Northeast corn sales progress exceeds 80%, North China exceeds 50%

As of February 25, various grain enterprises in 11 major corn-producing regions including Hebei and Heilongjiang had cumulatively purchased 107.28 million tons of newly harvested corn, an increase of 50,000 tons from before the holiday and an increase of 14.84 million tons from the same period last year. As of the end of February, it is estimated that the overall corn sales progress in the Northeast region has reached 86%, of which Liaoning is about 90%, flat compared with last year; Heilongjiang is slightly over 90%, 15 percentage points faster than last year; Inner Mongolia is 70%, 10 percentage points faster than last year; Jilin is 80%, flat compared with last year. Farmers do not have much grain left, and the market generally expects corn prices to rise after the holiday.

Judging from the current situation of farmers' remaining grain and traders' inventories, the remaining corn volume in the Northeast region is estimated at around 20 million tons. Considering that some farmers will keep grain for their own use and that the quantity of later temporary state reserves will continue to grow, the effective grain supply may be less than 10 million tons, and it is expected to supply the Northeast market at most until April. Even if auctions begin in May, considering that the auction cycle is nearly 1 month, the tight grain supply in April-May will become prominent, and corn prices in the Northeast region are expected to have strong upward momentum in April-May.

As of the end of February, it is estimated that the overall grain sales progress in North China exceeds 50%, of which the purchasing progress in Hebei is estimated to reach 56%, more than 10 percentage points faster than the same period last year; the purchasing progress in Shandong is estimated to reach 55%, about 5 percentage points faster than the same period last year; the purchasing progress in Henan is estimated at 50%, basically flat compared with last year.

⟦NL> The price increase in North China after the holiday was mainly because farmers' grain sales had not yet fully resumed. As the peak grain-selling period for farmers arrives after the Lantern Festival, corn market supply is expected to increase, and the room for corn price increases in North China will be limited in the short term. However, as grain supply in the Northeast producing areas bottoms out, it will drive corn prices in North China upward, and corn prices in North China are expected to still have strong upward momentum after April

According to market participants, traders and farmers do not have much grain left, and the amount of grain circulating in the market is relatively small. Current wheat purchasing is relatively quiet, and as flour milling enterprises resume operations, buying and selling are expected to gradually become more active. Monitoring shows that the wheat purchasing price of flour milling enterprises in Xinxiang, Henan, is 2,560 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last week; the wheat purchasing price in Zhengzhou, Henan, is 2,550 yuan/ton, and the wheat purchasing price in Zhoukou, Henan, is 2,540 yuan/ton, both flat compared with last week.