The grain issue cannot be reckoned only in economic terms; it must also be reckoned in terms of people's livelihood.
More than 1.3 billion mouths, every meal must be fed, not a single day can be broken; food security cannot be reckoned only in economic terms, it must also be reckoned in terms of people's livelihood.
⟦NL>⟦NL> Does the fact that grain has been harvested abundantly for years in a row mean we can ease up on the drive to grow grain?
Judging from the Ministry of Agriculture's crop-condition monitoring and the actual harvests in various places, the summer grain harvest is expected to hit a new high, laying a solid foundation for securing a bumper grain harvest for the whole year. With the support of the Party's policies to strengthen agriculture and benefit farmers, China's grain output has achieved an "eleven consecutive increases," and last year grain output stabilized at the 1.2 trillion jin level for the second time. As this year's summer grain once again enjoys a bumper harvest, some people sigh with feeling that since grain has achieved such high yields for many years, there is no need to strain so hard in pursuing grain production. This kind of tendency is unacceptable; we must keep a very clear head.
Grain is the foundation of all industries. China has more than 1.3 billion mouths, every meal must be fed, not a single day can be broken, and food security has especially prominent and special significance for economic and social development. As the saying goes, "Of the eight principles of governance, food is the first." Solving the problem of feeding the Chinese people has always been the top priority of governance, and we must ensure basic self-sufficiency in cereals and absolute security of staple grains.
Years of consecutive bumper grain harvests do not mean grain is in surplus. At present, demand for our agricultural products, including grain, is showing a rigid growth trend. According to rough estimates, as China's total population increases, the proportion of urban population rises, residents' consumption levels improve and industrial uses of agricultural products expand, China now needs to increase grain by roughly 20 billion jin each year. From the medium- and long-term perspective, grain supply remains in a state of tight balance.
An increase in grain stocks likewise does not mean grain is in surplus. The increase in national grain stocks is mainly because corn output has increased considerably in recent years. In addition, with the grain market liberalized, individual households and ordinary enterprises rarely store grain anymore, and grain reserves mainly rely on the state. Experts predict that by 2020 China's grain demand will be about 1.4 trillion jin, with a shortfall of 200 billion jin.
To address the grain shortfall, using imported grain for necessary supplementation and moderate adjustment is realistic. But if most grain supply were to be resolved through imports, that would be very problematic. Global grain trade volume is limited, roughly 500 billion to 600 billion jin per year, about half of China's total grain output. The annual rice trade volume on the international market is 40 billion to 60 billion jin, accounting for only about 15% of China's consumption. With the total supply of internationally traded grain limited, we absolutely cannot live by buying grain to eat.
Too much then too little, too little then too much; we cannot afford to keep tossing the grain issue back and forth. Not to mention the distant case of the three years of natural disasters in the 1960s that left people starving, just consider the late 1980s and the beginning of this century, when relaxation of grain production also left the national economy and social development in a passive position. Therefore, as long as no major problems arise with grain, China's affairs can remain stable. The central government's clear national food security strategy of "taking ourselves as the mainstay, basing ourselves on domestic supply, ensuring production capacity, importing moderately and relying on scientific and technological support" must be firmly held high.
Grain production must not be relaxed for a single moment. China uses 10% of the world's arable land and about 6% of its freshwater resources to feed 20% of the world's population. These are enormous achievements that shine in the annals of history. It is precisely such achievements that earned the Chinese government the certificate for the United Nations Millennium Development Goal on reducing hunger, and the UN Food and Agriculture Organization has highly praised China.
The grain issue cannot be reckoned only in economic terms; it must also be reckoned in terms of people's livelihood. On this issue we cannot leave things to chance, and we cannot keep tossing it back and forth.