Seed market oversupply situation remains prominent
The National Agricultural Technology Center recently held the spring regular meeting for analysis of the production, supply and demand situation of major crop seeds nationwide in 2015. The meeting analyzed the dynamics of this year's seed market operations, scheduled the seed production intentions for spring and summer sown crops, and consulted on the production, supply and demand situation of major crop seeds in 2015.
Seed demand shows "two increases, two stable, two decreases"
The overall characteristics of this year's national spring and summer sown major crop seed market are: the seed demand structure shows "two increases, two stable, two decreases", market seed supply is abundant, quality levels have improved, seed prices are generally flat compared with last year, market competition is fierce, and sales and service models are accelerating their transformation.
⟦NL> According to forecast scheduling, under the background of "transforming modes, adjusting structure" and guided by market demand, the sown area using seeds of major crops nationwide for spring and summer sowing shows the following characteristics: the area using seeds for corn and conventional rice will increase somewhat, the area using seeds for soybean and potato will remain basically stable, and the area using seeds for hybrid rice and cotton will decline.
The total commercial seed demand for each crop in spring and summer sowing is estimated as follows: about 1.2 billion kg of hybrid corn seed, 210 million kg of hybrid rice seed, 6.3 million kg of hybrid cotton seed, 95 million kg of commercial conventional cotton seed, 700 million kg of commercial conventional rice seed, and 300 million kg of commercial soybean seed.
Major crop seeds are of good quality and sufficient quantity
According to scheduling from various regions, the seed supply for each crop is sufficient, and the two hybrid seeds as a whole remain seriously in surplus. This year's total national seed supply for major crops in spring and summer sowing is as follows: 2 billion kg of corn seed, 337 million kg of hybrid rice seed, 830 million kg of conventional rice seed, 490 million kg of soybean seed, 7 million kg of hybrid cotton seed, and 140 million kg of conventional cotton seed. Both the total volume and the supply of the vast majority of varieties exceed demand.
It is expected that after spring and summer sowing ends, the ending inventory of corn seed will fall back to near the upper limit of the inventory warning line, but the ending inventory of hybrid rice seed will still be 10% higher than the inventory warning line.
Variety renewal is accelerating
Overall, seed market prices are basically flat compared with last year, and seed prices are increasingly diverging between regions and between varieties. Seed prices in South China and Southwest China are stable with some increases, seed prices in Northwest China, East China's north, and Southeast China are basically flat, and seed prices in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Huang-Huai-Hai region are stable with some declines.
This year's market has three prominent characteristics: first, newly approved varieties are priced relatively high and are spread over large areas in suitable regions as soon as they are launched; second, rice varieties with excellent quality, corn varieties suitable for mechanical harvesting, specialty-use varieties, and varieties that performed excellently last year have seen price increases and are favored by farmers; third, market-leading varieties from previous years have declined to varying degrees in most regions. The current national retail price levels for seeds are as follows: hybrid corn 24.7 yuan/kg, hybrid rice 63.83 yuan/kg, conventional rice 6.63 yuan/kg, soybean 6.52 yuan/kg, hybrid cotton 237.56 yuan/kg, conventional cotton 30.3 yuan/kg.
Marketing service models are accelerating their transformation
In recent years, the traditional level-by-level agency sales and storefront "sit-and-sell" marketing models are undergoing transformation, and enterprises have increased efforts in sales and model innovation. There are four representative newly emerging methods:
First, looking at the crop "pre-order" sales. Many enterprises carefully set up variety planting demonstration fields, organize farmers to visit the planting fields for on-site observation, and negotiate and sign pre-sale contracts with farming households.
Second, product "order-based" sales. Enterprises with excellent-quality varieties directly connect with large growers and expand seed sales through buyback of agricultural products.
Third, visual media "barrage-style" sales. Some enterprises cooperate with television stations and other media units to intensively broadcast variety display and service advertisements in prime time slots, winning farmers' recognition for direct seed sales.
Fourth, e-commerce and physical stores "integrated" sales. Enterprises make full use of the internet and traceable management to provide growers with full-process solutions, turning physical stores into experience stores and service stations. The common feature of these new sales models is strengthening after-sales service and reducing circulation links, giving profits to growers, so they are welcomed by thousands of households and show a trend of "sparks starting a prairie fire" across the country.