Corn emergence later than last year, caused by sustained low temperatures

Sustained low temperatures delay corn emergence compared with last year

“The corn was planted half a month ago, but because of low temperatures and frequent rain, it has not yet emerged; in previous years at this time it already had several leaves.” On May 18, it was still raining, and although the Start of Summer solar term had passed, Uncle Gui of Jiancao Village, Erba Town, Hulan District, Harbin, was still shivering a little.

Uncle Gui was somewhat worried about his two hectares of corn. If this kind of rainy weather continued for a while longer, the planted corn would develop seed rot, and he felt these two hectares might need replanting. In Uncle Gui's view, after such a setback, the autumn corn yield would inevitably be affected to some extent.

In northwestern Heilongjiang, many corn growers, like Uncle Gui, have been troubled by low temperatures and worried about the autumn corn harvest.

At Beian Garden Farm, several farmers who were planting corn told reporters that local temperatures this year were on the low side and sowing was later than in previous years; sowing had only just begun on May 19, nearly half a month later than last year. A farmer surnamed Zhang told reporters that because corn sowing was later than last year, output was expected to decline.

In Sunwu County, a corn trader also told reporters that as of May 19, about 70% of local corn sowing had been completed, with rain delaying planting progress. He also worried that late sowing would affect corn output.

According to a farmer in Xigangzi Town, Heihe City, as of May 20, local corn planting progress had reached 90%, while last year on May 6 the corn had already fully emerged. This was mainly due to continuous rainfall earlier this year; if temperatures did not rise by the end of May, replanting would be impossible. The farmer said last year's corn yield was about 24,000 jin per hectare, and a slight decline was expected this year.

Similar to the corn planting situation in Heilongjiang, in Qijia Village, Nierji Town, Mo Banner, Inner Mongolia, local villagers said corn sowing had already finished this year, but due to lower temperatures, emergence was 15—20 days later than last year.

Among the areas the delegation passed through from May 18 to 23, almost no emerged corn was seen on the western route, while most of the eastern route was in the early emergence stage, with emergence relatively good, roughly 2—3 leaves. “Corn planting on the eastern route was basically completed around early May, slightly later than in previous years. However, the corn varieties are mainly early-maturing or mid-early-maturing varieties such as South America 7 and Deyuya, with a growth period of about 115 days, so sowing before June can basically guarantee the corn growth cycle. If weather conditions remain stable later, this year's seedling condition will be fairly good. Although temperatures are slightly low, the impact on later corn growth and yield will be limited.” a grain trader in Heilongjiang told reporters.

There are many people as optimistic as this grain trader. Some farmers also told reporters that, based on historical experience, rainy weather during the emergence stage generally does not significantly affect the final corn yield.

Land rent rises noticeably, corn becomes the first choice for planting

Profit determines farmers' planting preferences. Last year's corn purchase and storage supported prices, and with policy support at the bottom, farmers generally hold a relatively optimistic attitude toward the price of new corn in 2015. Driven by planting returns, the phenomenon of switching from the traditional soybean main producing areas of Heilongjiang to corn is very prominent, and this is also very obvious in Mo Banner, Inner Mongolia. In addition, with land rent costs rising noticeably, many farmers this year tend to plant corn, which has higher returns.

In Beian, a grain trader told reporters that last year the local soybean planting area accounted for about 90% of cultivated land. However, because soybean prices fell sharply, at the lowest point this year only 1.65 yuan/jin, the soybean planting area this year was expected to drop to about 20%. By contrast, corn has higher per-unit yield and guaranteed prices, and local corn planting area this year was expected to hit a record high.

A grain trader in Sunwu County estimated that the soybean planting area would fall by more than 30% compared with last year. In Wushipu Village, Qiqihar City, a villager told reporters that five years ago the area mainly planted soybeans, but now it basically plants corn, with soybeans rarely seen, because the benefits of corn planting are far higher than those of soybeans.

A villager in Qijia Village, Nierji Town, Mo Banner, Inner Mongolia, told reporters that in previous years the area mainly planted soybeans; last year local corn planting accounted for about 10%, while soybeans accounted for 90%. However, because soybean planting returns were poor last year, the soybean and corn planting situation reversed this year, and soybean planting was concentrated on plots with poor terrain.

Ms. Zhou is a grower in Hongxin Village, Baoqing Town, Baoqing County, Shuangyashan City, Jiamusi. Her family's more than ten hectares of land were all planted with corn this year. “We also planted soybeans last year, but this year all were switched to corn. The returns from corn are noticeably higher than from soybeans. Surrounding farmers who can plant corn will never plant soybeans.” Ms. Zhou told reporters.

In conversations with farmers, reporters learned that in 2015 land rent in most areas of Heilongjiang rose compared with last year, while some areas remained stable; fertilizer and other prices fell slightly, and other costs were flat compared with the previous year. However, because last year's corn harvest was abundant and sales prices were relatively high, farmers were highly motivated to plant corn while ensuring planting profit.

It is understood that corn output in most areas of Heilongjiang is 24,000—26,000 jin/hectare, the price of wet grain is 0.71—0.75 yuan/jin, and income is generally 17,000—19,500 yuan/hectare. After deducting planting costs of 9,000 yuan—10,000 yuan/hectare (including land rent), farmers' income from planting corn is 7,000 yuan—10,500 yuan/hectare.

A Ms. Zhang from Team 29 of Heilongjiang 597 Farm said that because of last year's bumper corn harvest, land rent this year rose by about 10% compared with last year, from 4,500 yuan/hectare to 5,000 yuan/hectare, while other costs remained basically unchanged or even fell slightly. This was mainly due to lower oil prices, with machinery, urea and other expenses declining slightly.