Grain shortfall of 200 billion jin by the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan; raising production capacity is the top priority

“A grain shortfall of 200 billion jin by the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan”

Focus on the “13th Five-Year Plan”

According to expert forecasts, by 2020 China's grain demand will be about 1.4 trillion jin, leaving a shortfall of about 200 billion jin. Steadily raising grain production capacity must be the top priority in accelerating the transformation of the agricultural development model.

Our reporter Ding Jun reports from Beijing

Agricultural products The coexistence of rising inventories and rising imports may be changed during the “13th Five-Year Plan” period.

Han Changfu, Minister of Agriculture, wrote in an article in the People's Daily on November 25 that, according to expert forecasts, by 2020 China's grain demand will be about 1.4 trillion jin, leaving a shortfall of about 200 billion jin. Steadily raising grain production capacity must be the top priority in accelerating the transformation of the agricultural development model.

To this end, pilot programs for a farmland crop rotation and fallow system will be explored to ensure “basic self-sufficiency in grains and absolute security of staple food rations.” Domestically, it is necessary to appropriately increase imports of agricultural products, strengthen regulation of agricultural product imports and exports, properly manage the scale and pace of agricultural product imports, actively support the export of competitive agricultural products, and achieve effective allocation of domestic and international resources and coordinated use of domestic and international markets.

The above statement of “ensuring basic self-sufficiency in grains and absolute security of staple food rations” has already been expressed in the central “13th Five-Year Plan” planning recommendations.

This differs somewhat from the formulations in the central “12th Five-Year Plan” recommendations, such as “taking safeguarding national food security as the primary goal” and “implementing the national plan for adding 100 billion jin of grain production capacity.”

In this regard, Li Guoxiang, a researcher at the Institute of Agriculture of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that although China currently has shortfalls in grains such as soybeans, grains in general are actually assured. The current situation is that grain output is too large, and storage has become a problem once it is produced. The next step is to let some farmland undergo crop rotation and fallowing. “From the perspective of future development trends, staple food rations consumption will become less and less, and 800 million mu of high-standard farmland will be enough.” he said.

Building 800 million mu of high-standard farmland

During the “13th Five-Year Plan” period, increasing grain output will no longer be particularly emphasized. The central “13th Five-Year Plan” recommendations proposed adhering to the strictest farmland protection system, holding the farmland red line, implementing the strategy of storing grain in the land and in technology, raising grain production capacity, and ensuring basic self-sufficiency in grains and absolute security of staple food rations.

Han Changfu wrote in his article that at present, about 2/3 of China's farmland is low- and medium-yield, and most of it still depends on the weather. It is necessary to advance land consolidation, the transformation of low- and medium-yield farmland, and high-standard farmland construction on a large scale, and build 800 million mu of high-standard farmland by 2020.

The next step is to give full play to the guiding role of subsidy policies, carry out pilot programs for converting grain to feed and for combined planting and breeding models, improve the systems of benefit compensation for major grain-producing areas, farmland protection compensation, and ecological compensation, and improve the effectiveness of agricultural subsidy policies.

Reform the agricultural product price formation mechanism. Pay attention to giving play to the role of the market in forming prices, continue implementing the minimum purchase price policy for rice and wheat, improve the temporary purchase and storage policy for important agricultural products such as corn, do a good job in the target price pilot for soybeans and cotton, and actively carry out pilot agricultural product price insurance.

Li Ninghui, director of the Policy Office of the Institute of Agriculture of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, pointed out that China's current grain shortfall mainly refers to the annual import of tens of millions of tons of soybeans and other agricultural products. As staple grains, some grain varieties are seriously in surplus, such as corn, which has long been in surplus.

Simply expanding basic staple food rations production is actually of little significance, because current storage capacity is limited. Storing grain among the people means letting farmers store some grain, and the state can provide some subsidies. “If some varieties are in surplus, then some land can be considered for fallowing.” he said.

At present, China's three major staple grains include corn, rice and wheat. In 2014, China's rice and wheat output totaled 332 million tons, which means staple food rations totaled 1.33 jin per person per day, meeting basic demand.

Shortfalls in non-staple grains can be adjusted through imports

Han Changfu pointed out in the article that grain output can be adjusted according to market demand, but grain production capacity must be ensured and consolidated and improved.

He pointed out that during the “13th Five-Year Plan” period, greater attention should be paid to coordinating the two markets and two types of resources and improving agricultural competitiveness. According to domestic needs, appropriately increase imports of agricultural products, strengthen regulation of agricultural product imports and exports, properly manage the scale and pace of agricultural product imports, actively support the export of competitive agricultural products, and achieve effective allocation of domestic and international resources and coordinated use of domestic and international markets.

This means that during the “13th Five-Year Plan” period, after ensuring the security of major grains and staple food rations, some grain can rely on imports.

Li Guoxiang, a researcher at the Institute of Agriculture of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that it is still very necessary for China to import soybeans. Because international market prices are lower, and at present, to ensure domestic staple food rations and grain security, 800 million mu of high-standard fertile farmland is enough.

In the face of corn in oversupply, the next step of carrying out pilot programs for converting grain to feed and combined planting and breeding models is to convert some corn into feed for cattle and sheep.

“Judging from the current more than 2 billion mu of farmland, leaving 100 million to 200 million mu fallow each year is not a big problem, but this requires state fiscal subsidies to farmers. Considering that domestic grain prices are still relatively high, in the future the state can solve the problem of grain surplus by giving farmers more subsidies rather than by adjusting purchase and storage prices.” Li Guoxiang said.

It is introduced that at present the landed price of Thai rice along the coast is even cheaper than domestic rice prices, while the landed import price of corn is even only half of the domestic price. Domestic corn purchased and stored at high temporary prices is about 1 yuan per jin, which makes domestic processing enterprises using corn as a raw material bear relatively high costs.

Ma Wenfeng, an analyst at Oriental Agritrade, pointed out that the next step should be to raise grain productivity and create conditions for reducing excessively high agricultural costs.