What new economic growth points will agricultural modernization bring
Under the new normal, vigorously developing agricultural modernization will provide new impetus for China's stable economic growth. And agricultural industrialization is the foundation and support of agricultural modernization.
In recent years, China's agriculture has achieved good results. Grain production has achieved an unparalleled “eleven consecutive increases”, and farmers' incomes have achieved “eleven consecutive years of rapid growth”. This year, the growth rate of farmers' incomes will exceed the growth rates of GDP and urban residents' incomes for the 5th consecutive year, and the urban-rural income ratio is expected to narrow to within 3:1. However, behind the splendid high-yield data lie hidden concerns.
While grain harvests have been continuous, imports have also surged. In 2013, China's net imports of the four major products - grain, cotton, oilseeds and sugar - were equivalent to the output of more than 800 million mu of cultivated land, already nearly half of China's total cultivated land. Correspondingly, the inversion between domestic and external agricultural product prices has become increasingly serious. In September this year, domestic prices of rice, corn, soybeans and cotton were respectively 34.2%, 58.1%, 35.9% and 16.9% per ton higher than the after-tax landed prices at major ports. Second, various resource factors for sustainable development are already stretched tight. Agricultural production faces an annual water shortage of 30 billion cubic meters, the exceedance rate of pollutant points in cultivated soil nationwide has reached 19.4%, and the utilization rates of chemical fertilizers, pesticides and effective treatment of livestock and poultry manure are only 33%, 35% and 42% respectively. Medium- and low-yield fields still account for 2/3 of total cultivated land……
⟦NL> The situation of agriculture depending on the weather has not fundamentally changed. Land output rate, resource utilization rate and labor productivity are low, and the progress of intensification and sustainable development is slow. Day by day and year by year, all kinds of pressure accumulate, causing modern agricultural development to face “unprecedented” challenges.
The just-concluded Central Rural Work Conference made vigorously developing agricultural industrialization the first of five tasks for advancing agricultural modernization. The conference proposed that, on the basis of stabilizing grain production, agricultural structural adjustment should be actively promoted; modern industrial organization methods such as industrial chains and value chains should be introduced into agriculture to promote the integrated interaction of the primary, secondary and tertiary industries. The conference also stated that making the agricultural industry bigger and stronger can form many new industries, new business forms and new models, and cultivate new economic growth points.
Modern agriculture “connecting the second and third industries” and extending the industrial chain of modern agriculture mean making the integration of the three industries a new growth pole driving the development of China's agriculture and rural economy. The combined effect of multiple forces, including market demand, market competition, industrial transformation and upgrading, industrial chain extension and penetration of related industries, scientific and technological progress, and agricultural policy, is the dynamic mechanism for forming new agricultural business forms.
The conference proposed that, on the basis of stabilizing grain production, agricultural structural adjustment should be actively promoted, relying on scientific and technological support, shifting from “production orientation” to “consumption orientation”, and moving from simply finding solutions on cultivated land to addressing the entire national land and resources, building an advantageous regional layout and specialized production pattern, and accelerating the integration of agriculture and animal husbandry.
Shifting from “production orientation” to “consumption orientation” emphasizes the conceptual direction of agricultural industrialization. This means aiming at market demand, respecting consumers' choices, and through standardized production, enterprise-based operation and market-oriented operation, making the supply of agricultural products better adapt to market demand, so that ecological, healthy and safe food reaches consumers' dining tables through processing and distribution.
Moving from simply finding solutions on cultivated land to addressing the entire national land and resources both elevates the macro perspective of agricultural industrialization and emphasizes agricultural layout beyond cultivated land.
The Central Rural Work Conference pointed out that the consumption potential of farmers, the largest group, should be tapped, which can better give play to the foundational role of consumption; agriculture and rural infrastructure and public services are backward, and there is huge demand for new investment, which can better give play to the key role of investment. Calculated this way, two of the three drivers of the economy are accounted for, so why worry that new growth points for China's economy cannot be found in rural areas?