New Urbanization Through the Lens of Spring Festival Travel Big Data: New Challenges and New Opportunities
The Spring Festival travel rush is a social phenomenon unique to China's urbanization process, and it is also one of the manifestations of the severe imbalance in China's economic development levels between the east and the west.
Escaping “Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou” is easier said than done
According to Baidu Migration big data, taking 17:00 on the 25th (the seventh day of the first lunar month) as an example, the top ten hottest cities for in-migration were Beijing (11.04%), Shanghai (7.91%), Shenzhen, Dongguan, Tianjin, Guangzhou, Chongqing, Hangzhou, Nanjing, and Foshan.
At 17:00 on the 25th, the ranking of source provinces for in-migration to Beijing was Hebei (45.78%), Shandong (9.69%), Henan, Shanxi, Liaoning, Tianjin, Inner Mongolia, Anhui, Heilongjiang, and Hubei. The ranking of source provinces for in-migration to Shanghai was Jiangsu (29.47%), Anhui (21.79%), Zhejiang, Henan, Jiangxi, Shandong, Hubei, Hunan, Fujian, and Sichuan. The top ten hottest migration routes were Dezhou→Tianjin, Lu'an→Shanghai, Fuyang→Shanghai, Chaohu→Shanghai, Dezhou→Beijing, Chuzhou→Shanghai, Bengbu→Shanghai, Zhoukou→Beijing, Datong→Beijing, and Huanggang→Shenzhen.
It can be seen that Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan have become the population hinterland of the Beijing-Tianjin region, Anhui has become the population hinterland of Shanghai, and Hunan and Hubei have become the population hinterland of the Pearl River Delta. The pattern of the three major urban agglomerations is basically consistent with people's impressions. The developed regions of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Pearl River Delta remain the hot spots for out-migration and in-migration during the Spring Festival.
Before the Spring Festival, data at 12:00 on the 16th (the 28th day of the twelfth lunar month) showed that the top ten hottest cities for out-migration were Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Dongguan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Tianjin, Foshan, Chongqing, and Ningbo.
Before the Spring Festival, people migrated from large cities to small and medium-sized cities; after the Spring Festival, people migrated from small and medium-sized cities to large cities. During the Spring Festival, major cities staged the “empty city ruse” one after another, while ordinarily quiet rural areas welcomed a rare bustle. The migration in and out of large cities by hundreds of millions of people reflects the current state of “semi-urbanization” in our country. The word “semi” is even more vividly embodied in migrant workers: the job that sustains their livelihood is in the city, while the foundation of their life depends on the countryside; half of the family members (husband, wife) are in the city, while the other half (elderly people, underage children) are in the countryside; social insurance is in the city, while medical care and pension are in the countryside.
From this it can be seen that although a large number of migrant workers have achieved geographical relocation and occupational conversion, they have not yet achieved a change in identity and status. Hundreds of millions of people living in cities and towns do not have urban household registration or enjoy the treatment of urban residents, and these non-registered population have become the main force of Spring Festival travel passenger flow.
Short-distance work has become fashionable
On the Baidu Migration real-time map, each person's movement is clearly reflected in dense lines.
It is worth noting that the short lines connecting western cities such as Chongqing, Xianyang, Chengdu, and Guiyang have increased a lot. Taking Chongqing as an example, migration from Luzhou, Zigong, Nanchong, Suining, Neijiang, Ziyang, and other places to Chongqing is relatively dense; looking at Xi'an, the connecting lines between Xianyang, Shangluo, Weinan, Baoji, and other places and Xi'an are very dense, reflecting relatively frequent round trips to Xi'an.
Xu Chengguang, spokesperson for the Ministry of Transport, analyzed that this year's Spring Festival saw a clear increase in short- and medium-distance passenger flow. As the country accelerates the advancement of industrial structural adjustment and the sustained implementation of the strategy for coordinated regional economic development, the economic development speed of inland provinces has been continuously accelerating, their attractiveness for employment has clearly improved, migrant workers taking jobs nearby has become increasingly common, and the migrant worker passenger flow between inland cities and neighboring areas has grown noticeably.
Data from the Baidu Migration map at 17:00 on the 25th shows that among the destination provinces for out-migration from Hunan, Guangdong ranked first with a share as high as 61.58%. For Henan, a major population province, Jiangsu, Beijing, and Anhui became the three destination provinces with the most people from Henan. For Anhui, the number of people migrating to Jiangsu and Shanghai was close to 60% of all out-migrants from Anhui. It can thus be seen that for these major labor-exporting provinces, working nearby has become a major trend.
The “Alipay User Spring Festival Travel Report” released by Alipay last year also confirmed this feature: “the peacock no longer flies only to the southeast”; short-distance migration for work has become fashionable. After integrating national big data, this report concluded that among Alipay users living away from home, those 200~800 kilometers from home were the most concentrated. This shows that in recent years, as coastal industries have shifted to the central and western regions in a gradient manner and multiple regional economic centers in the eastern, central, and western regions have risen, the trend of the new generation of out-migrants seeking work nearby has begun to emerge.
Relevant experts also proposed that, in addition to the three major urban agglomerations that have already formed, there should be more urban agglomerations in central and western China. In the central region there is the Hunan-Hubei-Jiangxi-Anhui “Central Triangle”, and in the west there is the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration. This will change China's economic map. According to the national deployment for new urbanization, the focus should be on solving the problem of the “three 100 million people”: promoting the settlement in cities and towns of about 100 million people transferred from agriculture, renovating the urban shantytowns and urban villages where about 100 million people live, and guiding about 100 million people to urbanize nearby in the central and western regions. Nearby employment will undoubtedly become an important factor in alleviating the difficulty of Spring Festival travel.
Reverse migration reflects new demand
Returning to one's hometown during the Spring Festival to reunite with parents is a traditional custom. However, with the increase in employment away from home, cross-regional marriage, and families with both spouses being only children, many elderly people came from their hometowns during the Spring Festival to the cities where their children work and settle to celebrate the New Year. “Reverse migration” has brought new demand. Xu Tao, whose hometown is in Anhui, settled in Beijing 5 years ago. During this year's New Year's Day holiday, he took the opportunity to bring his parents from his hometown to Beijing so the whole family could celebrate the New Year together in Beijing. “It happens to be the New Year holiday, and I can also accompany my parents to look around Beijing properly,” Xu Tao said.
Real-time data from Baidu Migration at 12:00 on the 17th (the 29th day of the twelfth lunar month) shows that among the ten cities people migrated from Shijiazhuang to, Beijing ranked first with a share of 12.99%, 8.59 percentage points higher than the second place. Hebei is adjacent to Beijing, and among the people heading to Beijing before the Spring Festival, there was no shortage of fathers and mothers making the “reverse” trip to Beijing.
In addition, more and more people chose to leave their hometowns and travel during the Spring Festival, reflecting a new direction in Spring Festival population migration. Data from Baidu Migration at 12:00 on the 19th (the first day of the first lunar month) shows that among the top ten source cities for migration to Sanya, the three major northeastern cities of Harbin, Changchun, and Shenyang were prominently listed, and Beijing even ranked first. At the same time, among the top ten cities for migration to Harbin, Guangzhou was included.
During the Spring Festival travel rush, the largest passenger flow is the “migrant worker flow.” According to forecasts by the National Development and Reform Commission, during the 2015 Spring Festival travel rush, among the 260 million migrant workers, the number of migrant workers moving across provinces will reach 160 million. Relevant experts pointed out that better advancing new urbanization and accelerating the adjustment of regional structure and industrial structure are undoubtedly the key to solving the “difficulty of Spring Festival travel.”