What are the trends in China's agricultural development over the next 10 years?

What will China's agricultural development look like over the next 10 years? At the 2015 China Agricultural Outlook Conference held recently, the "China Agricultural Outlook Report (2015-2024)", mainly drafted by the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences and officially released in the name of the Market Early Warning Expert Committee of the Ministry of Agriculture, provided an outlook on the trends in China's agricultural product production, consumption, prices and trade over the next 10 years. A series of figures clearly outlined the "future tense" of Chinese agriculture.

China's food security will be guaranteed over the next 10 years

For a long time, China's food security issue has attracted much attention. This report shows that over the next 10 years China can achieve the food security goal of "basic self-sufficiency in grains and absolute security of staple food rations."

The report predicts that over the next 10 years, China's grain sown area will remain generally stable, and the comprehensive grain production capacity will be further enhanced. By 2024, China's total sown area of rice, wheat and corn is expected to remain stable at more than 1.36 billion mu, output is expected to reach 580 million tons, and total consumption is expected to be 600 million tons. Among these, by 2024, rice output is expected to remain stable at about 206 million tons, equivalent to about 145 million tons of milled rice, with rice staple food consumption expected to be 114 million tons; wheat output is expected to reach 129 million tons, with wheat staple food consumption expected to be 89 million tons; corn output is expected to reach 244 million tons, with corn staple food consumption expected to be 7 million tons, and supply and demand balance will be achieved through a moderate increase in imports. During the outlook period, China's grains will maintain a reasonable self-sufficiency rate, and the two staple food ration varieties, rice and wheat, will be more than self-sufficient for staple food consumption.

Zhang Hecheng, deputy director of the Market Early Warning Expert Committee of the Ministry of Agriculture and director of the Department of Market and Economic Information of the Ministry of Agriculture, pointed out at the meeting that according to the above data, over the next 10 years China's grain production must increase policy support, protect and mobilize both the enthusiasm of farmers for farming and growing grain and the enthusiasm of major production areas for valuing agriculture and focusing on grain, transform grain production methods, and make great efforts to stabilize output and raise production capacity.

Most agricultural products will steadily increase in output

The report predicts that over the next 10 years, the production of major agricultural products in China, such as grains, oilseeds, vegetables, fruits, meat, poultry eggs, dairy and aquatic products, will continue to develop steadily. Among these, grain output will grow at an average annual rate of 0.6%; by 2024, soybean, rapeseed and peanut output will increase by 15.6%, 8.8% and 14.2% respectively compared with 2014; vegetable and fruit output are expected to increase by 6% and 12% respectively compared with 2014, and meat, poultry egg, dairy and aquatic product output are expected to increase by 16%, 11%, 24% and 19% respectively compared with 2014. In contrast, affected by declining comparative returns and policy adjustments, cotton production area and output are expected to decrease by 15% and 8% respectively compared with 2014; sugar output will also decline to a certain extent, and is expected to be 12.23 million tons in 2024.

"The report analyzes that China's consumption of major agricultural products will maintain relatively rapid growth, and the supply and demand of China's agricultural products will remain generally balanced." Zhang Hecheng said that over the next 10 years, rice consumption will grow at an average annual rate of 0.3%; wheat consumption will grow at an average annual rate of 0.6%; corn consumption will grow at an average annual rate of 3.1%; per capita direct vegetable consumption will grow at an average annual rate of 1.0%; fruit consumption will grow steadily, with per capita consumption expected to reach 93.9 kg in 2024; sugar and meat consumption will continue to grow slightly, expected to approach 18 million tons and 100 million tons respectively in 2024; the growth rate of edible vegetable oil consumption will slow, expected to reach 33.13 million tons in 2024; dairy product consumption will continue to grow, expected to increase by 30% in 2024 compared with 2014.

Launching the agricultural outlook is of great significance

Following the release of the first "China Agricultural Outlook Report (2014—2023)" by the Agricultural Information Institute of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences at the first China Agricultural Outlook Conference last year, this year's "China Agricultural Outlook Report (2015—2024)" was released for the first time in the name of the Market Early Warning Expert Committee of the Ministry of Agriculture. Experts present pointed out that the release of this outlook report provided a good grasp of the overall situation of the agricultural product market and was of milestone significance.

Xu Shiwei, director of the Agricultural Information Institute of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, said that in recent years China has vigorously strengthened the construction of its agricultural outlook system, and facts have proven that China has the basic conditions for holding an agricultural outlook, and the Agricultural Information Institute of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences already has the capacity for China's agricultural outlook. To plan agricultural development in the future under the background of globalization, it is necessary to accelerate analysis, forecasting and release of agricultural information, enhance the right to speak in the international market, and, while safeguarding China's core agricultural interests, continue to make new contributions to world food security.