A New Strategy for Food Security: China Feeds China

Brown's “grain grabbing theory” about China once again alerts us that China, as the world's most populous country, cannot be fed by the world, and the string of food security must always be kept firmly taut. We must start from two aspects: improving domestic grain production capacity and ensuring grain import capacity from the international market, firmly hold the bottom line of food security, and keep the Chinese people's rice bowl firmly in our own hands, never slackening our vigilance at any time.

“Feeding ourselves” has always been a major strategic issue of overall importance for China's economic development, social stability and national independence. In the 1990s, Brown raised the question of “Who will feed China?”, questioning China's food security. Scientific arguments by Chinese and foreign scholars and the facts of China's grain development have proven that China is not only fully capable of “feeding itself”, but can also make great contributions to world food security. The Chinese people's rice bowl must be firmly held in our own hands, and China has the ability to hold its rice bowl firmly. There is no need to “grab grain” internationally, still less will China pose a threat to world food security; rather, China can help the people of the world solve their food problems.

Chinese and Foreign Scholars Discuss “Who Will Feed China”

In 1994, Lester Brown, director of the Worldwatch Institute of the United States, argued in his article “Who Will Feed China” that in the course of industrialization, along with population growth and changes in consumption structure, China's future grain demand would increase substantially; due to problems such as “reduced cultivated land”, “water scarcity” and “environmental destruction”, China's future grain output would decline, and China would face a huge grain gap. For this reason, China would become increasingly dependent on grain imports and would impact world grain supply and prices. Even if China had sufficient foreign exchange reserves, the international market could not possibly provide such a massive grain supply to 1.3 billion Chinese people. Brown's conclusion was: China not only cannot feed itself, but the world cannot feed China either. China's grain shortage would “buy up” the world grain market, causing worldwide grain shortages and price increases, and triggering global political and ecological crises. He warned the world: “Food shortages accompanied by economic instability pose a threat to security far greater than military invasion.” Brown's view became part of the “China threat theory”. In 2008, Brown stressed in an interview in Beijing that “Who will feed China” remained a question and that his view had not changed. He further proposed that by the 2030s China's population would reach 1.6 billion, and who would feed China then, and who would save the world from the resulting global grain shortage and turbulent crisis? Subsequently, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times, The Wall Street Journal and others published commentaries one after another, arguing that “China's grain problem will endanger the food security of the world's people”, that “China's grain shortage will be more terrifying than military invasion”, that “China is the world's greatest threat”, and so on.

The doubts of Brown and others provoked questioning from Chinese and foreign scholars. Lin Yifu argued in his article “The Chinese People Have the Ability to Feed Themselves” that the Chinese government has always attached importance to the grain issue, that “no grain, no stability” is the foundation of China's political wisdom, and that with the improvement of economic and social development and the flexible adjustment of grain policy, China has been, is and will be able to produce enough grain to feed itself. In 1996, the Information Office of the State Council of China published “China's Grain Issue”, pointing out that New China had solved the people's problem of feeding themselves, that China could rely on its own strength to achieve basic grain self-sufficiency, and that by improving comprehensive grain production capacity, advancing the strategy of invigorating agriculture through science and education, transforming the mode of grain growth, deepening institutional reform and improving the policy environment for circulation, China could achieve sustainable agricultural development and the Chinese people were fully capable of feeding themselves. Frederick Crook of the Economic Research Service of the United States Department of Agriculture argued in his article “Could China Really Starve the World?” that Brown's prediction ignored the role of the self-correcting mechanism in a market economy, that China's producers and consumers could respond clearly to changes in grain prices, that policymakers could also effectively respond to changing domestic and international economic environments, that China's grain output would not decline but had considerable room for growth in the future, and that Chinese farmers in the 21st century could feed the Chinese people.

The Real-World Response to “China Feeds China”

Facts speak louder than words. Whether the predictions of Brown and others are correct needs to be tested by the facts of China's grain development, and the best way to refute their views is to let the facts speak. In the mid-1990s, the understanding in the article “China Feeds China” by the Japanese scholar Haku Chōishi and Yoshiyuki Nagai has become an objective reality. Twenty years have passed, and not only have the Chinese people not swept away the supply of the world grain market with their powerful purchasing power, but China's total grain output and per capita grain output have both increased substantially. While feeding themselves, the Chinese people are also feeding the world. This is mainly manifested in the following: First, China has achieved a basic balance between grain supply and demand, with the self-sufficiency rate of major grains consistently maintained above 95%. Second, China has become a grain donor to the international community. Starting from 2006, China no longer accepted free grain aid provided by the World Food Programme, and China has gone from a grain recipient country to an important grain donor country. Third, China's food security index is in a state of “good performance”. Over more than 30 years of reform and opening up, with little reliance on imports, domestic grain production has met the Chinese people's grain needs and diversified dietary structure.

Recently, Brown once again stirred up the topic of “whether the world can feed China”, claiming that China's grain imports have increased sharply, that the structural grain gap continues to widen, that China is accelerating its international “grain grabbing” and so on, hyping the “China grain threat theory”, and doubts about whether China can feed itself are once again clamorous in the world. In response to this hype, a realistic and rational analysis is needed. In recent years, China's imports of agricultural products have increased somewhat, mainly based on the following circumstances. First, international grain prices are lower than domestic grain prices, and the effect of economic laws has triggered an impulse to import, which is by no means the result of domestic grain shortage. Second, moderate imports of high-end, high-quality varieties meet diverse domestic consumption needs and adjust domestic surpluses and shortages; this is a realistic choice under the trend of internationalization of agricultural product trade. Third, the product imported in relatively larger quantities is mainly soybeans, which are not counted as grain in international statistics. If grain imports alone are counted, in 2013 they were more than 14 million tons, accounting for less than 2.6% of domestic grain output and about 4% of the international market share. It can be seen that there is no situation of China “grabbing grain” internationally, and there is no basis for talking about a “China grain threat theory”.

⟦NL> A New Strategy for Food Security——Building a New Strategy of “China Feeds China”

Brown's “grain grabbing theory” about China once again alerts us that China, as the world's most populous country, cannot be fed by the world, and the string of food security must always be kept firmly taut. We must start from two aspects: improving domestic grain production capacity and ensuring grain import capacity from the international market, firmly hold the bottom line of food security, and keep the Chinese people's rice bowl firmly in our own hands, never slackening our vigilance at any time. On the one hand, we must continuously strengthen comprehensive domestic grain production capacity. First, “protect land”: the amount of cultivated land retained is a precondition for achieving food security. We must unswervingly uphold the red line of 1.8 billion mu of cultivated land, hold the bottom lines of 1.6 billion mu of grain sown area and 1.4 billion mu of cereal sown area, and protect both the quantity and the quality of cultivated land. Second, adhere to the principle of “enriching” farmers: without the interests of grain farmers, there is no food security. By improving policies to strengthen agriculture, benefit farmers and enrich farmers, and by implementing the “four subsidies” policy well, new agricultural subsidies should be tilted toward new types of business entities such as large grain-growing households, family farms and farmers' cooperatives, so that those who produce more grain receive more subsidies; improve the interest compensation mechanism for major grain-producing areas, effectively protect and mobilize the enthusiasm of local governments for grain production and farmers for growing grain, cultivate new types of agricultural business entities, develop appropriately scaled operations, and raise the level and efficiency of grain growing. Third, increase “investment in infrastructure”: increase investment in agricultural infrastructure, accelerate implementation of the “National Overall Plan for the Construction of High-Standard Farmland”, and through implementing fertile soil projects, organic matter improvement projects, agricultural environmental governance projects and so on, improve the sustainable development capacity of grain production. Fourth, vigorously develop agricultural science and technology, promote progress in agricultural science and technology, and give play to the supporting role of science and technology. In 2013, the contribution rate of agricultural science and technology progress reached 55.2%, and it will be further raised in the future. We must deepen reform of the seed industry system and accelerate the cultivation of a number of breakthrough superior varieties with major application prospects and independent intellectual property rights; by promoting the combination of agricultural machinery and agronomy, accelerate the process of full mechanization of grain production; by promoting integrated technological innovation, carry out large-scale high-yield creation and grain yield increase model research on a large scale, and promote the application of key technologies in households and fields.

On the other hand, we must broaden our vision, base ourselves on global resource endowments, give play to comparative advantages, import grain moderately, improve our ability to control sources of grain in the international market, and ensure China's food security. First, “import cautiously”: we must prudently grasp the scale, pace, methods and layout of grain imports, give the international market stable expectations, release import demand slowly and in a balanced way, and give the international market a process of reaction and time to increase production capacity. Second, “diversify”: pay attention to the diversification of imported varieties, markets, regions and countries of origin, and diversify import methods, so as to reduce the negative impact brought by fluctuations in the international grain market.

As a responsible major country, grounded in the domestic and facing the world, the concept that the Chinese people's rice bowl must be firmly held in our own hands has remained unchanged, and China has the ability to hold its rice bowl firmly. China can not only feed China, but has no need to “grab grain” internationally, still less will it pose a threat to world food security; moreover, it can help solve the food problems of the people of the world.