Why does ordering a chicken require waiting nearly a year?

Last year on "Double 11," as the news of "selling over ten million Qingyuan chickens in a single day" made headlines across major websites, the development of rural e-commerce in the eastern, western, and northern regions of Guangdong also became a hot topic. Taobao came, JD.com came... and the accompanying "astronomical" orders are gradually activating rural productivity. Chen Baifang, vice president of Qingnong Company, said that his company sold 8.57 million Qingyuan chickens on last year's "Double 11," and to date about 70% have still not been delivered. (Southern Metropolis Daily, April 13)

This is a positive-energy news story. Once the rural e-commerce layout is completed, the blockage between agricultural by-products and the market is cleared, and all parties benefit and are delighted. Under the concept of "Internet Plus," agriculture "going online" is of course the general trend. In fact, the "secret war" among e-commerce giants in China's rural areas began long ago. Alibaba announced its "Thousand Counties, Ten Thousand Villages" plan last year, investing 10 billion yuan over 3 to 5 years to establish 1,000 county-level operation centers and 100,000 village-level service stations; JD.com also clearly stated that sinking its e-commerce business into the rural market and the related logistics layout is one of its important strategies this year.

However, the example that proves "Qingyuan chickens" sell well because of the internet leaves one with mixed feelings. Qingnong E-commerce was founded on November 6, 2014, and five days later it coincided with the arrival of "Double 11." On that day, Qingnong E-commerce sold a total of 8.57 million Qingyuan chickens online in a single day. However, of the 8.57 million "Qingyuan chickens" sold on "Double 11" in 2014, less than 30% have been supplied to date, and about 70% have still not been delivered. "It will take us another 6 months to deliver all of those more than 8 million chickens from 'Double 11.'" In other words, the "Qingyuan chickens" sold on "Double 11" in 2014 may not be fully shipped until September or October 2015.

Being able to sell Qingyuan chickens as futures is certainly a skill. But from the perspective of consumer psychology and market rules, there are probably still several issues that need to be considered:

First, were the customers who pre-ordered these millions of "Qingyuan chickens" fully aware of the reality of delayed delivery before placing their orders? Having to wait nearly a year at the latest before they can eat the "Qingyuan chickens" from their orders -- does this de facto hunger marketing respect consumers' legitimate rights and interests, and does it understand the essence of e-commerce transactions being fast and convenient? Or, after the novelty wears off, how sustainable is this kind of marketing?

Second, it is said that the local goal "is to sell 300 million Qingyuan chickens annually after 2018." What does 300 million Qingyuan chickens mean? According to statistics from the relevant Qingyuan City Chicken Association: in recent years, the annual slaughter volume of Qingyuan chickens in Qingyuan City has been roughly 45 million to 50 million. This means that in the next 3 years, the slaughter volume of Qingyuan chickens in Qingyuan City must achieve explosive growth of several times in order to meet the demand of Qingnong E-commerce. To expand the breeding scale five or six times and achieve such a goal in just two or three years -- for farmers, how should the risk-return ratio be calculated?

With the wings of e-commerce, "Qingyuan chickens" can naturally turn from pheasants into phoenixes. However, two points should still be remembered: the market is always changing rapidly, and although regional agricultural products have a certain degree of irreplaceability, they ultimately lack rigid consumer demand. The advantage of e-commerce lies in being short, flat, and fast. Waiting half a year for a chicken is perhaps not a long-term trend. What's more, in recent years, 10,000 tons of carrots went unsold in Shenyang, and 10,000 mu of cucumbers attracted no buyers in Hainan... examples of cheap grain hurting farmers are too numerous to count. Order agriculture is logically safe, but just like bank deposits and savings, it ultimately only has a lower risk coefficient; there is no concept of absolute zero risk.

Selling chickens is not easy, and agriculture "going online" must follow market rules even more. One thing is certain anyway: if people had known earlier that the "Qingyuan chickens" from "Double 11" would still be shipping for more than half a year, do a survey if you don't believe it, and see how many die-hard fans would still be "no chicken, no joy"?