FAO and OECD Predict the Future of Agriculture
On July 11, 2014, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) jointly released the "OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2014-2023" in Rome, Italy. The following is an interpretation of the important information in the report concerning the development trends of China's major agricultural products, for reference.
Overall, although China will face pressure from slowing economic growth over the next 10 years, demand for agricultural products is expected to remain strong, and the supply capacity of major agricultural products such as grains, livestock products and aquatic products will also rise steadily. China is fully capable of ensuring its own food and nutritional security.
I. The tight balance between grain supply and demand will not undergo fundamental change
From 2014 to 2023, China's self-sufficiency rate for staple grains (rice and wheat) will remain above 98%; at the same time, China's coarse grain consumption is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.65%, slightly higher than the average annual growth rate of production of 1.47%. It is expected that by 2023, China's coarse grain imports will reach 16.9 million tons, of which corn imports will break through the 7.2 million ton tariff quota, climbing to around 10 million tons.
II. Imports of oilseeds and sugar will slow sharply
Although China's imports of oilseeds (including soybeans) will still show a growth trend in the future, expected to reach 81.46 million tons by 2023, the average annual growth rate will be only 1.87%, a marked decline from the past 10 years (12.08%); from 2014 to 2023, China's average annual growth rate of sugar imports is expected to be 0.98%, significantly lower than the 16.31% growth rate of the past 10 years.
III. Cotton production will stop falling and stabilize
Over the past 10 years, China's cotton production declined at an average annual rate of 0.62%. Looking ahead to 2014-2023, although China's cotton planting area is expected to continue to decline somewhat, thanks to the steady increase in per-unit yield and strong policy support, China's cotton production is expected to stop falling and stabilize. It is expected that by 2023, China's cotton production will stabilize at around 6.3 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of 0.33% during the outlook period.
IV. Meat imports will become more active
Due to strong domestic consumer demand, China's meat imports will show rapid growth over the next 10 years, with pork imports increasing the most and beef imports growing the fastest. It is expected that by 2023, China's imports of pork, beef, mutton and poultry meat will reach 1.4 million tons, 840,000 tons, 370,000 tons and 930,000 tons respectively, growing by 167.75%, 441.94%, 240.00% and 82.23% respectively compared with the base period (2011-2013).
V. The dairy industry is expected to recover
At present, China's dairy industry is at a crossroads, facing a series of challenges and opportunities. In 2013, China's milk production fell to 35.31 million tons, a sharp drop of 5.70% year on year; at the same time, it should be noted that the competitive pressure brought about by increased imports of fresh milk and dairy products may force the domestic dairy industry to accelerate its transformation and upgrading and embark on the path of developing large-scale farming, which will significantly raise the per-unit yield level. It is expected that by 2023, China's milk production is expected to reach 52.08 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of 2.65%.
VI. Aquatic product exports will grow steadily
It is expected that by 2023, China's total aquatic product exports will reach 10.34 million tons, an increase of 27.88% over the base period (2011-2013). China's position as a major exporter of aquatic products in the world will be further consolidated, but the average annual growth rate of aquatic product exports is expected to be 2.20%, lower than the 4.37% growth rate of the past 10 years.
(Contributed by Xu Lei, Associate Researcher, Agricultural Information Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences)