Rice prices emerge from the doldrums, corn prices bottom out and rebound

Data released by the Anhui Survey Office of the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in the third quarter of 2014, grain production prices in the province rose 4.3% year on year. Among them, rice prices rose 6.3% year on year, wheat prices rose 2.4%, and corn prices rose 3.9%. Because this year's total autumn grain output will exceed last year's, grain prices overall are expected to remain stable for the full year.

After more than a year in the doldrums, rice prices have seen their year-on-year increase widen somewhat this year: up 1.8% year on year in the first quarter, up 5.3% in the second quarter, and up 6.3% in the third quarter. In the third quarter, the province's early indica rice price was 2.55 yuan/kg, up 6.3% year on year. In most areas this year, the opening purchase price for early indica rice was around 2.5 yuan/kg, and after the protective price was activated, the price rose to around 2.6 yuan/kg. Because nearly 2 months of continuous rainy weather prolonged the growth period of mid-to-late rice and delayed the harvest and market arrival of newly produced mid-to-late indica rice in 2014, in the third quarter the province's mid-season indica rice price was 2.63 yuan/kg, up 5.2% year on year, and the japonica rice price was 2.84 yuan/kg, up 14.1% year on year.

Corn prices across the province showed a trend of bottoming out and rebounding. In the first quarter, corn prices in the province rose 1.4% year on year. In the second quarter, affected by the continuous decline in hog prices and reduced feed demand, corn prices fell from 2.15 yuan/kg in the first quarter to 2.08 yuan/kg, down 0.5% year on year. In the third quarter, corn prices rose to 2.38 yuan/kg, up 3.9% year on year. Because July and August are the season when corn supply is in a gap between the old and new crops, farmers had relatively little corn left in storage and became more reluctant to sell, waiting for a better price, and after late August corn prices rose rapidly. At the same time, because the Northeast region and Henan were affected by drought, corn showed a trend toward reduced output, strengthening expectations of higher corn prices. The current rise in livestock and poultry prices and the increased demand for feed in the breeding sector were also important factors pushing corn prices higher.

According to the latest monitoring data, since late October the overall trend of grain prices has become stable. In the monitoring for early November, the ex-warehouse price of corn per 50 kg was only 1.6 yuan higher than in late October, while the retail prices of monitored varieties such as early indica rice, mid-season indica rice, late indica rice and late japonica rice showed mixed gains and losses. Among them, the retail price of early indica rice per 50 kg fell by about 1 yuan compared with late October, while late indica rice rose by about 2 yuan. According to analysis by the provincial agricultural committee, because this year's autumn grain planting area expanded and natural disasters were lighter than in previous years, the overall autumn harvest situation is settled, and total output will exceed last year's. As autumn grain enters the market on a large scale, grain prices are expected to continue their current stable trend.