The per capita net income of farmers is expected to reach about 11,000 yuan this year
The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences held a press conference on the 22nd for the 2015 "Rural Green Book" and a symposium on the analysis and forecast of China's rural economic situation. At the meeting, Du Zhixiong, deputy director of the Institute of Rural Development under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that in 2015 farmers' income can still maintain relatively rapid growth, and it is predicted that the per capita net income of farmers will reach about 11,000 yuan.
Speaking about the forecast of the main indicators of agricultural and rural economic operation in 2015, Du Zhixiong said that grain will continue to maintain a growth trend, but the increase will continue to narrow. It is predicted that the total grain output in 2015 will be 610 million tons, an increase of about 0.5%. Oil crops will increase slightly, sugar crops will decrease by a certain margin, and the decrease in cotton may be relatively large. It is expected that oil crop output will be 35.6 million tons, an increase of about 1%. Sugar crop output will be about 130 million tons, a decrease of about 3%, and cotton output will be about 5.8 million tons, a decrease of about 6%. Livestock products and aquatic products will continue to maintain a growth trend. It is predicted that the total meat output in 2015 will be about 89 million tons, an increase of about 2.2%, of which pork output will be about 57 million tons, an increase of 0.5%. It is predicted that aquatic product output in 2015 will be about 67 million tons, an increase of about 4%.
He pointed out that producer prices of agricultural products will continue a downward trend on the basis of a slight decline in 2014. It is predicted that in 2015 the overall producer prices of agricultural products will decline by about 3%, of which grain producer prices will decline by about 1%, and fishery product producer prices will rise by about 2%. Food consumer prices will decline slightly year on year. It is predicted that in 2015 food consumer prices will decline by about 2% year on year, of which grain consumer prices will decline by about 1%, postal consumer prices will decline by about 5%, the consumer prices of meat, poultry and their products will decline by about 3%, and vegetable consumer prices will decline by about 4%. Aquatic product consumer prices, however, will show the opposite trend, rising by 2% overall. The scale of agricultural product imports will continue to expand. In 2015 the scale of agricultural product imports and exports will continue to expand. The agricultural product international trade surplus may decrease to within 50 billion US dollars.
Du Zhixiong believes that the per capita net income of farmers will continue to maintain moderate growth. It is expected that in 2015 farmers' income can still maintain relatively rapid growth, and it is predicted that the per capita net income of farmers will reach about 11,000 yuan. According to the ratio of per capita disposable income calculated under the new statistical scope to the per capita income of farmers, these two ratios will further narrow to 2.9:1. The actual growth rate of the added value of the primary industry will be flat with 2018, and its share of gross domestic product may fall below 9%. It is expected that the added value of the primary industry will be about 6 trillion yuan, with the growth rate maintained at 4%.