What does agricultural development rely on? Accelerating the cultivation of successor forces is key

Currently, the main factors supporting the improvement of China's comprehensive agricultural production capacity are undergoing profound changes. From the perspective of agricultural inputs, China's fertilizer and pesticide use per unit area has reached 3.6 times and 2.5 times the world average, respectively, and in the future it can no longer rely on increasing fertilizer and pesticide use to raise agricultural output. From the perspective of resources and the environment, in the future it is not only no longer possible to expand agricultural production by overdrawing resources and the environment, but agricultural production that exceeds the carrying capacity of resources and the environment must also be withdrawn. From the perspective of support measures, the prices of China's major agricultural products have exceeded the prices of imported agricultural products, and the intensity of "amber box" support linked to production or trade behavior has approached the upper limit of China's commitments upon joining the World Trade Organization. The space for continuing to stimulate agricultural production by raising minimum purchase prices and temporary storage prices and increasing subsidies has clearly narrowed. From the perspective of business models, as young and middle-aged rural labor continues to move outward, the aging of the agricultural labor force, the sidelining of agriculture, and the concurrent operation of farm households are becoming increasingly serious. The potential for continuing to rely on small-scale, part-time farm households to provide more agricultural products is already very limited.

Faced with the profound changes in the internal and external conditions of agricultural development, the Central Economic Work Conference and the Central Rural Work Conference held at the end of last year emphasized that it is necessary to unswervingly accelerate the transformation of the agricultural development model, quickly shift to intensive development that gives equal weight to quantity, quality, and efficiency, focuses on improving competitiveness, focuses on agricultural technological innovation, and focuses on sustainability, and take the path of modern agricultural development featuring efficient output, safe products, resource conservation, and environmental friendliness. To implement this requirement, the core lies in accelerating the cultivation of successor forces for agricultural development that conform to the laws of the market economy, the conditions of resource endowments, and the requirements of sustainable development.

Replace the external pulling force weakened by the "ceiling" constraint with the internal driving force of agricultural structural optimization. Faced with the capping constraints of the two "ceilings" of prices and subsidies, promoting agricultural development should rely more on market forces and enhance the vitality of agricultural development by optimizing structure and improving quality and efficiency. Optimizing the agricultural structure should have new concepts and new mechanisms, shifting from production orientation to consumption orientation, from generic products to branding, and from thinking solely in terms of cultivated land to addressing the entire national land and resources. Adapting to the development trend of the continuously rising share of animal husbandry in agriculture, it is necessary to accelerate the integration of agriculture and animal husbandry, transform the traditional dual planting structure of grain and cash crops into a ternary planting structure of grain, cash crops, and feed crops, and improve the efficiency of resource conversion within agriculture and comprehensive operating returns. Introduce modern industrial organization methods such as industrial chains and value chains into agriculture, and promote the integrated development of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries. Promote the integration of informatization and agricultural modernization, use big data to provide all-round services for new types of agricultural business entities, and use new business forms such as e-commerce to help local specialty "small products" enter the national large market.

Offset the production capacity withdrawn due to ecological and environmental governance with the newly added production capacity from high-standard farmland construction. Taking the sustainability of the ecological environment as an important goal of agricultural modernization requires adjusting the use of cultivated land in areas with serious pollution and severe groundwater overexploitation, implementing a new round of returning farmland to forest and grassland, and carrying out orderly fallowing and recuperation of cultivated land. Withdrawing these "unhealthy production capacities" requires not only solving the long-term livelihood problems of farmers in the affected areas, but also avoiding a major impact on national agricultural production. To this end, it is necessary to strengthen cultivated land quality and infrastructure construction, take further improving the efficiency of agricultural water and soil resource use as the core, and concentrate efforts on building high-standard farmland with level land, fertile soil, concentrated contiguous plots, complete facilities, supporting agricultural electricity, a good ecology, and strong disaster resistance, especially by supporting the advancement of agricultural water rights system and water price reform, and using economic means to mobilize farmers' enthusiasm for developing water-saving irrigation.

Respond to the reduction of agricultural inputs such as chemical fertilizers with the improvement of total factor productivity in agriculture. In 2014, the contribution rate of scientific and technological progress to China's agriculture was 56%, more than 20 percentage points lower than that of developed countries, and there is still great potential to improve agriculture's total factor productivity by relying on scientific and technological progress. On the one hand, improve the use efficiency of inputs such as chemical fertilizers and pesticides, reducing quantity without reducing effectiveness. Improve the level of scientific fertilization, carry out soil testing and formula fertilization according to soil characteristics and crop fertilizer requirements, and promote the use of fertilizers with high concentration and good slow-release and controlled-release effects. Actively carry out specialized and mechanized unified prevention and control of crop diseases and insect pests, and research, develop, promote, and apply pesticide varieties that are efficient, low-toxicity, and low-residue. On the other hand, vigorously develop light-duty technologies with a low materialization rate. Make the modern seed industry bigger and stronger, and accelerate the construction of agricultural biological breeding innovation and promotion and application systems. Strengthen integrated scientific and technological innovation and promotion and application in fields such as efficient cultivation, disease prevention and control, and agricultural water conservation. Increase technical training for farmers and improve their level of scientific farming and livestock raising.

Resolve localized land abandonment through appropriately scaled operations. As the main family labor force shifts to non-agricultural employment and agriculture's contribution to family income growth declines, some small-scale part-time farm households will choose extensive management or even abandon their land. Localized land abandonment should be resolved through appropriately scaled operations. Advance the reform of the "separation of three rights" of ownership, contracting rights, and management rights, accelerate the pace of confirming, registering, and issuing certificates, so that contracting households can transfer management rights with confidence and operators can engage in agricultural production steadily. At the same time, implement the new-type professional farmer cultivation project. To develop appropriately scaled operations, family farms should be the main form, and "appropriateness" should be the basic principle.