Corn import trend set to slow, feed output growth to decelerate over next 10 years
According to an official forecast report released by China's Ministry of Agriculture, China's soybean imports in 2024 are expected to reach 82.66 million tons, up 15.8% from the 2014 import volume. However, over the next 10 years China is expected to net import only small quantities of rice, wheat and corn.
The China Agricultural Outlook Report (2015-2024), released by the Market Early Warning Expert Committee of China's Ministry of Agriculture, shows that China's feed output will grow slowly over the next 10 years, and is expected to reach 227.06 million tons by 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 1.5%, which is lower than the average annual growth rate of 7.3% over the past 10 years. China's meat consumption growth will also be lower than in the past 10 years, which will also mean that pork imports in 2024 will be less than 1 million tons, while beef and mutton imports will each be less than 500,000 tons.
The report says that as long as domestic supply is sufficient, China's corn imports in 2024 are unlikely to exceed the quota limit of 7.2 million tons. Prior to this, the US Department of Agriculture had already lowered its forecast for China's corn imports in 2024/25 to 7.2 million tons, abandoning its earlier forecast that China's corn imports would surge sharply.
The report points out that China will import 3.2 million tons of rice in 2024, up 25% from 2014. Wheat imports in 2024 are expected to be 2.8 million tons, down 5.7% from 2014.
Analysts point out that China has made progress in raising wheat and corn yields per unit area, but increases in rice and soybean yields per unit area have been limited, and soybean yields per unit area remain very low compared with the world average.
The report shows that China's cotton imports in 2024 are expected to be 2.08 million tons, down 14.8% from 2014, because of declining Chinese textile exports and growing use of cotton substitutes.
China's white sugar imports in 2024 are expected to be 5.83 million tons, up 45% from 2014, mainly because of declining domestic output and growing demand. China's dairy imports in 2024 will reach 16 million tons, with an average annual growth of 3%, which is lower than the average annual growth rate of 15.5% over the past 10 years, because China's domestic output is expected to grow at 2% per year.