Grain imports will not increase substantially; the "China grain threat" theory does not exist

Bi Meijia, Chief Economist and Press Spokesperson of the Ministry of Agriculture, recently responded to the “China grain threat” theory, pointing out that imports of the three major grains - rice, wheat and corn - currently account for only 2.4% of domestic production, which is relatively low. In the future, it may be appropriate to import some varieties that are in short supply domestically, but grain imports will not increase substantially, so the “China grain threat” theory does not exist.

The State Council Information Office recently held a press conference to brief on China's grain production situation this year and other related matters. Bi Meijia, Chief Economist and Press Spokesperson of the Ministry of Agriculture, and Zeng Yande, Director of the Department of Crop Production of the Ministry of Agriculture, answered questions from reporters.

⟦NL> Bi Meijia emphasized that relying on the international market to solve the food problem of the Chinese people is unreliable and unrealistic. First, the world's grain trade volume is limited. It is understood that the global annual grain trade volume is currently between 500 billion jin and 600 billion jin, which is less than half of China's grain demand. The rice trade volume is about 70 billion jin, equivalent to only 1/4 of China's rice consumption.

In recent years, China's grain imports have increased somewhat, but the total volume is not very large. This is mainly because grain prices on the international market are lower than in China, and also to meet China's diverse domestic consumer demand, which requires appropriately importing some fine varieties for adjustment. At present, imports of the three major grains - rice, wheat and corn - account for only 2.4% of domestic production, which is relatively low. In the future, China may still appropriately import some varieties that are in short supply domestically, but grain imports will not increase substantially, so the “China grain threat” theory does not exist. China will not purchase excessive grain on the international market, because China's strategy is to ensure basic self-sufficiency.

In addition, consideration must be given to the employment and income growth of Chinese farmers. China has 260 million farming households, most of which are smallholders, unlike the large farms in Europe and the United States. Even if the level of urbanization is higher in the future, only some farmers will move to cities, and a considerable proportion of farmers will still rely on agriculture for their livelihood. Therefore, grain imports also involve a question of balance with farmers' income growth, which is precisely the meaning contained in “moderate imports” as emphasized in China's 20-character national food security strategy.

Bi Meijia said that China has the confidence and the ability to solve the food problem of 1.3 billion people. China uses less than 1/10 of the world's arable land to produce 1/4 of the world's grain. Global grain output is currently about 2.4 billion tons, and China produces 600 million tons, feeding 1/5 of the world's population. In the future, China will continue to consolidate the agricultural foundation and firmly shore up the three pillars of grain production - policy support, scientific and technological support, and infrastructure support, especially by ensuring the red line for arable land, so that China's food security will have a solid foundation.