China's grain output is expected to increase again
"In 2014, China's grain production is expected to achieve another bumper harvest, realizing an 11th consecutive year of increase. Farmers' incomes are also expected to achieve an 11th consecutive year of increase." On November 21, at the 2nd China New Agriculture Industry Annual Conference and the National County-Level Agricultural Economy Summit Forum, Zhang Hongyu, Director of the Department of Rural Economy and Management of the Ministry of Agriculture, said as much.
Specifically, in the second half of this year, summer grain achieved a huge increase in output, and autumn grain is expected to see another bumper harvest. There should be no major suspense about another bumper harvest this year. This year, the growth rate of farmers' incomes continued to be higher than that of urban residents, exceeding 2.8% in the first three quarters. Barring accidents, the income gap between urban and rural areas is very likely to narrow to within 1:3.
The agricultural product import and export trade deficit may increase
This cannot conceal the challenges facing Chinese farmers. Against the backdrop of the new normal of domestic economic growth, namely slowing economic growth, and the globalization of the foreign economy, how can agricultural competitiveness be improved and the labor efficiency, output efficiency, and resource allocation efficiency of agriculture be raised? For example, the increase in imports. On the basis of 10 consecutive years, or even 11 consecutive years, of total grain output increases, the volume of agricultural product imports has continued to rise.
Official data from the Ministry of Agriculture show that in 2013, China's import and export trade of agricultural products totaled US$186.69 billion. Of this, exports were US$67.83 billion, imports were US$118.87 billion, and the trade deficit was US$51.04 billion. It is worth noting that all four figures showed a growth trend.
Specifically, from January to December, grain imports were 14.585 million tons, cotton 4.5 million tons, sugar 4.546 million tons, and soybean imports 63.375 million tons. Among grains, wheat imports showed an increasing trend. Imports of resource-based agricultural products have become a widespread trend.
Zhang Hongyu said that this year the agricultural product trade deficit is continuing to maintain positive growth and may exceed last year's. So what are the reasons for the imports? First, domestic demand for agricultural products is extremely strong; second, prices of raw materials abroad, including agricultural products, are sluggish. The cost of imports is far lower than domestic production.
Opportunities for modern agriculture
Despite the challenges, opportunities also exist. Because China is a populous country and a fast-growing major country, it faces two major opportunities in the production and trade of agricultural products. One is an industrial opportunity, and the other is a policy opportunity.
As for the former, compared with the past, the connotation and extension of modern agriculture have greatly expanded. Horizontally, the industrial characteristic that agriculture does not directly manifest as product production is obvious. In addition to agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fisheries, there are also sightseeing, tourism and leisure, ecological environment restoration, and cultural inheritance. Vertically, traditional agriculture runs from planting to harvesting and is only a single production link. But modern agriculture involves multiple links such as pre-production input of materials and post-production harvesting, processing, circulation, trade, and marketing.
"From this perspective, the biggest characteristic of agriculture is that it is in a seller's market. That is, however much is produced, that much is satisfied. This is determined by the country's resources and by the capacity of the production entities. This not only provides opportunities for agriculture for hundreds of millions of farming households to produce, but also attracts diverse agricultural operating entities," said Zhang Hongyu.
As for the latter, the new government has given a high degree of attention to agriculture. Corresponding measures have been given in areas such as cultivating new types of agricultural operating entities, agricultural subsidy policies, financial and insurance policies, agricultural land policies, and agricultural supervision, which have greatly raised the enthusiasm of producers. Not only farming households, but also new types of agricultural operating entities.
Repositioning modern agriculture
Since taking office, the new government has proposed the strategy of "synchronizing the four modernizations and coordinating development." However, the competitiveness of modern agriculture does not match that of modern industry. This requires repositioning modern agriculture. In 2013, the Central Rural Work Conference clarified the focus of food security work: ensure basic self-sufficiency in grains and absolute security of staple food.
To develop modern agriculture, there are two key points. First, deepen the reform of the rural land system; second, cultivate diversified agricultural operating entities.
For many years, land system reform has begun to enter deep waters. In order to develop modern agriculture, land transfer and appropriately scaled operations have become the rational choice of the current Chinese government. On November 20, the General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued in full the "Opinions on Guiding the Orderly Transfer of Rural Land Operating Rights to Develop Appropriately Scaled Agricultural Operations" (hereinafter referred to as the "Opinions").
The "Opinions" proposed four basic principles. First, adhere to collective ownership of rural land, stabilize farmers' contracting rights, and liberalize land operating rights; second, encourage innovation and support grassroots pilot trials; third, take farmers as the main body, let the market allocate resources, and have the government support and guide; fourth, adhere to appropriately scaled operations.
This became the programmatic document for the new government to promote land reform. On September 29, the "Opinions" were reviewed at the fifth meeting of the Central Leading Group for Comprehensively Deepening Reform and, after further revision and improvement according to the meeting discussions, were submitted for approval and implementation in accordance with procedures. Xi Jinping, head of the Central Leading Group for Comprehensively Deepening Reform, pointed out that at the current stage, deepening rural land system reform must consider both agriculture and farmers.
Zhang Hongyu said it is necessary to clarify the significance of the theoretical innovation of the "separation of three rights." After appropriately scaled operations are formed, it will help improve labor efficiency, especially the output efficiency of land. It not only solves the income problem of production entities, but also solves the country's food security problem and ensures the effective supply of agricultural products.
Industrial and commercial enterprises must coexist symbiotically with farmers' interests
As for agricultural operating entities, the reason for diversity is that in terms of ownership components they are diverse. The essential difference between modern agriculture and traditional agriculture also makes operating entities show a diversified trend, as well as special backgrounds, such as fitting the stages of economic and social development in different regions of China and fitting differences in agricultural resource endowments in different regions.
Regarding China's existing 260 million farming households, Zhang Hongyu said that they are the solid foundation for our agricultural production and the effective supply of agricultural products, and at no time can their opportunities for survival and development be ignored.
Of course, modern agriculture must do everything possible to raise farmers' incomes. Otherwise, it will not be sustainable. Zhang Hongyu said that whether before production, during production, or after production, whether researchers or new types of agricultural operating entities, industrial and commercial enterprises must form a symbiotic relationship with farmers.
"If it is a one-off deal, 'leave when you make money, run when you lose money,' then this enterprise will certainly not become big, strong, or long-lasting," Zhang Hongyu suggested. The second positioning of modern agriculture is to increase farmers' incomes. This is also in order to make agricultural enterprises bigger and stronger.