The agricultural information monitoring and early-warning system should be improved as soon as possible

Reported by our newspaper, journalist Qiao Jinliang: What is an agricultural outlook? What is the significance of releasing the production, consumption, price and trade trends of majoragricultural productsat the China Agricultural Outlook Conference? Xu Shiwei, Secretary-General of the Market Early-Warning Expert Committee of the Ministry of Agriculture and Director of the Agricultural Information Institute of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, accepted an interview with a journalist of Economic Daily on relevant issues during the 2015 China Agricultural Outlook Conference.

Xu Shiwei said that an agricultural outlook is a regulatory means of assessing changes in the supply and demand situation of the agricultural product market over a future period and, by releasing market signals, guiding agricultural production, consumption and trade activities. Holding an agricultural outlook conference and releasing an agricultural outlook report is a common practice in developed countries. The United States has held 91 agricultural outlook conferences since 1923 and releases an outlook report every year, effectively grasping the discourse power in international agricultural product pricing; the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development have jointly held 10 agricultural outlook conferences, exerting a profound impact on the global agricultural product market.

“China is a major producer and consumer of agricultural products, and urgently needs to strengthen its discourse power in the international market and safeguard its core agricultural interests. Periodically releasing agricultural outlook reports has become an important means of demonstrating the ‘major-country effect’. The construction of China’s agricultural information monitoring and early-warning system began to move onto a track of specialized development in 2002. This agricultural outlook activity was carried out on the basis of many years of research and exploration and is an important measure for adapting to the internationalized, informatized and market-oriented development of agriculture.” Xu Shiwei said that carrying out China’s agricultural outlook must both draw on advanced international experience and conform to China’s national and agricultural conditions. Through 5 to 10 years of effort, it is necessary to establish an agricultural information monitoring and early-warning system centered on monitoring core data on the operation of important agricultural product markets, analysis and early warning, information release and information services for producers and operators, continuously improve agricultural management and service capabilities, and enhance the capacity for sustained and healthy development of the agricultural and rural economy. In addition, it is also necessary to accelerate the improvement of the agricultural information monitoring and statistics mechanism, the agricultural information analysis and early-warning mechanism and the agricultural monitoring information release mechanism.