China's agriculture faces three major risks; deeper understanding needed of "two antis and one safeguard" trade remedy measures

In response to the current severe situation in which net imports of bulk agricultural products are rapidly expanding and causing serious damage or threat to relevant domestic industries, and in order to discuss countermeasures and deepen the industry's understanding of trade remedy measures such as "two antis and one safeguard," the Trade Promotion Center of the Ministry of Agriculture organized a seminar on agricultural industry security and trade remedies on October 24.

Director Ni Hongxing emphasized in his speech that, as a major agricultural and populous country, we should measure whether China's agricultural industry is secure from three aspects, namely the capacity for basic supply of agricultural products and safeguarding farmers' livelihoods, the capacity for sustainable agricultural development, and the capacity to control the industry. If any one of these aspects is weakened, industry security faces challenges. With weak basic competitiveness and a lack of matching tariff levels, China's agriculture is bound to face three major risks. First, import runaway. Once the price gap between domestic and international markets exceeds the maximum tariff level, imports will spiral out of control, and the goal of "moderate imports" of grain will face challenges. Second, policy failure. When the landed cost of imports is lower than the temporary storage price or the minimum purchase price, that policy will cease to function. Third, industry unsustainability. When the landed cost of imports is lower than domestic production costs, domestic industries will find it difficult to survive and develop. Amid the recent situation of persistently high growth in net imports of bulk agricultural products, some domestic agricultural industries are facing the above risks and challenges. There is an urgent need to study the use of trade remedy measures to effectively safeguard agricultural industry security, and to study the establishment of a long-term mechanism for launching trade remedy measures.

In recent years, China's agricultural production costs have risen rapidly. Coupled with relatively ample supply in the international agricultural products market and long-term sluggish market prices, the price gap between domestic and international markets has continued to widen. The surge in agricultural product imports driven by price gaps has dealt a severe blow to domestic industries. Sugar, cotton and rapeseed oil, affected by import shocks, all face the predicament of serious inventory backlogs and difficulty selling at a profit, and the continued survival and development of these industries face severe challenges. Experts believe that, in the context of global economic integration, emphasis should be placed on using laws, rights and rules to safeguard agricultural industry security, establishing a cooperation mechanism among industry departments, industry associations and relevant institutions for initiating trade remedy cases, and legally safeguarding the interests of domestic industries. In the long run, an agricultural trade damage compensation mechanism should be established, supported by an industry damage monitoring and early warning system, an industry damage risk assessment system, and an industry damage compensation system and implementation framework, working together with policy measures such as domestic support, border protection, foreign investment regulation and trade promotion to safeguard and protect domestic agricultural industry security. At the same time, a special fund for trade remedies should be established, a technical team for initiating agricultural trade remedy cases should be formed, research and response concerning countries and products with a large import impact on the domestic market should be strengthened, and long-term preparations should be made to facilitate the successful initiation of trade remedy cases.

The views and consensus formed at this meeting deepened the industry's understanding of "two antis and one safeguard" trade remedy measures, and have important reference value for advancing China's agricultural trade remedy work and establishing a long-term mechanism to safeguard agricultural industry security.