Report predicts world cereal production will hit a record high this year
Economic Daily, Geneva (Reporter Chen Jian) - The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations recently released its "Crop Prospects and Food Situation" report, which shows that thanks to favorable agricultural production conditions in Europe and a record corn harvest in the United States, world total cereal production in 2014 (including rice) is expected to rise 0.3% over 2013 to 2.532 billion tonnes, a record high.
According to this latest report, the European Union's cereal production in 2014 is forecast to be 5.6% higher than in 2013, and although the planted area has shrunk, the United States is also expected to achieve a record corn harvest. Therefore, the record world cereal harvest in 2014 will exceed the forecast for global cereal consumption in 2014-2015, pushing stocks up to their highest level since 2000, and raising the ratio of world cereal stocks to consumption to 25.2%, the highest level in 13 years.
However, the report also warns that due to civil unrest, severe weather and the Ebola outbreak, more than 30 countries will see their food security situation deteriorate, mainly in the Middle East and Africa. The Ebola outbreak has had an extremely severe impact on the agriculture and food sectors in West Africa, especially in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, because the outbreak began to spread at the time of crop planting and continued throughout the entire production cycle.
⟦NL> The report says regional conflicts have also severely affected food security. The internal conflict in Syria has hampered cereal production, leading to a very urgent food security situation. In Syria, about 6.8 million people, including refugees who have fled to neighboring countries, are facing severe food shortages. Due to abandoned land, scarce labor, damaged power stations and canals, and dry weather conditions, Syria's grain production in 2014 fell markedly. The situation in Iraq is also very severe, with internal conflict doubling the number of displaced people to 2.8 million.
In the Central African Republic, one third of the population needs emergency food assistance. It is estimated that the country's grain production this year, although higher than in 2013, is 58% below the average level. The report notes that since early October, in countries where violence has been escalating, one quarter of households have adopted negative coping strategies, including selling productive assets and slaughtering livestock. This year, agricultural product prices in the Central African Republic have soared by 70%.
The report says refugees in Sudan's Darfur region, northern Nigeria, the Central African Republic and Mali are putting enormous pressure on food supplies. In Chad, more than 550,000 people need food assistance. Although recent harvests and humanitarian aid have eased the situation, more than 6 million people in South Sudan, Sudan and Somalia need help. Food prices in these countries remain high, with sorghum prices in the areas most affected by conflict four times those in other areas.
The report also points out that drought has reduced grain production in Central America. Drought conditions in the region earlier this year cut corn production by about 9%, leaving 400,000 households in Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala in need of food assistance.