An Analysis of Current Hidden Dangers in China's Agricultural Security and Strategic Choices
On November 12, 2013, the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China adopted the "Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Some Major Issues Concerning Comprehensively Deepening the Reform," proposing that China would “establish a National Security Committee, improve the national security system and national security strategy, and ensure national security.” This marked that the Party Central Committee would from then on examine China's national security issues from a strategic height and in an all-round way. National security can be divided into traditional security and non-traditional security. As the possibility of large-scale war gradually decreases, non-traditional security issues have increasingly become an important factor affecting national security. For China, among these non-traditional security factors, agricultural security deserves particular attention.
I. The Characteristics of Agricultural Production and Its Important Role
As is well known, agriculture is a sector of social material production that obtains effective products by realizing and strengthening the natural reproduction of plants, animals and microorganisms through human labor. In other words, the production process of agriculture is a process of continuously creating life, a process of continuously growing and reproducing organisms useful to humans, and the object of agricultural production is living biological organisms. This fundamental characteristic determines that agriculture is an industry that must bear more risks than other industries such as industry and commerce. It must not only face market risks like other industries, but also bear natural risks that other industries do not encounter.
Because the growth and reproduction of biological organisms are subject to natural conditions and biological laws, the general production cycle is relatively long. During the months-long growth process of crops, floods and droughts, pests and diseases, abnormal temperatures, and wind and rain at inappropriate times can all be potentially fatal hazards. For the breeding industry, disease prevention and control are very important, and inexplicable infectious diseases can very likely escalate into catastrophic disasters.
Even market risks, which exist just as in other industries, are sometimes even more fatal to fresh agricultural products. This is because industrial products can at least be stored, whereas some fresh agricultural products such as aquatic products, fruits and vegetables must be sold promptly; if they cannot be sold in time, one may lose everything. In recent years, tragedies of plummeting fruit and vegetable prices have frequently played out in some parts of China. For example, in 2011 in Shandong, Jiangsu and other places, Chinese cabbages could not be sold even at 2 fen per head, while in Jiayu, Hubei, cabbages fell to 1 fen and still no one wanted them; in February 2013, the purchase price of peppers in Ding'an, Hainan, fell to 3 mao, and they rotted in the fields with no one buying them; in October 2013, one million kilograms of sweet pomelos in Anyuan, Ganzhou, Jiangxi, encountered sales difficulties, and a large number went unsold; after the Spring Festival in 2014, about 1,000 mu of winter Chinese cabbages went unsold in Wenling, Taizhou, Zhejiang, and vegetable farmers could only watch helplessly as the cabbages rotted in the fields. These phenomena are indeed truly heartbreaking, but such phenomena may still occur from time to time for a relatively long period in the future.
Therefore, the characteristics of agriculture itself determine that it is an industry that must bear more risks than other industries such as industry and commerce, and it is a naturally weak-quality industry.
⟦NL> However, although agriculture is a naturally weak-quality industry and its output value accounts for a low proportion of the GDP of countries around the world, especially in developed countries where the proportion of agricultural output value can be described as negligible, countries around the world, especially developed countries, attach great importance to this special industry of agriculture, because agriculture has special significance for every country.
The traditional understanding of the important role of agriculture generally has two aspects: first, agriculture provides us with various daily necessities such as food; second, agriculture provides industry with the raw materials needed for production. Therefore, agriculture is the foundation of the national economy. But from a more modern and more comprehensive perspective, the significance of agriculture is far greater than this. In addition to the above significance, agriculture is also significant in the following aspects:
First, agriculture has environmental and ecological value. Suitable agriculture can not only provide the agricultural products necessary for human life, but also produce pleasant scenery and clean air, and will become an important guarantee for the healthy survival of humanity. With the increase in urbanization and the continuous spread of postmodern values, the value of agriculture in environmental and ecological terms, as well as in terms of healthy human survival, will become increasingly prominent.
Second, agriculture has the function of preserving and continuing cultural diversity. The mode of production determines the mode of life. Closely connected with the agricultural mode of production is the rural way of life. Unlike urban life, rural life is closer to nature, has a more peaceful rhythm, and can give people greater space for imagination. As urbanization accelerates, opportunities to experience the rural way of life will become increasingly scarce. Fortunately, the existence of agriculture provides the possibility of preserving and continuing the rural way of life and offers people the opportunity to realize this dream. With the continuous improvement of rural infrastructure and the continuous improvement of production and living conditions, the viability of agriculture and rural life will be further strengthened, and their attractiveness will also be further enhanced.
Third, and most importantly, agriculture has political significance and strategic value, and is related to the country's social and political stability and national security. This is determined by the commodity characteristics of agricultural products and the characteristics of agricultural production. On the one hand, agricultural products, especially grain, as a special commodity, have inelastic demand and require long-term stable supply. Once a shortage occurs, it will endanger the basic needs of the people and produce social panic. On the other hand, because agricultural production requires certain seasons and cycles, when a shortage of agricultural products occurs, it is impossible to rely on the country's own strength to quickly organize production, and one can only rely on the international market, which may make one vulnerable to others and endanger national security. China is a country with a large population, and the pressure on food security and agricultural security is even more prominent, so the significance of agriculture in the country's political and security strategy is even more special.
II. Unfavorable Conditions for China's Agriculture
Due to objective and historical reasons, the unfavorable conditions of China's agriculture are more prominent than those of other countries. In addition to the factors of agriculture's own natural disadvantages, there are three main aspects: first, the scale of farmland is too small; second, there is a lack of a socialized service system; third, investment in science and technology is seriously insufficient.
The fact that Chinese farmers' farmland scale is too small was formed due to objective conditions and historical reasons. China already has a large population and little land, and moreover is in the process of urbanization. Therefore, the average land owned by each farming household is pitifully small, less than even 0.5 hectares, while the average farm size in developed countries is as high as several hundred hectares or even several thousand hectares. A farmland scale that is too small makes it difficult to achieve even the minimum economies of scale, let alone bring farmers higher incomes, and it is also impossible to have strong market competitiveness.
Although the agricultural management mode in Western countries, like that in China, is also family-based, agricultural production in developed countries has a very developed socialized service system. The agricultural socialized service system is the general term for a complete set of organizational institutions and methods and systems that provide socialized services for agricultural production. It is a socialized form of agricultural economic organization that uses the forces of all sectors of society to enable agricultural production units with relatively small operating scales to adapt to the requirements of the market economy system, overcome the drawbacks of their small scale, and obtain large-scale production benefits. Most farmers in developed countries have joined some kind of agricultural cooperative, and some farming households have even joined multiple agricultural cooperatives at the same time. The proportion of farming households joining cooperatives in European countries is above 90%, and the proportion of farming households participating in cooperatives in North America and Australia is also above 80%. Through cooperatives, they can obtain all-round socialized services such as necessary supply of means of production, credit services, production technology, storage and transportation, and markets. However, the proportion of Chinese farming households joining specialized cooperatives is only about 10%, and the ability of these cooperatives to provide socialized services is also far from sufficient. Therefore, China's agricultural business activities seriously lack a corresponding socialized service system.
In terms of investment in agricultural science and technology, although the Chinese government's investment in agricultural science and technology has been continuously increasing in recent years, there is still a relatively large gap compared with developed countries in Europe and America. Starting in 1950, the U.S. government and enterprises steadily increased scientific research funding for agriculture, reaching 9.6 billion U.S. dollars in 2008, accounting for about 20% of global agricultural science and technology research and development funding. The U.S. government's investment in agricultural science and technology is mainly in basic research fields that do not have direct economic benefits but have a major impact on the future development of agriculture, and the annual growth rate of its agricultural science and technology investment has remained above 8%. In contrast, China's investment in agricultural science and technology has a single main body and a relatively small amount. In 2011, central fiscal investment in science and technology reached only 18.7 billion yuan, and even adding local government investment, the total would not exceed 20 billion yuan. If compared in terms of agricultural science and technology investment intensity, China not only lags behind developed countries, but is also below the average level of developing countries. China's agricultural science and technology investment intensity is only 0.54%, equivalent to only 1/7 of that of the United States, or 50% of that of developing countries.
III. The Main Risks Facing China's Agricultural Security
Agriculture has important political and strategic value for China. Therefore, for a rising major country with a large population like China, the consequences produced by the unfavorable conditions of agriculture are even more severe, and may even exacerbate the security situation currently facing China.
In view of the natural weakness of agriculture due to the characteristics of agricultural production and the unfavorable conditions formed by objective and historical reasons, the risks currently facing China's agricultural security situation are very severe. In recent years, under the combined effect of the diplomatic policies of major Western powers and the manipulation and speculation of multinational corporations, resources such as oil, water and grain in the world have become increasingly scarce, and the competition among countries for these resources has already emerged and will inevitably intensify in the future. Agricultural product resources such as grain and seeds will become important weapons in the competitive game among major powers and in restricting China's rise. Therefore, we must recognize that the risks currently facing China's agricultural security are complex and multiple:
First, agriculture lacks sufficient attractiveness. Because of agriculture's relatively low profitability, relatively high operating risk and its special status, developed countries in the world generally adopt various measures to ensure the realization of the economic interests of their own farmers and reduce the operating risks of agriculture. Although since entering the 21st century the Party and the government have introduced a series of policies benefiting farmers, due to the obstacles of the unfavorable conditions of China's agricultural production, generally speaking Chinese farmers find it difficult to fully maximize their own economic interests through the market, and the attractiveness of agriculture to farmers is constantly declining. This in turn causes farmers to generally lack interest in agricultural production, and they are either unwilling to engage in agricultural production, or plant only a small amount of crops for their own living needs and are unwilling to carry out commercial production, and even less willing to study how to improve agricultural production technology. At the same time, because of the lack of necessary guidance and help, farmers are more willing to make their own production decisions according to short-term market signals. When the price of a certain agricultural product falls, they will withdraw one after another from the production of that agricultural product. For example, China is the country of origin of soybeans and was a net exporter of soybeans before 1995, but due to the impact of imported soybeans, Chinese farmers withdrew one after another from soybean cultivation, and by 2000 China had become the world's largest soybean importer. China's soybean imports in 2013 were 63.4 million tons, and the import dependence of soybeans reached more than 80%. China's experience with soybeans is one example. If agriculture cannot be sufficiently attractive to farmers, and farmers completely follow short-term market signals, then other agricultural products in China are also very likely to follow in the footsteps of soybeans.
Second, there are risks to food security. Grain is a special commodity with inelastic demand. People will not eat more because the price is low, nor will they stop eating because the price is high. Once a grain shortage occurs, it will inevitably cause panic and even social and political instability. In this sense, grain is absolutely not an ordinary commodity, but a commodity with strategic value. China has a large population and a large demand for grain. In addition, with the traditional concept that “food is the first necessity of the people,” the consequences of a grain shortage may be even more serious and will inevitably affect political stability and national security. In November 2013, General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out at a symposium at the Shandong Academy of Agricultural Sciences that ensuring food security is an eternal topic for China and must never be relaxed at any time. Historical experience tells us that once a major famine occurs, having money is useless.