Why the food issue cannot be measured in economic terms alone
More than 1.3 billion mouths to feed, every meal matters, not a single day can go without food. Food security cannot be measured by economic accounts alone; it must also be measured by people's livelihood.
Does the fact that grain has been harvested abundantly for years on end mean we can ease off on the drive to grow grain?
Based on the Ministry of Agriculture's crop monitoring and actual harvests across the country, the summer grain harvest is expected to reach a new high, laying a solid foundation for a bumper harvest for the whole year. With the support of the Party's policies to strengthen agriculture and benefit farmers, China's grain output has achieved an “eleven consecutive increases,” and last year grain output stabilized at the 1.2 trillion jin level for the second time. As this year's summer grain harvest is once again abundant, some people sigh that since grain has yielded such high harvests for so many years, there is no need to keep pushing so hard on grain production. Such a sign is unacceptable; we must keep a very clear head.
Grain is the foundation of all industries. China has more than 1.3 billion mouths to feed, every meal matters, not a single day can go without food, and food security has a particularly prominent and special significance for economic and social development. As the saying goes, “Of the eight principles of governance, food is the first.” Solving the problem of feeding the Chinese people has always been the top priority of governance, and we must ensure that grains are basically self-sufficient and that staple foods are absolutely secure.
Abundant grain harvests for years on end do not mean grain is in surplus. At present, demand for agricultural products in China, including grain, is showing rigid growth. According to estimates, as China's total population grows, the share of urban population rises, residents' consumption levels improve and industrial uses of agricultural products expand, China now needs to add roughly 20 billion jin of grain per year. From the medium- and long-term perspective, grain supply remains in a state of tight balance.
An increase in grain inventories likewise does not mean grain is in surplus. The increase in national grain inventories is mainly because corn output has increased considerably in recent years. In addition, with the grain market liberalized, individual households and ordinary enterprises rarely store grain anymore, and grain reserves depend mainly on the state. Experts predict that by 2020 China's grain demand will be about 1.4 trillion jin, with a gap of 200 billion jin.
To address the grain gap, using imported grain as a necessary supplement and moderate adjustment is realistic. But if most grain supply were resolved through imports, that would be a serious problem. Global grain trade volume is limited, roughly 500 billion to 600 billion jin per year, about half of China's total grain output. The annual international market trade volume of rice is 40 billion to 60 billion jin, only about 15% of China's consumption. The total supply of grain in international trade is limited; we absolutely cannot rely on buying grain to get by.
Too much, too little; too little, too much -- we cannot afford to be tossed about on the grain issue. Not to mention the distant past, such as the three years of natural disasters in the 1960s that left people starving; just consider the late 1980s and the beginning of this century, when relaxing grain production also put the national economy and social development in a passive position. Therefore, as long as no major problem arises with grain, China's affairs can remain stable. The central government's clearly defined national food security strategy of “taking our own as the mainstay, basing ourselves on domestic production, ensuring production capacity, importing moderately and relying on technological support” must be held high and firm.
Grain production must not be relaxed for a single moment. China uses 10% of the world's arable land and about 6% of its freshwater resources to feed 20% of the world's population. These are enormous achievements that shine in the annals of history. It is precisely such achievements that earned the Chinese government a certificate from the United Nations Millennium Development Goals for reducing hunger, and the UN Food and Agriculture Organization has highly praised China.
The food issue cannot be measured by economic accounts alone; it must also be measured by people's livelihood. On this issue, we cannot leave things to chance, and we cannot be tossed about.