Wheat planting: plant and see, a shift in direction is inevitable

“The national government's announcement of next year's temporary wheat storage price is meant to give us large grain growers a ‘reassurance pill’, but we also have to weigh the future market prospects.” Although, as in previous years, conventional wheat varieties were sown on 400 mu of land, Cao Hengyin, a large grain grower in Luobai Village, Shuangdun Town, Changfeng County, Anhui Province, was still very “torn”: if he does not grow grain, the land transfer fee is contractually agreed and must be paid to the farmers; if he continues to grow grain, he fears losing even more. “I think about switching to other cash crops, but I do not know what to do in the future either.”

During the autumn and winter planting season, Cao Hengyin was not the only one who was “torn”. For Anhui's large grain growers, this year brought an unprecedented “double test”: during the summer harvest, the unsound kernel rate of wheat generally exceeded the standard in 21 key counties along the Huai River, and Anhui launched temporary storage for the first time to solve the “difficulty of selling grain”; right now, corn prices have also fallen to rock bottom. Faced with declining grain-growing returns, should they continue to grow grain? If they grow less grain, what else can they switch to? Many large grain growers have been doing a lot of thinking this autumn.

“Land is expensive and grain is cheap”, grain-growing returns are squeezed from both sides

“This year's summer-harvest wheat sold at a low price, and the autumn-harvest corn also cannot fetch a good price. The comparative returns from growing grain are getting lower and lower.” said Zhang Qifeng, a large grain grower in Lunan Village, Shuangjian Town, Mengcheng County. “The risks are getting bigger and bigger. If you also lack some management experience, it becomes even harder to keep growing grain.” Land transfer prices are getting higher and higher, agricultural materials, fertilizer and labor wages are also rising, while grain prices are falling.

“When the transfer fee was signed, the rent per mu was set according to the grain price. Now that grain prices have fallen, by rights the rent should be paid according to the grain price, but the farmers do not agree.” Wang Qiong, a planting business owner in Chengguan Town, Si County, told reporters indignantly.

“This year's grain market situation has had a certain impact on enthusiasm for growing grain, but at present it is impossible to judge how big the impact is.” A relevant person from the Anhui Provincial Planting Industry Bureau said that the reality of farmers having a bumper harvest without a bumper income will certainly dampen planting enthusiasm for the coming year.

⟦NL> Growing grain cannot be “single-tracked”; one must watch the market and adjust the structure

Although the national government's early announcement that the 2016 temporary wheat storage price would be flat with this year is good news, many large grain growers are still thinking about a way out.

Liu Chuansheng, a large grain grower in Qilitang Village, Dingyuan County, transferred 1500 mu of land to grow grain. “Growing grain this year, each mu of land will bring at least 400 yuan less in returns than in previous years.” Liu Chuansheng said that looking at the grain-growing situation over the past two or three years, he has already decided to set aside part of the land for seed production. He has already reached a cooperation agreement with a seed company and must take the path of improved seed breeding.

“Land transfer may be reshuffled in this round of economic transformation.” Chen Zhigang, an agricultural materials dealer in Feidong County, told reporters that among the large grain growers he serves, some already intend to exit planting, but some others want to step in.

“In the future, large grain growers must keep careful accounts, and may place more emphasis on practical and management experience.” said Han Yi, deputy governor of the Agricultural Development Bank of China Anhui Branch. As land transfer accelerates, land will gather into the hands of “professional farmers”. Only after agricultural business entities undergo the washing and tempering of the market economy can they move toward rationality and maturity.

“This year's situation is pushing us even harder to put the transformation of agricultural production methods on the agenda.” sighed Xu Congxiang, one of the National Top Ten Farmers and a large grain grower in Fuyang. Only by changing the traditional blind way of growing grain and, with scientific concepts and market-oriented thinking, striving to grow “scientific and technological grain” and “contract grain”, can agricultural risks be minimized.

It is worth noting that Anhui's agricultural departments have already begun work related to adjusting the structure and transforming the methods. This year, for the first time, a pilot project for potato yield-increasing models was carried out in the rice areas along the Yangtze River, exploring a new path for regional agricultural structural adjustment, while also advancing research on green grain yield-increasing models.