Arrange production and sales sensibly based on seed market trends
After entering November, the late-autumn crop of Chinese cabbage from Hebei, Beijing and Shandong came onto the market in large volumes, and supply was very ample. On November 18, the wholesale price of Chinese cabbage at the Xinfadi market was 0.25-0.3 yuan/jin, up 10% week-on-week, down 35.29% month-on-month, and down 35.29% from the same period last year.
Recent feedback from producing areas shows that this autumn, the planted area of Chinese cabbage in North China and East China was basically flat compared with the same period last year, with increases and decreases varying by location, and the supply situation should basically be the same as last year. However, weather conditions were better than last year, and per-mu yields increased, making the total output of Chinese cabbage this autumn and winter slightly higher than the same period last year. Farmers in Zaozhuang, Shandong, report that last year the per-mu yield of Chinese cabbage was generally around 10,000 jin, while this year it generally exceeded 10,000 jin, and some plots could reach 14,000 jin. The bumper harvest of Chinese cabbage this autumn and winter was mainly due to increased per-mu yields.
With the total output increase being slightly larger, the price of Chinese cabbage fell sharply year-on-year, mainly for the following 3 reasons:
Recently, the prices of many vegetables have been noticeably lower than the same period last year. According to statistics from the Xinfadi market, since March this year, the weighted average price of vegetables has remained at a low level for the same period in 5 years. There is a price relationship between Chinese cabbage and other vegetables, and declines in the prices of other vegetable varieties will also pull down the price of Chinese cabbage.
Chinese cabbage's status as the staple winter vegetable for residents in northern regions has already been shaken. In recent years, because the winter vegetable supply has been abundant and ample, urban residents rarely store Chinese cabbage for winter anymore. November is exactly when large volumes of northern Chinese cabbage come onto the market, and urban residents no longer store cabbage for winter, which has caused market volumes to be concentrated, sales to progress slowly, and even some difficulty in selling.
The household labor of storing Chinese cabbage for winter has evolved into socialized labor. With social development, the work of storing Chinese cabbage for winter has progressed from scattered storage by individual households to large-scale, specialized storage, mainly carried out by farmers and distributors. In the past two years, storers using commercial cold storage have mostly suffered losses, so this year storers' willingness to store Chinese cabbage for winter has weakened, and the pressure has shifted to farmers.
No matter who stores it, they always hope to profit, and only when the later price is viewed favorably is there motivation for winter storage. There are two uncertain factors in the later price trend of Chinese cabbage:
First, this winter may be a cold winter. In the summer of 2014, an El Nino phenomenon had already formed over the western Pacific, and reflected into winter, some meteorological observatories have already made predictions, believing that this winter may be a cold winter. Once a cold winter arrives, the most direct impact is that facility-grown vegetables in the north grow slowly, causing output per unit time to decline, and prices will rise. In southern regions, low-temperature overcast and rainy weather may increase, which will also affect vegetable output and cause winter vegetable supply to be relatively tight.
Second, in the spring of 2014, difficulty in selling Chinese cabbage appeared across a wide area nationwide. This phenomenon may affect Chinese cabbage production next spring, causing a gap in the supply transition between new and old Chinese cabbage.
Because there are uncertain factors in the later price trend of Chinese cabbage, it is still difficult to judge whether winter storage of Chinese cabbage will incur losses, so storing an appropriate amount of Chinese cabbage for winter is still feasible.
In Tangshan, Hebei, winter storage of Chinese cabbage is carried out in cellars, which can keep it in good original condition; after being taken out of the cellar, the leaves are still green and the selling price is relatively high. In southern Hebei and most of Shandong, winter storage of Chinese cabbage is carried out above ground, stacking the Chinese cabbage and covering it, which reduces labor. Both methods save costs compared with storage in commercial cold storage and have a certain price advantage.
Therefore, given the bumper harvest of Chinese cabbage this autumn, farmers do not need to rush to sell and can store an appropriate amount for winter.
In the past, some people advised farmers to use reverse thinking when growing vegetables: do not expand planting just because this year's price is high, and do not reduce planting just because the price is low. This advice has its reasonable aspects, but it is not entirely advisable. Because when everyone uses reverse thinking, low-price or high-price levels may appear for several consecutive production cycles. Therefore, when farmers arrange planting plans, they must pay attention to seed sales; once seeds sell well, the vegetables of that variety may sell poorly.
Likewise, to judge the planting situation of Chinese cabbage next spring, it is necessary now to pay attention to seed sales and price trends. If sales of cabbage seeds cool down next spring, winter-stored Chinese cabbage may sell well by spring. If cabbage seeds are still selling well now, then the cabbage in farmers' hands should be converted into cash at an appropriate time.