Rapeseed planting area shrinks, output may fall by around 10%

Entering April, rapeseed is nearing the market across China. Because wheat prices were ideal in the summer and autumn of last year, planting returns were clearly higher than those for rapeseed, causing China's rapeseed sown area to shrink further. In addition, poor weather during the rapeseed growing period caused some areas to suffer certain losses in per-unit yield, so a reduction in this year's domestic rapeseed output is already a foregone conclusion.

Rapeseed planting is being widely replaced by wheat

⟦NL> Although in recent years China has adopted a policy of purchasing and storing rapeseed to support prices, in the Yangtze River basin of China the planting returns for rapeseed are still much lower than those for wheat. According to last year's policy prices, the minimum purchase price for wheat was 1.18 yuan/jin, and with a per-unit yield calculated at 800 jin, the income per mu reached 944 yuan; while the temporary storage purchase price for rapeseed was 2.55 yuan/jin, and with a per-mu yield calculated at 300 jin, the income per mu was only 765 yuan. In terms of income per mu, growing crops such as wheat brings higher returns than rapeseed, so this year China's rapeseed planting area has continued to decline.

The level of mechanization in rapeseed planting is relatively low

Judging from crop planting choices in recent years, farmers have gradually come to prefer varieties with a high degree of mechanization. The level of mechanization in rapeseed planting is relatively low, and it still relies widely on manual labor, while wheat has a higher degree of mechanization, saves time and effort, and brings better income. Therefore, in terms of planting, wheat continues to encroach on rapeseed area. At the same time, because some farmers in the south have less cultivated land, while planting rapeseed requires manual labor and brings lower income, some young and middle-aged farmers go out to work and choose to abandon cultivation of their land, or switch to growing economic crops such as grapes that do not require careful tending, which has also affected the rapeseed planting area.

Farmers take a wait-and-see attitude toward policy adjustments

With the piloting and promotion of the target price system for agricultural products such as domestically produced soybeans in Northeast China and cotton in Xinjiang, rapeseed growers are taking a wait-and-see attitude toward whether this year's rapeseed purchase policy will change. Relatively speaking, the state has always attached importance to food security, and the state has made clear that the minimum purchase price policy for grains such as wheat will remain unchanged, so some rapeseed growers chose wheat, which they felt more assured about, and reduced rapeseed planting.

Unfavorable weather during the rapeseed growing period affects output

At present, the main rapeseed production areas in the Yangtze River basin of China are in full bloom. Because of excessive rainfall earlier, pollen abortion has appeared in rapeseed fields in some areas. Although the proportion is not high, it will still affect the output harvest to a certain extent. In addition, persistent precipitation has occurred in Hubei and other places over the past 1 month, adding more expectations of reduced output to the final yield.

There are still certain variables in the final rapeseed output

At present, domestic rapeseed is in the final growth and harvest stage, and there is still some time before the harvest period. Although the sown area in places such as Jingzhou, Hubei has decreased by around 20%, if the weather in the next 1.5 months is ideal, it can still play a certain role in restoring output through per-unit yield.

Based on the data currently surveyed, the rapeseed per-unit yield in some areas of Hunan and Hubei is slightly better than last year, and governments in rapeseed-producing areas such as Hubei have given rapeseed growers certain support policies such as subsidies for seeds and agricultural machinery, in order to stimulate stable rapeseed planting. This will also improve the extent of the rapeseed output reduction to a certain degree.