Staple grain imports fall while sorghum and barley rise: changes in import structure prompt reflection
Affected by factors such as the inversion of domestic and international prices and demand pull, China's grain (cereal) imports in 2014 continued to maintain rapid growth, with imports reaching 19.516 million tons, up 33.8% year on year, and net imports of 18.747 million tons, up 40% year on year. At the same time, the structure of grain imports showed two new features: a decline in total imports of the three major staple grains and a sharp increase in imports of corn substitutes, which warrant tracking and analysis.
Staple grains fall while sorghum and barley rise: changes in import structure prompt reflection
Total imports of the three major staple grains fell significantly, and the positive role of import and export regulation should continue to be brought into play. In 2014, total imports of the three major staple grains - wheat, rice and corn - were 8.184 million tons, down 26.1% year on year. After remaining above 11 million tons for two consecutive years, this marked a sharp decline, easing to some extent the contradiction of high domestic grain inventories and relatively large phased supply pressure.
By variety, wheat imports were 3.004 million tons, down 45.7% year on year; corn imports were 2.599 million tons, down 20.4% year on year; rice imports were 2.579 million tons, up 13.6% year on year, but the growth rate fell back somewhat compared with 2011-2012.
Experts analyzed that, given that domestic prices were significantly higher than the after-tax landed import price, the decline in total imports of the three major staple grains was partly due to China's grain output achieving an "eleventh consecutive increase" and improved quality, but more importantly it was the result of import and export regulation, especially effective management of import quotas. This shows that China's grain import and export regulation measures still have some room for maneuver. Under the current situation of slowing economic growth and relatively weak grain demand in China, we should continue to adhere to the scope allowed by WTO rules, take the initiative in playing the trade regulation card, optimize the use of tools such as quota management, and strive for valuable time and space for stabilizing grain and increasing income, adjusting structure, improving quality and efficiency, and transforming the development model, so as to ensure "basic self-sufficiency in grains and absolute security of staple food" under the new normal.
Although total imports of the three major staple grains decreased in 2014, imports of corn substitutes such as sorghum and barley expanded severalfold, leading to an increase in total cereal imports and an obvious change in structure. Among them, barley imports were 5.413 million tons, up 131.8% year on year, and sorghum imports were 5.776 million tons, up 4.4 times year on year.
This new change - the rapid increase in corn substitutes - shows that China's grain import and export management is systemic work. Without supporting measures, it is inevitably like "pressing down one gourd only to have another pop up." Therefore, for corn, which has a relatively long industrial chain, while studying import regulation measures for substitutes, we should speed up the improvement of price and market regulation mechanisms. On the premise of ensuring that "selling grain is not difficult" and stabilizing farmers' grain-growing returns, we should form a reasonable price relationship between domestic corn and substitutes, promote corn processing and consumption, and prevent corn's market space from being squeezed out.