Analysis of Seed Production, Supply and Demand Trends for Spring and Summer Planting

The National Agricultural Technology Extension Service Center recently held the 2015 Spring Regular Meeting on the Production, Supply and Demand Situation Analysis of Major Crop Seeds in Changchun City, Jilin Province. The meeting analyzed this year's seed market operation dynamics, coordinated the seed production intentions for spring and summer planting crops and the current field growth of autumn and winter planting crops, consulted on the 2015 production, supply and demand situation of major crop seeds, and made arrangements and deployments for related work.

Seed Market Operation Trends for Spring and Summer Planting Crops

The overall characteristics of this year's national seed market for major spring and summer planting crops are that the seed demand structure shows “two increases, two stable, two decreases”; market seed supply is abundant, quality levels have improved, seed prices are generally flat compared with last year, market competition is fierce, and sales and service models are accelerating their transformation.

⟦NL> Seed Demand Structure Shows a “Two Increases, Two Stable, Two Decreases” Trend

According to forecast scheduling, under the general background of “transforming methods and adjusting structure” and guided by market demand, the national planting area using seeds for major spring and summer planting crops shows the following characteristics: the area using seeds for corn and conventional rice will increase somewhat, the area using seeds for soybean and potato will remain basically stable, and the area using seeds for hybrid rice and cotton will decline. The estimated total demand for commercial seeds of each crop for spring and summer planting is respectively: about 1.2 billion kg of hybrid corn seeds, 210 million kg of hybrid rice seeds, 6.3 million kg of hybrid cotton seeds, 95 million kg of commercial conventional cotton seeds, 700 million kg of commercial conventional rice seeds, and 300 million kg of commercial soybean seeds.

Major Crop Seeds Are of Good Quality and Sufficient Quantity

According to scheduling from various regions, the seed supply for each crop is sufficient and can fully meet the seed demand for spring and summer agricultural production, while the “two hybrids” seeds as a whole remain seriously in surplus. This year's total supply of commercial seeds for major spring and summer planting crops nationwide is respectively: 2 billion kg of corn seeds, 337 million kg of hybrid rice seeds, 830 million kg of conventional rice seeds, 490 million kg of soybean seeds, 7 million kg of hybrid cotton seeds, and 140 million kg of conventional cotton seeds; both the total volume and the supply of the vast majority of varieties exceed demand. It is expected that after the spring and summer planting season ends, the period-end inventory of corn seeds will fall back to near the upper limit of the inventory warning line, but the period-end inventory of hybrid rice seeds will still be 10% higher than the inventory warning line.

Prices Stable and Variety Renewal Speeding Up

Overall, seed market prices are basically flat compared with last year, and seed prices are increasingly diverging between regions and varieties. Seed prices in South China and Southwest China are stable with slight increases, seed prices in Northwest China, East China and North China are basically flat, and seed prices in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Huang-Huai-Hai region are stable with slight decreases. This year's prominent market features are: first, newly approved varieties are priced relatively high and spread across suitable regions on a large scale as soon as they are launched; second, rice varieties with excellent quality, corn varieties suitable for mechanical grain harvesting, specialty-use varieties and varieties that performed excellently last year have seen price increases and are favored by farmers; third, market-leading varieties from previous years have declined to varying degrees in most regions. At present, the national retail price levels of seeds are as follows: hybrid corn 24.7 yuan/kg, hybrid rice 63.83 yuan/kg, conventional rice 6.63 yuan/kg, soybean 6.52 yuan/kg, hybrid cotton 237.56 yuan/kg, and conventional cotton 30.3 yuan/kg.

Seed Marketing Service Models Accelerating Transformation

In recent years, the traditional multi-level agency sales and storefront “counter-selling” marketing model has been undergoing transformation, and enterprises have increased their efforts in sales and model innovation. There are four representative newly emerging methods: first, “reservation-style” sales based on viewing crops. Many enterprises carefully set up variety planting demonstration fields, organize farmers to observe on site at the planting fields, and negotiate and sign presale contracts with farming households. Second, “order-style” sales of products. Enterprises with high-quality varieties directly connect with large growers and expand seed sales through buyback of agricultural products. Third, “barrage-style” sales through visual media. Some enterprises cooperate with television stations and other media units to intensively broadcast variety display and service advertisements in prime time slots, winning farmers' recognition and conducting direct seed sales. Fourth, “integrated-style” sales combining e-commerce and physical stores. Enterprises make full use of the internet and traceability management to provide growers with full-process solutions, turning physical stores into experience stores and service stations. The common feature of these new sales models is strengthening after-sales service, reducing circulation links, and giving profits to growers, so they are welcomed by millions of households and are showing a trend of “sparks starting a prairie fire” across the country.

Seed Production and Propagation Situation of Major Crops

The meeting scheduled the seed production intentions of seed enterprises across the country and the trends of seed production bases. Overall, this year the layout of “two hybrids” seed production has been further optimized, spring seed production enterprises are generally becoming more rational, and the production order of major bases has improved noticeably, but some enterprises are still blindly impulsive, and the pressure of overproduction of “two hybrids” seeds remains relatively large.