Deepening Understanding and Innovating Methods for Agricultural Product Market Regulation Urgently Needed
Practice shows that to promote the stable development of agricultural production and ensure the effective supply of important agricultural products, the most fundamental thing is to mobilize, protect and give full play to farmers' enthusiasm for production. From the actual situation of China's agricultural product market regulation, most of it consists of studying whatever problems arise in the market and whichever variety has problems, and a policy system formed under this background lacks overall coherence, forward-looking vision and internal organic connections. This is also the deep-seated reason for the continuous fluctuations in the agricultural product market in recent years.
Moreover, the level of agricultural product market regulation has an increasingly greater impact on the inflation expectations of the entire national economy. As a developing country, China has a relatively high Engel coefficient for household consumption, so food prices carry a high weight in the overall consumer price level. Once agricultural product prices rise sharply, this directly manifests as an increase in the consumer price index, which easily leads people to understand that rising agricultural product prices are the direct driver of inflation. Although rising agricultural product prices are only a manifestation of inflation rather than its cause, improving agricultural product market regulation and reducing severe fluctuations in the agricultural product market is self-evidently significant for supporting the healthy development of the entire national economy and managing inflation expectations well.
After many developed countries encountered a series of social problems caused by severe fluctuations in the market for agricultural products, especially fresh agricultural products, they carried out policy innovation, made historic strides in the construction of agricultural product market regulation mechanisms and legal systems, and these have become enduring tools for stabilizing the agricultural product market in recent years. In contrast, many fresh agricultural products in China are “produced naked” in the absence of market regulation, and there is simply no question of competing on the same stage with global agricultural products.
China's agricultural product market regulation should clarify several issues of understanding:
First, is it normal for agricultural product prices to generally trend upward? In the process of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects, per capita income levels will continue to rise significantly, and demand factors will of course continue to grow rigidly. At the same time, the scarcity of arable land and water resources will become further apparent, and the demographic dividend is also gradually weakening. This will inevitably push up the cost of agricultural production, thereby forming hard support for the trend of agricultural product prices. Therefore, from a long-term trend perspective, an overall rise in agricultural product prices is inevitable and normal.
Second, should regulation be applied whenever agricultural product prices fluctuate?
The supply-demand relationship and market performance of agricultural products are affected by multiple factors such as seasons, climate and cycles. But there is a tendency that tries to ignore the particularity of agricultural products, which inevitably affects the regulatory objectives and policy design itself. To reduce fluctuations, it is necessary to rely on measures such as improving agricultural production conditions and improving storage and preservation facilities and technology, and this is a long-term process. Therefore, agricultural product market regulation at the current stage is inevitably “limited” rather than “stepping in” whenever there is fluctuation. Otherwise, it will inevitably enter the dead end of an “omnipotent government” that interferes with the normal operation of the market.
Third, is China's agricultural product price level high or low?
We are accustomed to making comparisons in two respects: first, comparison with previous absolute price levels, and second, comparison with the world's major agricultural product exporting countries. It is easy to conclude that China's agricultural product prices have risen substantially. On the issue of agricultural product market regulation, at least three factors should be considered: first, comparison with agricultural production costs. In recent years, the increase in prices at which farmers sell agricultural products has been far lower than the increase in agricultural production costs. Second, comparison with urban residents' income levels. Third, comparison with countries or regions with similar production and operation methods. In fact, the price levels of many agricultural products in Japan and South Korea are about 6 to 10 times those in China.
Fourth, does China's agricultural product supply-demand relationship only have two situations: shortage and balance?
China has passed the era of vegetable and fruit shortages, but if efforts to expand international markets are not increased in tandem and the supply-demand relationship is not balanced overall, periodic, regional and structural surpluses will naturally appear. Only when we no longer avoid the word “surplus” and face “the troubles of abundance” directly can agricultural product market regulation possibly stand at a new starting point.
Finally, how should the agricultural product price level balance the interests of both farmers and urban residents?
At the current stage, measuring the agricultural product price level essentially treats agricultural product prices as a basic tool for balancing the interests of farmers and urban residents. Internationally, there is not excessive intervention in rising agricultural product prices. Instead, methods such as raising the minimum income guarantee line, increasing retirement and pension wages, issuing price-rise subsidies and establishing food voucher programs are adopted to reduce the impact of excessively rapid increases in agricultural product prices on the lives of low-income groups.
In summary, China's agricultural product market regulation is at a critical period. It should actively push agricultural product market regulation forward from post-event regulation to well-prepared advance plans, expand regulated varieties from grain to fruits and vegetables, extend the regulatory focus from total quantity balance to structural balance, and shift the regulatory baseline from excessively rapid price increases to also taking into account excessive price declines, so as to raise China's agricultural product market regulation to a new level.
First, adhere to the “three-category method” in agricultural product market regulation and promptly establish a catalog system for the market regulation of fresh agricultural products.
From a global perspective, all countries treat grain, especially staple food grains, as the top priority for policy support and regulation. For fresh agricultural products such as vegetables and fruits, they have almost unanimously established key varieties for regulation one after another. China's agricultural products can be divided into three major categories: first, grains, mainly including wheat, rice and corn, for which a set of market regulation methods centered on tariffs, quotas, minimum purchase prices and temporary storage has already been established. Second, important agricultural products with a high degree of dependence on foreign trade. Among them, although cotton imports are relatively large, they are basically both ends outside, with large imports and large exports; the foreign trade dependence of the soybean market exceeds 60%, and there is only a single 3% tariff policy, lacking regulatory means. The key is how to grasp the timing, rhythm and method of imports and give play to a positive “major country effect” to meet domestic demand. Third, fresh agricultural products. The market operation and price level of such products mainly depend on domestic supply-demand relationships, and this is also currently a weak link in China's agricultural product market regulation. Therefore, the urgent task at the current stage is to research and establish a catalog system for the market regulation of vegetables and fruits as soon as possible, clearly determine key varieties for regulation respectively according to the principle of “doing some things and not doing others,” and determine the main production areas for regulation according to advantageous regional layout, so as to lock in the key varieties and regions for agricultural product market regulation.
Second, advance the construction of laws and regulations for agricultural product market regulation and establish a fresh agricultural product market adjustment fund as soon as possible.
On the one hand, elevate effective policies such as minimum purchase prices and temporary storage for grain and other important agricultural products to the legal level; on the other hand, establish a legal basis and institutional framework for properly carrying out market regulation of fresh agricultural products such as vegetables and fruits. At the same time, study and innovate working ideas and mechanisms, raise funds through multiple channels such as fiscal support, social capital and producer organizations, and establish a price adjustment fund as soon as possible.
Third, study and formulate agricultural product marketing and promotion strategies, and explore circulation models suited to China's characteristics.
Carefully study and scientifically plan the target markets for agricultural products, especially specialty agricultural products, nationwide and in main production areas, and scientifically calculate target market capacity. Taking relevant factors into comprehensive consideration and relying on specialized farmers' cooperative organizations, guide farmers in making scientific production and operation decisions and reasonably arranging production scale. This is the basic prerequisite for good production-sales linkage and market regulation. At the same time, with reference to circulation models in Japan, South Korea and elsewhere, take the agricultural product wholesale market as the core and accelerate support for circulation models that help improve circulation efficiency and reduce circulation costs.