How Can Consecutive Years of Bumper Harvests Guarantee Food Security Under the New Normal?

Data recently released by the National Bureau of Statistics show that this year's grain output increased by 10.3 billion jin over the previous year. With this, China has achieved an “eleven consecutive years of growth” in grain output since the founding of New China.

Behind the consecutive years of bumper harvests lies the continuous improvement of China's level of agricultural modernization. But it must be clearly seen that, affected by many factors such as constraints on land and water resources, China still faces multiple challenges in achieving continued grain bumper harvests.

Improved agricultural modernization boosts consecutive years of grain bumper harvests

“At present, China's economic development has entered the new normal, and the economy is generally stable, but downward pressure remains relatively large. Consecutive years of grain bumper harvests have laid a solid foundation for the whole year's economy.” said Ye Xingqing, director of the Rural Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council.

Behind the consecutive years of grain bumper harvests is the leapfrog development of China's modern agriculture. The scenes of traditional agriculture with “oxen plowing and horses harrowing” and “cracking whips and calls,” and of farmers “facing the yellow earth with their backs to the sky,” have now undergone fundamental changes.

Data show that at present, China's comprehensive mechanization level for crop cultivation and harvesting exceeds 60%, nearly 30 percentage points higher than 10 years ago. Among this, the comprehensive mechanization rate for cultivation and harvesting of the three major grain crops of rice, wheat and corn all exceeds 75%. China's wheat production has basically achieved full-process mechanization. The levels of mechanized rice planting and harvesting have risen from 6% and 27% 10 years ago to 38% and 81% now, and the level of mechanized corn harvesting has risen from 2% to 55%.

Corresponding to the year-by-year increase in mechanization level, China's degree of large-scale agricultural operation is currently continuously improving. Data show that in recent years the increase in the proportion of contracted cultivated land transferred nationwide has expanded year by year. At present, the area of rural contracted cultivated land transferred in China has reached 380 million mu, accounting for 28.8% of the total contracted cultivated land area. On the basis of a 4.8 percentage point increase in the transfer proportion last year, it rose by another 2.8 percentage points in the first half of this year.

In addition, for agricultural bumper harvests, good seeds come first. As the leader of modern agricultural science and technology, China's seed industry has achieved rapid development in recent years. At present, the net assets of the top 50 seed enterprises nationwide are close to 20 billion yuan, a surge of 300% compared with 10 years ago.

Continued grain bumper harvests face multiple challenges

Although China's grain production has joyfully achieved an “eleven consecutive years of growth,” affected by many factors such as resource constraints and backward methods of increasing output, China still faces multiple challenges in achieving continued grain bumper harvests.

“If a large-scale severe natural disaster occurs during the critical period of grain growth, there may be a result of reduced or poor harvests.” said Li Guoxiang, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

According to reports, the constraints of China's cultivated land and water resources on grain production are continuously intensifying. Farmland facilities in some areas are aging. The intact rate of the backbone projects of large-scale irrigation districts nationwide is only 60%. Low- and medium-yield farmland accounts for about two-thirds of the cultivated land area, and about half of the country's farmland is “rain-fed land.” In addition, problems such as degradation of cultivated land quality and severe groundwater overexploitation are prominent.

“Compared with developed countries, China's grain production is still at the extensive production stage of relying on chemical fertilizers and pesticides and flood irrigation to increase output. This kind of output increase is unsustainable.” said Li Ji, a professor at China Agricultural University.

Data show that at present, China's average chemical fertilizer use per mu is 21.2 kg, 4.1 times the world average. Grain production still finds it difficult to shake off the obvious characteristics of “large farming, large water use and large fertilizer use.”

The extensive growth model relying on large inputs of chemical fertilizers easily causes soil hardening and leads to a decline in cultivated land quality. At present, the average organic matter content of China's cultivated land soil is only 1.8%, down 0.35 percentage points from the early 1990s. Even for the most fertile black soil in Northeast China, its organic matter content is only 2.9%, 1 percentage point lower than in the 1980s.

“China's grain output has increased for consecutive years, but various resource factors for grain production are already very tight, and the carrying pressure on the ecological environment is constantly increasing.” said Bi Meijia, chief economist and spokesperson of the Ministry of Agriculture.

Achieving “green output increase”: Chinese agriculture enters a new normal of improving quality and efficiency

Today's Chinese economy is moving from high-speed growth to a new normal of medium-to-low-speed growth and improved quality and efficiency. Experts point out that in the future China's grain production must also shift from simply focusing on output growth to paying more attention to improving grain production capacity and transforming the development model, achieving “green growth” of grain and ensuring food security under the new normal.

“In the future, attention must be paid to improving comprehensive grain production capacity.” Han Yijun, a professor at the College of Economics and Management of China Agricultural University, believes that in the future it is necessary to accelerate the transformation of the agricultural development model, from an extensive operation that mainly pursues output growth and competes over resources and consumption to intensive development that gives equal weight to quantity, quality and efficiency, focuses on improving competitiveness, and focuses on sustainability.

The reporter recently learned from the Ministry of Agriculture that China will carry out research on green output increase models, focus on achieving a sustainable national food security strategy, and strive to achieve “zero growth” in the use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides in grain and agricultural production by 2020, and work to raise land output rate, input utilization rate and labor productivity.

On China's vast land, a series of efforts to improve the agricultural ecological environment are underway: improving obstacle soils, soil testing and formulated fertilization, integrated water and fertilizer management, deep plowing and deep loosening……

“The green concept must run through the entire process of research on output increase models. In terms of technical paths, promote new varieties with high yield, high efficiency and multiple resistance, advance large-scale, standardized and mechanized production, advance the quality construction of cultivated land, and vigorously promote technologies for controlling fertilizer, controlling pesticides and controlling water to save costs and increase efficiency.” said Bi Meijia.