Corn arrivals slow somewhat as farmers' reluctance to sell intensifies

Spot Market

Northeast production region: increased supply pushes prices lower, farmers' attitudes vary

Grain supply in the Northeast production region keeps flowing in, and lower prices are the inevitable result. With rumors about reserve policy swirling, overall buying and selling in the production region has successively entered a cautious state. In the Liaoning production region, because prices have moved lower, farmers' reluctance to sell has gradually deepened, but buying and selling in Heilongjiang and Jilin is in a relatively stable state, and farmers' enthusiasm for selling grain is relatively high.

North China production region: reluctance to sell intensifies, arrivals decrease

In the early and middle stages of the new grain coming to market, corn prices in North China fell fairly quickly, and because farmers mainly used old-crop grain prices as their reference, their reluctance to sell was fairly obvious given the large price gap between old and new corn. Due to farmers' reluctance to sell as well as the impact of smog, new grain arrivals decreased compared with the earlier period, and prices in Shandong and some other areas rebounded slightly.

Southern sales regions: enterprises' purchasing increases slowly, prices oscillate weakly

Against the backdrop of policy rumors, grain-using enterprises in the southern sales regions are also relatively cautious in overall buying and selling, and corn prices are generally weak. This week, due to enterprises' restocking demand, overall purchasing increased compared with last week, but with the outlook unclear, enterprises have no willingness to purchase in large quantities. As new grain from North China enters the sales regions in greater volume, prices in the sales regions have fallen considerably compared with the earlier period, and grain-using enterprises remain fairly bearish on the outlook for new North China grain.

North and South ports: North port steady with slight gains, South port keeps sliding

Traders at Guangdong port are generally becoming more bearish in their selling stance, and mainstream corn quotations continue yesterday's downward trend. Mainstream quotes at the port for new corn at 15% moisture are 2460-2470 yuan/tonne, down 10-20 yuan/tonne; quotes for high-quality corn on a truck-delivery basis are 2460-2470 yuan/tonne, down 10-30 yuan/tonne; container self-pickup price for new corn at 15% moisture is 2510-2520 yuan/tonne, down 10-20 yuan/tonne. Northern ports are steady with slight gains, Jinzhou port is tending toward stability, and Bayuquan corn quotes edged up within their range. The mainstream purchase price for high-quality new corn at Bayuquan is 2300-2310 yuan/tonne, up 10 yuan/tonne.

Feed and livestock farming: pig prices oscillate weakly, North-South price gap will narrow

This week, national pig prices continued to oscillate weakly and steady, with about two-thirds of provinces changing by within 0.10 yuan/kg. Although pig prices in the Southwest remain high, downward pressure on prices persists, so the North-South pig price gap is gradually narrowing. But it will still take some time for the three Northeast provinces to emerge from the pig price trough, and a big rise is unlikely in the short term. Temperatures in Guangdong and other provinces are relatively high, and pork consumption has not risen, but pig prices in Guangdong are relatively high compared with the rest of the country, and most local farmers are not in a hurry to send pigs to market, so the market remains stable. In Zhoukou, Henan, due to the impact of the epidemic, there are signs of large-scale panic selling of live pigs, the pig market is viewed bearishly, and local farmers lack confidence in the pig market. Slaughtering enterprises still show no momentum for large-scale stockpiling recently, pork prices remain sluggish, and it is hard for them to provide favorable support for pig prices. The recent period falls in a gap between festivals, favorable factors are lacking, and the market is expected to continue the existing situation, with slight adjustments in some areas due to temperature, disease and other factors.

Deep processing: terminal consumption is weak, product prices lack support

Affected by weak terminal consumption and by the continuous sharp decline in purchase prices at Northeast deep-processing enterprises caused by corn from the production region coming to market in batches, product prices kept falling and lacked strong support. Among these, the price drop in starch was fairly obvious; besides the impact of weak terminal consumption and lower raw material prices, it was also caused by a higher starch operating rate and increased supply. Alcohol prices were relatively stable, mainly due to the slow recovery of the alcohol operating rate recently.

Market forecast

At present, the market's overall focus is on policy, and a fairly cautious atmosphere clearly hangs over the market. Corn supply in the Northeast production region has increased, and downward pressure on prices is relatively strong, but affected by policy rumors, the decline is limited; in the North China production region, affected by the earlier “oversold” situation, farmers' reluctance to sell has intensified and corn arrivals have slowed somewhat; in the sales regions, as grain from North China arrives, grain-using enterprises are increasing purchases within reasonable prices.