Why has the "eleventh consecutive increase" in grain output sparked debate?

“China's grain output has achieved an 'eleventh consecutive increase', and a relative oversupply has emerged. This year's government work report proposed that grain output should be stabilized at over 1.1 trillion jin, a reduction from last year's actual output. This is a rare opportunity for adjusting the agricultural structure, carrying out farmland improvement and letting the land rest and recuperate.” said Zheng Hui, a member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and president of the Agricultural Development Bank of China.

In 2014, China's total grain output reached 1.21 trillion jin, and per capita grain availability was nearly 900 jin, both hitting record highs.

Facing the “eleventh consecutive increase”, Zheng Hui nevertheless expressed some concerns:

Since 2011, China's grain production has exceeded consumption year after year. In particular, for crops subject to state regulation, such as rice, wheat and corn, the annual surplus has been more than 100 billion jin, clearly exceeding demand.

“Moreover, among this grain, there is a lot of ordinary low-quality grain and little high-quality indica rice and wheat. The structure is unbalanced, and it still takes up a large amount of storage. No matter how good the rice or wheat is, after 3 years in storage no one will eat it. The same goes for cotton: every year in storage lowers it by one grade.” Zheng Hui said that this “surplus” grain consumes a large amount of manpower, land, funds and resources. In addition, the state's policy of market-supporting purchases has increased the fiscal burden. It has also caused a price inversion between domestic and foreign grain, leading to an increase in the proportion of grain-processing enterprises operating at a loss.

“We want to 'keep our rice bowl firmly in our own hands', but that does not mean the higher the grain output the better. There is no need to emphasize grain 'consecutive increases' too much; as long as we achieve 'consecutive bumper harvests', that is good enough.” Zheng Hui said.

Regarding Zheng Hui's views, Chen Zhangliang, a member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and vice chairman of the China Association for Science and Technology, immediately voiced a different opinion:

“The problems you mention are all facts. But from a historical perspective, whenever there is a bumper grain harvest, as long as we relax the string of grain production even slightly, grain output will go downhill. The problem now is not that there is too much grain, but that it is too expensive. Everyone now knows that imported grain is cheaper than domestically produced grain. But if we did not have so much grain in our hands, I do not believe imported grain would still be so cheap!”

Chen Zhangliang believes that it is appropriate for the state to spend some money on growing, purchasing and storing grain. He also used his experience working in Guangxi several years ago as an example.

“One year Guangdong was short of grain, and it happened to coincide with Thailand and other countries not exporting grain. The relevant department told Guangxi to urgently allocate grain to Guangdong. But when I checked, Guangxi had no surplus grain either, and in the end grain was allocated from the northeast.” Chen Zhangliang said, “Once there is a problem with grain, it is a big problem.”

In response to the insufficient investment in science and technology for China's grain production, Chen Zhangliang suggested strengthening the capacity of rural grassroots science and technology extension stations to help and guide farmers in growing grain well.

“Now most young people in rural areas have gone to cities to work, and those left behind do not have a high level of knowledge. When I went to rural areas for research, I found that at sowing time, with all kinds of colorful rice seeds displayed on the counter of the supply store, farmers did not know what was suitable to buy. If agricultural technicians could give them some guidance, showing what kind of seeds are suitable for this place and how much fertilizer to use, farmers would be much more adept at growing grain.” Chen Zhangliang said.

Seeing the two of them “arguing”, Niu Dun, a member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and former vice minister of agriculture, took over and said that from a global perspective, insufficient supply of grain relative to demand is still the basic situation, and with the impact of factors such as climate change, grain production must not be taken lightly. Even the current per capita availability of more than 400 kg is not high compared with developed countries.

“Relying on imported grain or farming abroad cannot solve China's grain problem. The key is still to keep our rice bowl firmly in our own hands.” Niu Dun said.