Transform the agricultural development model and accelerate the process of agricultural modernization

The report of the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly stated that we must adhere to the path of new-style industrialization, informatization, urbanization and agricultural modernization with Chinese characteristics, and promote the synchronized development of industrialization, informatization, urbanization and agricultural modernization. Since 2013, for 3 consecutive years the No. 1 Central Document has emphasized the need to accelerate the development of modern agriculture and advance agricultural modernization. This article mainly conducts a preliminary analysis and discussion around questions such as why we should accelerate the advancement of agricultural modernization, how to advance agricultural modernization, and what measures should be taken to advance agricultural modernization.

Accelerating the advancement of agricultural modernization is a major task of reality and history

Agricultural modernization is the fundamental direction of our country's agricultural development. Since the reform and opening up, and especially since entering the new century, our country's modern agriculture construction has achieved considerable development, and the level of agricultural modernization has risen markedly. At present, our country is in a critical period of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects and accelerating modernization. Accelerating the development of modern agriculture and advancing agricultural modernization construction is a major task of reality and history.

First, from the perspective of the basic requirements of our country's modernization construction, there is an urgent need to accelerate the advancement of agricultural modernization. Because it is greatly affected by natural conditions and also requires the introduction of modern factors from outside, agricultural modernization has more constraining factors and a more complex process, and is a “key variable” in modernization construction, and to a certain extent also a “slow variable.” Looking around today's world, most developed countries are countries with a relatively high level of agricultural modernization, while among those countries with backward agriculture and impoverished farmers, not one can be counted as a modernized country. From the current situation of our country, industrialization has entered the middle-to-late stage, urbanization is developing rapidly, and informatization is accelerating its integration with industrialization and urbanization. Comparatively speaking, agricultural modernization has become a prominent “short plank” in our country's modernization construction. The report of the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China put forward the development strategy of “synchronization of the four modernizations.” The sooner this short plank of agricultural modernization is filled, the better; otherwise it will hold back the entire modernization effort.

Second, from the perspective of promoting stable growth of our country's economy, there is an urgent need to accelerate the advancement of agricultural modernization. At present, our country's economic development has entered a new normal, and is shifting from high-speed growth to medium-to-high-speed growth. Downward pressure on the economy is increasing, and hidden risks are gradually emerging. How, against the background of slowing economic growth, to continue strengthening the foundational position of agriculture, accelerate the pace of new rural construction, and promote sustained and relatively rapid increases in farmers' incomes, so as to provide strong support for the sustained and healthy development of our country's economy and society, is a major challenge we must address, and also a major task in accelerating the advancement of agricultural modernization. To promote stable growth of our country's economy, we must first maintain stable agricultural development and ensure the effective supply of agricultural products. As long as agriculture and employment can remain stable, even if the economic growth rate is somewhat lower within a reasonable range, no major problems will arise. It can be seen that to adapt to the new normal of our country's economic development and achieve stable economic growth, we must accelerate the development of modern agriculture and advance agricultural modernization.

Third, from the perspective of promoting the long-term sustainable development of our country's agriculture, there is an urgent need to accelerate the advancement of agricultural modernization. At present, domestic agricultural production costs are in an “upward channel,” and the “floor” is gradually being raised; the prices of major domestic agricultural products have already exceeded import prices, and further price increases have encountered a “ceiling.” How, under the “double squeeze” of costs and prices, to innovate agricultural support and protection policies and improve the market competitiveness of agriculture is a major test that our country's modern agricultural development must face. Our country's agricultural resource endowment is inherently insufficient, with per capita arable land and freshwater resources respectively only 1/3 and 1/4 of the world average; the ecological environment is severely damaged, and carrying capacity is getting closer and closer to its limit, while the intensity of resource development and utilization is too great and the string is being pulled tighter and tighter. How, under the “double constraint” of resources and the environment, to ensure the effective supply of agricultural products and food quality and safety, and enhance the capacity for sustainable agricultural development, is a major issue that our country's agricultural development must solve. To resolve these contradictions and problems, we must accelerate the development of modern agriculture and advance agricultural modernization.

The key to advancing agricultural modernization is to transform the agricultural development model

As our country's economy enters a new normal, reform enters deep-water areas, and economic and social development enters a new stage, the environmental conditions and internal drivers of agricultural development are undergoing profound changes, and the requirement to rely on transforming the agricultural development model to advance agricultural modernization has become more urgent.

First, to respond to the many challenges facing our country's agricultural development, we must accelerate the transformation of the agricultural development model. In recent years, the pace of our country's agricultural modernization has accelerated, but various risks and structural contradictions have also been accumulating and gathering. First, the constraints of relatively tight agricultural resources and deteriorating agricultural environment have become increasingly prominent. On the one hand, the contradiction of too many people, too little land and scarce water has become increasingly prominent, and the resource constraints on agricultural development have further strengthened; on the other hand, problems such as agricultural non-point source pollution, declining arable land quality, and groundwater overexploitation have become increasingly prominent. Especially after the problem of food and clothing was solved, the public's requirements for the ecological environment and the quality and safety of agricultural products have further increased, and there is an urgent need to accelerate the transformation of the agricultural development model. Second, the challenge of changes in the employment structure of the rural labor force has become increasingly prominent. With the massive transfer of rural labor for employment, the quality of the agricultural labor force has structurally declined, and the problems of part-time farming, aging farmers, and hollowed-out rural areas are prominent. “Who will farm the land” and “how to farm the land” have become major issues that urgently need to be solved. Third, the problem of structural imbalance in agricultural production has become increasingly prominent. Regional layout does not match resource endowment conditions, and the north-to-south grain transport and south-to-north water diversion coexist; the structure of grain, economic crops and feed is not entirely reasonable, and increases in the inventories of some agricultural products coexist with increases in imports of some agricultural products; the integration of planting and breeding is not close enough, and declining soil fertility coexists with the failure to effectively utilize manure from the breeding industry. Fourth, the contradiction between the low comparative efficiency of agriculture and the inversion of domestic and international agricultural product prices has become increasingly prominent. On the one hand, domestic agricultural production costs continue to rise, and agricultural product prices remain low, causing the comparative efficiency of agriculture to continue to decline; on the other hand, international market prices of bulk agricultural products have fallen, generally below the prices of similar domestic products, causing imports to continue to increase. The above contradictions and problems may not all be temporary phenomena appearing in the short term; they all carry obvious stage-related characteristics. To resolve the above contradictions and problems, we must accelerate the transformation of the agricultural development model.

Second, to improve the quality and efficiency of agricultural development, there is an urgent need to accelerate the transformation of the agricultural development model. In recent years, although our country's agriculture has maintained a good momentum of increasing grain output and incomes, contradictions in aspects such as quantity and quality, total volume and structure, input and output, cost and benefit, production and environment, and the present and the long term have also become increasingly prominent. Overall, the model of our country's agricultural development is still one in which tradition and modernity coexist. First, although agricultural technical facilities and equipment conditions have gradually improved, the problems of underdeveloped “capillaries” in supporting canal systems for farmland water conservancy, the “last kilometer” of agricultural science and technology extension not being in place, and the low utilization rate of agricultural inputs have not yet been fundamentally solved; second, although new-type operating entities have developed relatively quickly, small-scale operations still account for the majority, limiting the improvement of agricultural labor productivity; third, although the agricultural product market system has initially taken shape, farmers in many places still plant and breed according to habit, by feel, and by imitation, making it difficult to escape the strange cycle of “more when there is more, less when there is less”; fourth, although our country is a major producer in planting and breeding, the comparative advantages of agricultural regions have not yet been fully brought into play, and the industrial chains of agricultural production, processing, circulation and consumption are disconnected, so the market competitiveness of agriculture is not strong. Therefore, only by accelerating the transformation of the agricultural development model can we improve the industrial quality, development quality and operating efficiency of agriculture, and only then can agriculture become an industry with prospects and attractiveness.

Third, accelerating the transformation of the agricultural development model also faces rare opportunities and favorable conditions. First, our country's current supply of major agricultural products is sufficient, which provides a guarantee for accelerating the transformation of the agricultural development model. After consecutive years of bumper harvests in our country's agriculture, inventories of major agricultural products are ample, and some products have reached historical highs. The slowdown in economic growth has somewhat weakened the growth in demand for agricultural product exports, consumption and processing. The pressure to maintain agricultural production volume has been somewhat eased, opening a time window for promoting the transformation of agricultural development from mainly pursuing output and quantity to focusing on quantity, quality, efficiency, ecology and safety together. Second, the full implementation of the new national food security strategy has left room for accelerating the transformation of the agricultural development model. Ensuring basic self-sufficiency in grains and absolute security of staple rations is the basic goal of the national food security strategy under the new situation. The transformation of agricultural production from safeguarding everything and all products in the past to safeguarding key products and staple rations provides a more relaxed policy environment and resource space for further advancing agricultural structural adjustment. Third, the upgrading and transformation of residents' agricultural product consumption structure has added momentum to accelerating the transformation of the agricultural development model. Our country has now entered a stage of accelerated upgrading and transformation of the food consumption structure. People not only want to eat their fill and eat well, but also want to eat safely, nutritiously and healthily, which provides broad market space for the production of high-quality, safe and ecological agricultural products, and provides strong momentum for improving the quality of agricultural products and the level of food safety. Fourth, the sufficient supply in the international agricultural product market provides conditions for accelerating the transformation of the agricultural development model. At present, the overall supply and demand situation in the global grain market is one in which production exceeds demand, and the inventory-to-consumption ratios of bulk agricultural products are all at historical highs, providing realistic possibility and operational space for better coordinating and utilizing both domestic and international resources and both domestic and international markets.