China no longer pursues consecutive grain output increases, accelerates agricultural transformation and upgrading
On March 9, the second plenary meeting of the third session of the 12th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference was held in the Great Hall of the People. Qian Keming, a member of the CPPCC and Chief Economist of the Ministry of Agriculture, delivered a speech titled "Transforming the Mode and Adjusting the Structure to Accelerate the Development of Modern Agriculture in the “13th Five-Year Plan”."
Qian Keming said that thanks to “good policies, hard work, and favorable weather,” China's grain output increased for 11 consecutive years, and farmers' incomes grew rapidly for 11 consecutive years, playing an important supporting role in the stable development of the social economy. However, as the economy enters a new normal, the internal and external environment for China's agricultural development is also undergoing profound changes. “In the future, we can no longer pursue a ‘12th consecutive increase,’ or even a ‘20th consecutive increase.’ We must accelerate the transformation and upgrading of agriculture.”
Why can we no longer pursue consecutive grain output increases and must accelerate the transformation and upgrading of agriculture? Qian Keming believes: first, the overdraft of resources and the environment is severe, and the development mode must be changed as soon as possible; second, the consumption structure has changed, and the industrial structure needs corresponding adjustment; third, the impact of the international market has deepened, and support and regulation policies need further improvement; fourth, the drivers of growth have changed, and transformation and upgrading have a certain foundation.
“China's agriculture is undergoing transformation. We should go with the trend, proactively adjust development goals, transform the development mode, deepen reform, and accelerate the upgrading of traditional agriculture to modern agriculture.” So how should the agricultural development mode be transformed and rural reform deepened? Qian Keming offered the following suggestions:
First, scientifically formulate the “13th Five-Year Plan” goals to ensure food security. Qian Keming said that it is predicted that by 2020 China's total grain demand will be about 720 million tons, with maximum production capacity of about 650 million tons. However, in order to leave room for structural adjustment, mode transformation, and ecological protection, the “13th Five-Year Plan” could maintain annual grain output at 610 million tons, with the shortfall supplemented through imports. In 2020, the self-sufficiency rate of grain (including soybeans) could remain at about 85%.
Second, optimize the industrial structure and improve agricultural efficiency. Optimize the planting and breeding structure, increase the supply of animal products, and gradually achieve a balance between grain and forage, integration of farming and animal husbandry, and circular development; improve the modern agricultural industrial system, promote the linkage of production, processing, and sales, and the integration of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries; adjust the layout of agricultural productivity, promote regional rebalancing, reduce back-and-forth transportation of raw materials and products, lower costs, and reduce the carbon footprint.
Third, transform the development mode and promote sustainable agricultural development. It is necessary to promote resource-saving agricultural technologies, achieve zero growth in the use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides, and improve water resource use efficiency; comprehensively advance standardization and improve the quality and safety level of agricultural products; build a new type of operating system and improve competitiveness.
Fourth, adjust policy goals and improve support and regulation methods. Qian Keming said that China's current agricultural support policy goal is to increase output, and the policy orientation is to encourage farmers to increase input. “In the future, policy support should be further increased, and the direction of support should achieve ‘two transformations,’ namely guiding the production mode toward a more water-saving, fertilizer-saving, pesticide-saving, high-quality, safe, ecological, and efficient sustainable direction, and guiding the operating mode toward a modern agricultural direction featuring scale, standardization, specialization, branding, organization, and informatization, and cultivating farmers to form a ‘resource-saving, environment-friendly, and smart-management’ production and operating mode.” At the same time, Qian Keming emphasized the need to deepen reform of the agricultural product price formation mechanism and improve the market regulation system; deepen agricultural and rural reform to provide good policy and institutional guarantees for the development of modern agriculture.