The veterinary vaccine market will expand by 20 billion yuan within 10 years

Benefiting from the continuous increase in the scale of farming and the epidemic prevention policy of "prevention first, culling as supplementary", the U.S. animal vaccine industry entered a period of vigorous development from 2001 to 2009, with the market size rapidly doubling from 600 million USD to 1.2 billion USD, and the compound annual growth rate reaching 9%, far higher than the 5% growth rate of the animal health industry during the same period. Afterwards, due to the implementation of the "culling first, prevention as supplementary" defense system, it gradually entered a period of steady development.

China's animal vaccines will usher in a golden period of market-oriented development, with great room for growth. Comparing and studying the animal vaccine markets of developed countries and the development history of China's human vaccine industry, it is found that China's animal vaccine market can be compared to the period of great development of the U.S. animal vaccine market from 2001 to 2009, as well as the period of rapid quadrupling of China's human vaccine market from 2005 to 2009. The author judges that after experiencing the rapid development period of government-procured vaccines over the past 10 years, China's animal vaccine industry will enter a period of great development for market-based vaccines in the next 10 years, and the market size is expected to rise from the current 9 billion yuan to more than 30 billion yuan, with huge room for growth.

The author believes that four major factors will drive the development of the animal health industry, and "rising volume and price together" will boost the performance of high-quality companies in the industry. The animal vaccine industry has high entry barriers, and the scale of the farming industry is a sustained driving force for the development of the animal vaccine industry; product innovation and upgrading of production processes lay the foundation for the great development of high-quality market-based vaccines; the expectation of market-oriented reform of government-mandated immunization vaccine procurement and bidding, as well as innovation in the marketing models of market-based vaccines, stimulate market demand for high-quality vaccines; the animal vaccine market is relatively closed, which is conducive to the development of domestic leading enterprises, ultimately forming a situation of the strong remaining strong and oligopolistic monopoly. The "rising volume and price together" of market-based vaccines for major varieties drives the growth of industry scale and company performance.

With the rapid development of the industry, the author believes that the market size of the five major varieties, namely foot-and-mouth disease, highly pathogenic avian influenza, highly pathogenic porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome, classical swine fever and porcine circovirus vaccines, can increase from the current 2.5 billion to 3 billion yuan, 1.8 billion yuan, 1.2 billion yuan, 700 million yuan, and 1.2 billion to 1.4 billion yuan to 10.3 billion yuan, 2.7 billion yuan, 2.7 billion yuan, 1.3 billion yuan and 3.5 billion yuan respectively, with huge room for growth.

Specifically, the market-based foot-and-mouth disease vaccine is still yet to be developed and is a key area of future corporate competition; the competitive landscape of avian influenza vaccines is stable, and suspension culture is the future breakthrough; there are many manufacturers of classical swine fever and porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome vaccines, with fierce competition, and they are expected to be the first to withdraw from the scope of mandatory immunization, and genetically engineered porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome vaccines are expected to break through and win; porcine circovirus vaccine is the largest conventional vaccine variety, with low market penetration, mainly dominated by foreign-funded enterprises, and there are great opportunities for substitution by domestic enterprises.