, the disaster-affected area of autumn grain in the province reached 4 million mu, of which 2 million mu were damaged and 200,000 mu suffered total crop failure.

According to statistics from the State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters, as of August 12, the drought-affected area of crops nationwide was 65.89 million mu, and the main drought indicators were all lower than the multi-year average for the same period. As the drought situation changed, the central government allocated a cumulative 560 million yuan in special drought relief subsidies to support local governments in launching a "tough battle" for drought relief and disaster reduction. Since the beginning of summer, Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and other provinces (regions) have mobilized 9.12 million person-times of drought-relief labor and completed 170 million mu-times of drought-relief irrigation area.

Henan is a severely drought-hit area, with the drought-affected area close to half of the national affected area. Wei Mengguan, deputy director of the provincial Department of Agriculture, said that this year's drought was mainly caused by the combination of meteorological drought and lack of water sources. Rainfall was the lowest for the same period since 1951. Due to three consecutive years of summer and dog-day droughts of varying degrees, reservoir capacity has declined, river water volume has decreased, and the groundwater level has dropped by more than 10 m in the past 20 days, leaving some places with severely insufficient water sources for drought relief.

Prominent drought in some localities does not mean that the whole country is severely drought-hit. Li Guoxiang, a researcher at the Rural Development Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told reporters that drought occurs every year in China, and the national grain sown area has long remained stable at more than 1.6 billion mu. This year's drought-affected area is about more than 60 million mu. Although the drought is relatively severe in some local areas, overall the proportion of affected areas is still lower than in previous years, and the overall growth of autumn grain nationwide is optimistic.

The Ministry of Agriculture said that the current drought is regional and has an impact on autumn grain production in some areas, but most major autumn grain-producing areas such as Northeast China and the Yangtze River Basin have sufficient soil moisture, normal growth progress, and generally good crop growth. At present, the non-drought-hit areas in drought-affected provinces have high temperatures and sufficient sunlight, and autumn grain crops such as corn are growing well, which can also offset part of the disaster losses.

At present, the severe drought areas are mainly concentrated north of the Huai River, in the traditional drought areas south of the Yellow River, and in the long-standing drought areas of the northwest and Inner Mongolia. The main autumn grain crop in these areas is corn. Experts from the corn expert guidance group of the Ministry of Agriculture believe that the current drought mainly affects the "two ends": one end is corn sown early that has begun tasseling, causing failure to meet during the flowering period; the other end is fields sown relatively late and growing weakly, where the plants have not yet closed the rows, soil moisture is lost quickly, and leaves wilt and curl.

The annual grain output consists of summer grain, early rice and autumn grain. Previous data from the Ministry of Agriculture show that the national summer grain harvest was again bumper, up 3.6% from last year; early rice yield per unit area was flat or slightly increased, with most major producing areas showing a flat production trend, and the national total early rice output is expected to be another bumper harvest; for autumn grain, it is expected that the sown area of high-yield crops such as corn and rice will increase by more than 9 million mu this year. At present, domestic grain inventories are at a historic high.

Obviously, increased imports do not mean that domestic grain shortages have appeared, but rather that international grain prices are lower than domestic grain prices. International wheat, corn and rice prices have continued to decline, and the duty-paid landed import prices are generally lower than domestic prices. Because the tariff on grain imports within quota is only 1%, as long as foreign grain prices are lower than domestic ones, traders naturally find it worthwhile and can import. Of course, when international grain prices are low, importing an appropriate amount of grain to supplement domestic inventories can ease pressure on domestic resources and the environment.

According to statistics, at present U.S. corn is 0.97 yuan per jin, 0.3 yuan lower than domestic; Thai rice is 1.35 yuan per jin, 0.72 yuan lower than domestic late indica rice; Australian mixed wheat is 0.99 yuan per jin, 0.41 yuan lower than domestic high-quality wheat. Affected by the widening price gap at home and abroad, from January to May, China's net imports of cereals were 8.279 million tons, up 90.5% year on year, of which wheat imports were 2.459 million tons, up 1.1 times. In recent years, China's imports of rice, wheat and corn have accounted for only 2.4% of domestic output.

In addition, the increase in grain imports also involves the factor of variety adjustment. China still has insufficient supply of special varieties such as strong-gluten wheat, weak-gluten wheat and malting barley, which need to be supplemented through appropriate imports to make up for domestic shortages. Importing some Thai fragrant rice, Italian macaroni and the like is not only to meet the diverse needs of domestic consumers, but also to meet the consumption habits of the 30 million foreigners who come to China each year to invest, travel and work.